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Mike Honey 💉💉

@Mike_Honey_

13 Oct

Victoria outbreak update for 13 October 2021:

The Reff for Victoria is down from 1.1 to 1.0, meaning the outbreak is stable.

All the Melbourne regions are at or near 1.0. Mornington Peninsula has the highest Reff at 1.5, but it is declining.
🧵

The increase in cases today was driven by the Inner Melbourne LGAs

@VicGovDH

Here's the current snapshot of Active Clusters by category, highlighting today's new cluster - in the Housing category.

@VicGovDH recently increased the cutoff to appear in this list from 5 active cases to 10.

Read 5 tweets

Mike Honey 💉💉

@Mike_Honey_

13 Oct

Here's an analysis of the impact of vaccinations, for Singapore.

The AY.23 (Delta sub-lineage) outbreak shows no signs of slowing down - the case curve is nearly vertical. They just shot past the UK on a per-capita basis.
🧵

Deaths typically lag by 3 weeks, so this weeks record high of 49 deaths are typically from cases 3 weeks ago, when the weekly cases were less than half. So we can expect ~100 deaths per week in three weeks from now, and higher after that (unless this is the peak).

Booster shots are being rapidly deployed - given to 7.4% of the population in the last 2 weeks.

But if the population figures are accurate, the 20% unvaccinated represent around 1.2m people - plenty of hosts for AY.23 to infect yet.

Read 5 tweets

Mike Honey 💉💉

@Mike_Honey_

13 Oct

Victoria time-shifted distribution update for 13 Oct 2021:

A forecast of outcomes from severe COVID-19, based on active cases:
- hospitalisations (863* by 18 Oct)
- ICU (216* by 21 Oct)
- cases needing ventilation (173* by 23 Oct)
- deaths (404 by 2 Nov)
🧵

* As actual numbers had drifted from the forecasts for some series, I've adjusted the % Expected:
- hospitalisations now 4% (was 4.5%)
- ICU now 1% (was 1.1%)
- ventilation now 0.8% (was 0.9%)

Some shock at Victoria's death count for today, but sadly it seems in line with this forecast method.

It predicts several consecutive days with similar daily death counts towards the end of October, as the (hopeful) peak of cases rolls through the 20-day lag.

Read 4 tweets

Mike Honey 💉💉

@Mike_Honey_

12 Oct

Here's an analysis of the impact of vaccinations, for Australia, NSW and VIC.
🧵

NSW from June 2021.

Weekly cases peaked at around 120 per 100k population. Hopefully the deaths have now peaked also, as that was over 3 weeks ago.

VIC from June 2021.

Weekly cases reached 175 per 100k population. Hopefully that was the peak week of this wave, with cases dropping in recent days.

If so, the peak week of deaths is still 3 weeks away.

Read 4 tweets

Mike Honey 💉💉

@Mike_Honey_

12 Oct

Victoria outbreak update for 12 October 2021:

The Reff for Victoria is down from 1.2 to 1.1, meaning the outbreak momentum is slowing.

The regions with the highest Reff (Gippsland and Loddon Mallee) are in decline.

The key outbreak LGAs are all in decline too.

Good news!
🧵

Here are the recent cases for the Greater Dandenong LGA, where after recent steady growth, today's cases were almost half of yesterday.

Here's the current snapshot of Active Clusters by category, highlighting today's new clusters.

No new clusters for a few days now in the Healthcare category (which is a relief).

Read 5 tweets

Mike Honey 💉💉

@Mike_Honey_

11 Oct

Here's the latest variant picture for the Australian Capital Territory (ACT).

AY.30 (Delta sub-lineage, dominant in NSW) is prevalent.

AY.5 also appearing - my prime suspect for the "new Delta strain" in NSW.
🧵

Here's just AY.5 in the ACT. Note the Y-Axis is dynamic.

It appears to have been trapped in quarantine for some time (earlier than first detection in NSW), but has recently escaped into the community.

Here's the table of recent AY.5 samples in the ACT.

Possible quarantine breach around 16 Sep?

Read 5 tweets

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