Share this page!

Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
Twitter logo
11 Oct, 5 tweets, 1 min read
good morning, this week I am obsessed with the spycraft of the peanut butter sandwich

cnn.com/2021/10/10/pol…
what if the foreign agent was allergic!!
like, how do you decide on a peanut-butter-and-classified-intel sandwich over classified-intel-and-marmalade

was it creamy or crunchy

why only half a sandwich
what would happen if a pigeon ate the classified sandwich
what if it was originally concealed in a whole sandwich and someone just got hungry

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Ariel Edwards-Levy

Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @aedwardslevy

Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
12 Oct
Whether people are willing to tell strangers their vaccine status over the phone is actually one of the things that we have an excellent way of testing -- there's CDC data to compare it to!

So far, many public polls tracking this look pretty accurate.

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021…
None of this is to say that election polling doesn't have ongoing issues, or even that polling around vaccines/mandates isn't subject to them (there are some less rosy assessments out there as well). But this is really one of the *more* directly measurable questions out there.
Read 4 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
8 Oct
survey research is so weird Image
department of aggressive quotation marks Image
where people sometimes post their thoughts Image
Read 8 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
8 Oct
no better way to realize that you are an Old than the sinking feeling of looking through 2008 polling and realizing that it really was an entirely different political era
file under:
1. wow, that's a sea change
2. "gravel clear winner"
3. ok!
4. sports jacket ImageImageImageImage
that escalated quickly Image
Read 5 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
8 Oct
This is a really, really good paragraph on how to think about What It Means For The Midterms.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/… Image
Also, this: "[T]he problem isn’t really polling. Rather, it’s the use of polls to center everything that happens in politics around those November 2022 swing voters in Wisconsin."

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
The subset of political actions that are going to meaningfully affect an election is both small and often unknowable, and yet that often becomes the primary lens through which those actions are examined, even in cases where there are other large, knowable effects.
Read 4 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
20 Sep
If you're concerned about polling's continued ability to broadly reflect the American public, this is good news:

"Polling estimates of the adult vaccination rate have been within about 2.8 percentage points, on average, of the rate calculated by the CDC."
Via: pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021…

One of the reasons election polls get so much attention (beyond the obvious) is that they serve as an external validator of polling data. Here, the CDC numbers allow us to compare the polls with a source of hard data on the actual number of shots.
(Another interesting outcome of having that data is that a couple of pollsters have recently started weighting *to* the CDC vaccination rate as a benchmark -- will be very interested to hear more on how that's playing out.)
Read 4 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
10 Sep
Feels like maybe some people have taken the (correct) premise that a disproportionately energized base on the unpopular side of an issue can shift the political calculus in their favor, and missed that the anti-vaccine faction doesn't actually seem to have intensity advantage.
e.g.
(The remaining question is whether politics is more likely to shift current views about the vaccine or whether the vaccine is more likely to shift current views about politics, and I suspect the answer to that is possibly "yes.")
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @aedwardslevy has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @aedwardslevy!

Read all threads by @aedwardslevy

:(