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11 Oct, 22 tweets, 5 min read
By the beginning of 2021, America had two COVID vaccines that had emergency authorization from the FDA. By March, we had three.

It's October now. Let's look at which states had the most and the least COVID deaths this year when adjusting for population.
This chart shows the deaths per 100k residents for each state, along with the Census Region and Division, how the states voted in the 2020 Presidential Election, vaccination rates, population density and if local authorities were prohibited from issuing mask/vaccine mandates.
8 of the 10 states with the highest percentages of their populations dying from COVID in 2021 have less than half of their populations fully vaccinated.
The two exceptions, Florida and Arizona, are states in which the state government prohibited local municipalities or schools from issuing COVID health measures such as mask mandates or vaccine requirements. Arizona's attempt to do this in its schools was struck down in September.
And here are the ten states in which the lowest percentages of their populations died of COVID in 2021. 9 of the 10 have more than half of their population fully vaccinated. 7 of the 10 have more than 55% fully vaccinated. 4 of the 10 have more than 60% fully vaccinated.
The 3 states among those with the lowest number of 2021 COVID deaths that also have less than 55% of their populations fully vaccinated are states that happen to have relatively low population densities. North Dakota, Alaska (where a COVID crisis is happening now) and Utah.
So since I mention population density, let's ask, is it just a matter of how closely or far apart people live together that determines how much of the population dies from COVID? No.

The most densely populated jurisdiction is DC, which has the 11th lowest 2021 COVID death rate.
But 60.8% of DC's population is vaccinated.

In contrast, Oklahoma has the 16th lowest population density - lots of open spaces. But it has the 2nd highest 2021 COVID deaths per 100k. It's 48.3% vaccinated and the state government restricts some local control measures for COVID.
Lastly, to correct for geographical factors, let's compare the 2021 deaths per capita between the states with the most deaths and their next-door neighbors.
ALABAMA borders Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida
Alabama - 200 deaths per 100k in 2021
Mississippi - 170 deaths per 100k in 2021
Tennessee - 124 deaths per 100k in 2021
Georgia - 146 deaths per 100k in 2021
Florida - 162 deaths per 100k in 2021
OKLAHOMA borders New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Texas
OK - 170 deaths per 100k in 2021
NM - 113 deaths per 100k in 2021
CO - 53 deaths per 100k in 2021
KS - 116 deaths per 100k in 2021
AR - 138 deaths per 100k in 2021
TX - 136 deaths per 100k in 2021
MISSISSIPPI borders Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee and Alabama
MS - 170 deaths per 100k in 2021
LA - 144 deaths per 100k in 2021
AR - 138 deaths per 100k in 2021
TN - 124 deaths per 100k in 2021
AL - 200 deaths per 100k in 2021
FLORIDA borders Alabama and Georgia
FL - 162 deaths per 100k in 2021
AL - 200 deaths per 100k in 2021
GA - 146 deaths per 100k in 2021
ARIZONA borders California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico
AZ - 160 deaths per 100k in 2021
CA - 112 deaths per 100k in 2021
NV - 134 deaths per 100k in 2021
UT - 53 deaths per 100k in 2021
CO - 53 deaths per 100k in 2021
NM - 113 deaths per 100k in 2021
SOUTH CAROLINA borders North Carolina and Georgia
SC - 149 deaths per 100k in 2021
NC - 99 deaths per 100k in 2021
GA - 136 deaths per 100k in 2021
WEST VIRGINIA borders Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia
WV - 145 deaths per 100k in 2021
KY - 138 deaths per 100k in 2021
OH - 117 deaths per 100k in 2021
PA - 107 deaths per 100k in 2021
MD - 76 deaths per 100k in 2021
VA - 93 deaths per 100k in 2021
LOUISIANA borders Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi
LA - 144 deaths per 100k in 2021
TX - 136 deaths per 100k in 2021
AR - 138 deaths per 100k in 2021
MS - 170 deaths per 100k in 2021
ARKANSAS borders Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas
AR - 138 deaths per 100k in 2021
OK - 170 per 100k in 2021
MO - 106 per 100k in 2021
TN - 124 per 100k in 2021
MS - 170 per 100k in 2021
LA - 144 per 100k in 2021
TX - 136 per 100k in 2021
Other similar but different states:

Missouri and Maryland have almost the exact same population and are even along the same line of latitude geographically.

Missouri had 106 deaths per 100k in 2021. 48.5% vaccinated.

Maryland had 76 deaths per 100k in 2021. 64.7% vaccinated.
Kentucky and Oregon have similar populations. A couple hundred thousand people apart.

Kentucky had 170 deaths per 100k in 2021. 48.3% vaccinated.

Oregon had 59 deaths per 100k in 2021. 61.5% vaccinated.
These may look like numbers. But these represent HUMAN LIVES.

This is the number of people, adjusted by population, who DIED. In many cases unnecessarily.
In every state in which enough data on vaccination status is available, the people hospitalized or dying from COVID today are overwhelmingly the unvaccinated. They die in every state.

But in states with higher vaccination rates, there are fewer of them.
pff.org/policy-watch/c…

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More from @TheValuesVoter

TheValuesVoter Profile picture
12 Oct
When you evaluate Jon Gruden's coaching career just from a numbers point of view, it started off really well in Oakland. Then he won a Super Bowl with the team Tony Dungy had been fired from the year before. And it went downhill from there.
He had a 38-26 record in Oakland.

Then he went to Tampa in 2002, had a 12-4 record and won the Super Bowl against his former team, the Oakland Raiders.

After that, the rest of his record with Tampa was 45-51. And like the fate most coaches eventually face, he was fired by Tampa
And then he had a very successful career as a broadcaster. He returned to coaching in 2018 for the Raiders and had a combined 22-31 record.

He coached 9 full seasons after winning the SB. And made just 2 playoff appearances. Both losses in Wild Card games.
Read 4 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
12 Oct
People can rant about "cancel culture" in regards to Jon Gruden all they want - it's isn't. But there's something else that factors in here.

The more of a distraction you are, the more you have to produce in order for it to be worth it.

His record with the Raiders was 22-31.
In contrast, people can tweet #FireTuckerCarlson all they want to. But he wins his time slot. And so his employer has a higher level of tolerance for the distractions he causes.

But if you're a distraction, expensive AND producing mediocre results, you're more expendable.
Gruden was on his fourth season with the Raiders and his team hadn't had a playoff appearance. A lot of coaches end up on the hot seat by that point even when they aren't part of any big controversies.
Read 4 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
11 Oct
One metric which has been just plain bad for Biden has been the Southwest Border migration numbers. We have had a lot of pressure on our southern border and the problem has gotten worse over the course of the year.

But a lot of Trump supporters seem to have short memories ...
We had a border crisis in 2019 that mirrored what we saw in the first part of this year although about 20% less in number. In 2019, the crisis got better starting in June; in 2021, the numbers from June through August were still bad with a slight improvement in August over July.
Here's what's funny, if you look through the Southwest Border numbers and look at the numbers in terms of what each President inherited in terms of southwest border traffic and what the number grew to at its peak during their term ...
Read 8 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
7 Oct
Let me say how I feel about the two major political parties.

Honestly, I find a lot of the aspects of the modern Democratic Party annoying.

I find a lot of the aspects of the modern Trumpist Republican Party frightening.

And I’ll take annoying over frightening. Any day!
I have never been a fan of Dem Progressives. I disagree with them in parts on policy and in parts on approach. I cringe when I hear some of them speak.

But they never tried to throw out my vote. They don’t pal around with Nazis. They haven’t tried to overthrow the government.
The modern GOP is whatever Trump says it is. They like whatever he says they like. They eat whatever he tells them to eat. It has no ideological core remaining. It exists now just to placate a bitter old man, undermine democracy and to push white nationalist rhetoric.
Read 7 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
7 Oct
I grew up around a lot of different types of people. I had friends across every spectrum - Black, White, Asian, Jewish, Muslim, etc. I got to know well folks who called themselves “Rednecks,” folks from the ‘hood and people from everywhere in between.

That’s how I like it.
I like being in environments in which everybody isn’t the same, however you apply that meaning. I’m comfortable in my own skin and am just as relaxed if I’m the only black person in a room as I am in any other situation. But I love people and am fascinated by them.
I like it when I see a bunch of people in a room all from different backgrounds. I learn a LOT from talking to people and learning to see things from other points of view. I love all people and being around all people.

But, to many people, this prospect is frightening.
Read 15 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
7 Oct
People tend to forget how difficult it is to defeat an incumbent President.

Gerald Ford was never elected President (he was appointed VP when Agnew resigned and became POTUS when Nixon resigned). One month after taking office, he alienated much of the country by pardoning Nixon.
For half of his first year in office, the US was in a recession. Then Saigon fell. Then America’s biggest city, New York, almost went bankrupt and Ford initially refused to help. The country was embroiled in bitter, sometimes violent protests over busing.
Ford had an average Gallup approval rating of 47%. When he ran for a full term in 1976, he made an incredible gaffe during a Presidential debate, saying there was no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe (which there was) and then doubled down on his misstatement.
Read 5 tweets

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