Thread by @JoshRosenau

1) The thing about “popularism” is that voters respond to authenticity and narrative a lot more than most polls capture. People favor candidates whose policy platforms reflect the authentic concerns of the candidate and the electorate. (Context: nytimes.com/2021/10/08/opi…)

2) Polling is often quite sensitive to question wording and weird context. A question about the age of the Earth preceded by questions about math and gravity will get different result than one preceded by questions about prayer or religious doctrine.

3) More people say the world was created *by god* less than 10,000 years ago than say the world is less than 10,000 years ago. It isn’t logical! You can’t just add up poll percentages and learn what people think!

4) John Kerry in 2004 had a lot of popular ideas, but he lost in part because people didn’t believe he’d actually do them. The “flip-flopper” label stuck because people had concerns and that message crystallized a narrative. Voters want candidates who stand for something.

5) If you adopt policies because they’re popular, it opens the possibility that you’ll abandon the constituencies they benefit if those policies or groups get less popular. Why should I entrust you with my proxy to vote in Congress if your views will change with the next poll?

6) Having some unpopular positions actually helps sell that. It shows what you believe and will fight for. Especially if those unpopular views represent what you think your electorate is becoming, or tells a coherent story with other stances.

7) So, obsessing over half a point in differences among polling on two variants on a policy issue, or even a six point margin, is harmful relative to using your policy stances to enhance the narrative of a candidate and a party.

8) Even if a means-test is slightly more popular than a universal program, imposing the test says something about your view of the world and what problem you’re solving. A means test says that some people don’t deserve nice things and it’s government’s job to decide.

9) Leaving a child tax credit universal says “we know parenting is hard and expensive and we want to help.” Means testing it says “we know parenting is hard and some people can’t take care of their kids without help.” Really different!

10) You can run a campaign on both grounds and you can probably win both ways. But one of those is the Democratic party I want to be part of, one isn’t.