The Reff for Victoria is down from 1.1 to 1.0, meaning the outbreak is stable.
All the Melbourne regions are at or near 1.0. Mornington Peninsula has the highest Reff at 1.5, but it is declining.
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The increase in cases today was driven by the Inner Melbourne LGAs
Here's the current snapshot of Active Clusters by category, highlighting today's new cluster - in the Housing category.
@VicGovDH recently increased the cutoff to appear in this list from 5 active cases to 10.
Main changes today:
+12 Launch Housing City Edge Crisis Accommodation South Melbourne*
+9 Robin Hood Inn Drouin West
+8 3612 BlueCross Glengowrie
+7 The Toolshed Bar Private Event Noojee
+6 Hello Fresh Warehouse Ravenhall
Here's an analysis of the impact of vaccinations, for Singapore.
The AY.23 (Delta sub-lineage) outbreak shows no signs of slowing down - the case curve is nearly vertical. They just shot past the UK on a per-capita basis.
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Deaths typically lag by 3 weeks, so this weeks record high of 49 deaths are typically from cases 3 weeks ago, when the weekly cases were less than half. So we can expect ~100 deaths per week in three weeks from now, and higher after that (unless this is the peak).
Booster shots are being rapidly deployed - given to 7.4% of the population in the last 2 weeks.
But if the population figures are accurate, the 20% unvaccinated represent around 1.2m people - plenty of hosts for AY.23 to infect yet.
Victoria time-shifted distribution update for 13 Oct 2021:
A forecast of outcomes from severe COVID-19, based on active cases:
- hospitalisations (863* by 18 Oct)
- ICU (216* by 21 Oct)
- cases needing ventilation (173* by 23 Oct)
- deaths (404 by 2 Nov)
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* As actual numbers had drifted from the forecasts for some series, I've adjusted the % Expected:
- hospitalisations now 4% (was 4.5%)
- ICU now 1% (was 1.1%)
- ventilation now 0.8% (was 0.9%)
Some shock at Victoria's death count for today, but sadly it seems in line with this forecast method.
It predicts several consecutive days with similar daily death counts towards the end of October, as the (hopeful) peak of cases rolls through the 20-day lag.
Dr Chant:
"It's likely to be more transmissible than previous strains, it’s associated with more hospitalisations for older age groups, but it’s not got anything that makes us more concerned about this strain versus the others."
An interesting sentence. Off script?
AY.5 is found in many countries. A lot of samples are from the UK, but note they sequence samples at a higher rate than most countries.
There it seemed to peak at 2%, vs other Delta lineages. In NSW/Sydney it is mostly up against AY.30.