One metric which has been just plain bad for Biden has been the Southwest Border migration numbers. We have had a lot of pressure on our southern border and the problem has gotten worse over the course of the year.

But a lot of Trump supporters seem to have short memories ...
We had a border crisis in 2019 that mirrored what we saw in the first part of this year although about 20% less in number. In 2019, the crisis got better starting in June; in 2021, the numbers from June through August were still bad with a slight improvement in August over July.
Here's what's funny, if you look through the Southwest Border numbers and look at the numbers in terms of what each President inherited in terms of southwest border traffic and what the number grew to at its peak during their term ...
The month Trump was inaugurated, January, 2017, the number of border incursions along the southwest border was:

At its worst point during his term (May, 2019), the number of incursions was:

Which was a 239% increase from when Trump took office to its worst point.
The month Biden was inaugurated, January, 2021, the number of border incursions along the southwest border was:

At its worst point during his term (August, 2021), the number was:

A 166% increase from when Biden took office to its worst point.
So, the number of border incursions occurring is high. Continuously high right now. And that's Biden's responsibility to fix. It's higher than it was under Trump.

But the border numbers grew BY A HIGHER RATE from when Trump took over to its worst point than for Biden so far.
Another little secret that you won't hear from your friendly neighborhood Republican Congressman or from Fox News but you will see if you study the data:

From September, 2020 onward, each month, the southwest border numbers have been the worst they've been in at least 8 years.
So the border numbers for Biden are bad now. No argument.

But during the last five months of Trump's term they were also higher than they had ever been for him during that month of the year. That somehow didn't get as much attention.

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More from @TheValuesVoter

12 Oct
When you evaluate Jon Gruden's coaching career just from a numbers point of view, it started off really well in Oakland. Then he won a Super Bowl with the team Tony Dungy had been fired from the year before. And it went downhill from there.
He had a 38-26 record in Oakland.

Then he went to Tampa in 2002, had a 12-4 record and won the Super Bowl against his former team, the Oakland Raiders.

After that, the rest of his record with Tampa was 45-51. And like the fate most coaches eventually face, he was fired by Tampa
And then he had a very successful career as a broadcaster. He returned to coaching in 2018 for the Raiders and had a combined 22-31 record.

He coached 9 full seasons after winning the SB. And made just 2 playoff appearances. Both losses in Wild Card games.
Read 4 tweets
12 Oct
People can rant about "cancel culture" in regards to Jon Gruden all they want - it's isn't. But there's something else that factors in here.

The more of a distraction you are, the more you have to produce in order for it to be worth it.

His record with the Raiders was 22-31.
In contrast, people can tweet #FireTuckerCarlson all they want to. But he wins his time slot. And so his employer has a higher level of tolerance for the distractions he causes.

But if you're a distraction, expensive AND producing mediocre results, you're more expendable.
Gruden was on his fourth season with the Raiders and his team hadn't had a playoff appearance. A lot of coaches end up on the hot seat by that point even when they aren't part of any big controversies.
Read 4 tweets
11 Oct
By the beginning of 2021, America had two COVID vaccines that had emergency authorization from the FDA. By March, we had three.

It's October now. Let's look at which states had the most and the least COVID deaths this year when adjusting for population.
This chart shows the deaths per 100k residents for each state, along with the Census Region and Division, how the states voted in the 2020 Presidential Election, vaccination rates, population density and if local authorities were prohibited from issuing mask/vaccine mandates.
8 of the 10 states with the highest percentages of their populations dying from COVID in 2021 have less than half of their populations fully vaccinated.
Read 22 tweets
7 Oct
Let me say how I feel about the two major political parties.

Honestly, I find a lot of the aspects of the modern Democratic Party annoying.

I find a lot of the aspects of the modern Trumpist Republican Party frightening.

And I’ll take annoying over frightening. Any day!
I have never been a fan of Dem Progressives. I disagree with them in parts on policy and in parts on approach. I cringe when I hear some of them speak.

But they never tried to throw out my vote. They don’t pal around with Nazis. They haven’t tried to overthrow the government.
The modern GOP is whatever Trump says it is. They like whatever he says they like. They eat whatever he tells them to eat. It has no ideological core remaining. It exists now just to placate a bitter old man, undermine democracy and to push white nationalist rhetoric.
Read 7 tweets
7 Oct
I grew up around a lot of different types of people. I had friends across every spectrum - Black, White, Asian, Jewish, Muslim, etc. I got to know well folks who called themselves “Rednecks,” folks from the ‘hood and people from everywhere in between.

That’s how I like it.
I like being in environments in which everybody isn’t the same, however you apply that meaning. I’m comfortable in my own skin and am just as relaxed if I’m the only black person in a room as I am in any other situation. But I love people and am fascinated by them.
I like it when I see a bunch of people in a room all from different backgrounds. I learn a LOT from talking to people and learning to see things from other points of view. I love all people and being around all people.

But, to many people, this prospect is frightening.
Read 15 tweets
7 Oct
People tend to forget how difficult it is to defeat an incumbent President.

Gerald Ford was never elected President (he was appointed VP when Agnew resigned and became POTUS when Nixon resigned). One month after taking office, he alienated much of the country by pardoning Nixon.
For half of his first year in office, the US was in a recession. Then Saigon fell. Then America’s biggest city, New York, almost went bankrupt and Ford initially refused to help. The country was embroiled in bitter, sometimes violent protests over busing.
Ford had an average Gallup approval rating of 47%. When he ran for a full term in 1976, he made an incredible gaffe during a Presidential debate, saying there was no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe (which there was) and then doubled down on his misstatement.
Read 5 tweets

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