1/ Correlation Risk Premium: International Evidence (Faria, Kosowski, Wang)

"Our results support the existence of a global correlation risk premium that is priced in international equity option markets."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Image
2/ "We construct a correlation risk proxy based on the difference between the option-implied correlation of stock returns (obtained by combining index option prices with prices of options on all index constituents) and the realized correlation for different equity markets." ImageImageImageImage
3/ "For the individual variance risk premiums and 30 day maturities, we find generally stronger evidence of economic and statistical significance than for the index variance risk premiums." ImageImage
4/ "Using US and European data, we find that the average implied correlations are economically and statistically higher than the realized correlations, which lends support to a positive correlation risk premium." ImageImage
5/ "Results suggest a strong co-movement among CRs across European and US equity markets. The underlying co-movement could constrain diversification opportunities during periods of enhanced turbulence in international equity markets, when “there is no place to hide.” " ImageImageImage
6/ "A global correlation risk premium can explain most of the cross-sectional variation of index option returns. Our conclusion regarding the statistical significance of the correlation risk premium does not change if we add the global average individual variance risk premium." ImageImageImage
7/ "Our results are consistent with those of Kelly et al., who find that options provide valuable protection against risks associated with major political events, including elections and summits.

"The lagged correlation risk premium has a positive effect on its current level." ImageImageImage
8/ "Almost all average implied (IC) and realized (RC) correlations are larger during the 2008 to 2012 period than during 2002 to 2007, reflecting the effects of the global financial crisis.

"Results are robust to the use of an ex-ante measure of realized correlation." ImageImage

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More from @ReformedTrader

7 Oct
1/ Quant Cycle (Blitz)

"Traditional business cycle indicators do not capture much of the cyclical variation in factor returns. Major turning points seem to be caused by changes in sentiment instead. We infer a Quant Cycle directly from factor returns."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ "Altogether, the 1/N mix of factors has virtually the same return during expansions and recessions.

"The simple 1/N mix is again remarkably stable with respect to inflationary and non-inflationary periods, with practically the same return in both regimes."
3/ "Factor returns appear to be solid regardless of the ISM business outlook.

"The investor sentiment index appears to be more effective. However, computing investor sentiment in real time is not easy, given the required inputs, and the resulting scores can be counterintuitive."
Read 8 tweets
7 Oct
1/ Impact of Impact Investing (Berk, van Binsbergen)

"Current ESG divesture strategies have little impact on on the cost of capital of affected firms. Instead of divesting, socially-conscious investors should invest and exercise their rights of control."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2/ "Using the most optimistic estimates, we show that to effect a more than 1% change in the cost of capital, impact investors would need to make up more than 80% of all investable wealth. Given the low likelihood of this, our results question the effectiveness of disinvestment.
3/ "Given that the set of companies targeted comprise only 18% of the market, socially conscious investors could purchase stock & effect change through the proxy process or by gaining a majority stake and replacing upper management. This would require less than 50% participation.
Read 12 tweets
28 Sep
1/ Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision-Making (Dawes)

"Even improper linear models are superior to clinical intuition when predicting a numerical criterion from numerical predictors. In fact, unit (i.e., equal) weighting is quite robust."

uwe-mortensen.de/DawesRobustBea…
2/ "In proper linear models, predictor variables are weighted such that the resulting linear composite optimally predicts some criterion of interest; examples of proper linear models are standard regression analysis, discriminant function analysis, and ridge regression analysis.
3/ "Research summarized in Paul Meehl's book on clinical vs. statistical prediction—and a plethora of research—indicate that when a numerical criterion (e.g., graduate GPA) is to be predicted from numerical predictor variables, proper linear models outperform clinical intuition.
Read 13 tweets
27 Sep
A few real estate investors made a lot of money in 2009 and 2010, but they didn't do it because prices rebounded quickly from a low. (In the U.S., prices peaked in 2005 and went into a six-year downtrend.)

They did it by buying houses at large discounts of 30% to 50% + repairs.
There is momentum in real estate like in everything else: trends from last year tend to continue.

But even where we do see mean-reversion (one-month time frames in individual stocks), it takes a portfolio of hundreds of positions to capitalize on this statistically weak effect.
I don't know of any trading strategy that can generate reliable returns by trading a single, individual asset (one stock, one house, etc.) using its past price data.

Real estate investors get around the lack of diversification by getting huge discounts.
Read 18 tweets
26 Sep
1/ US Inflation and Global Asset Returns (Dai, Medhat)

"While average real returns were lower in years with higher inflation for most assets, many of the differences are not statistically reliable, especially among non-bond assets & in more recent times."
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Image
2/ "Our conclusion that most asset classes have limited inflation-hedging abilities is consistent with the literature. Bodie (1976), Fama & Schwert (1977), & Fama (1981), among others, find that nominal stock returns are negatively related to expected & unexpected U.S. inflation. Image
3/ "Gultekin (1983) & Beckers (1991), among others, find similar evidence outside the US. Fama & Schwert (1977) also find (i) that nominal returns to government bonds and bills are only positively related to expected inflation and
Read 17 tweets
24 Sep
1/ Betting Against Quant: Examining the Factor Exposures of Thematic Indices (Blitz)

"Investors in thematic indices trade against quants, who prefer stocks that are currently cheap & profitable. Negative factor exposures imply low expected returns."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Image
2/ "Our sample includes all S&P and MSCI thematic indices with at least 3 years of data as of end April 2021.

"Our conclusions should not be generalized to thematic investing in general, since our analysis is exclusively based on data from two index providers." ImageImage
3/ "The history has backfilled data, as the first S&P thematic indices were launched in 2016; MSCI indices were launched as recently as 2020. Backfilled returns are probably biased upwards (e.g. survivorship bias), but this is less of a concern for estimating factor exposures."
Read 12 tweets

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