1/ Podcast for your next workout or walk (interview with Dan McCarthy on Customer-based company valuation (CBCV) starts at 13.30 minutes. Better forecasting with data science. With CBCV, marketing speaks the language of the CFO.) music.amazon.com/podcasts/f33ef…—-with-daniel-mccarthy
2/ Podcasts that include a transcript have lower customer acquisition cost (CAC). There is always better word-of-mouth with a transcript. I'm much more likely to be a guest on a podcast with a transcript like Invest with the Best or Infinite Loops. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
3/ Dan McCarthy talks about a way to differentiate between a business that is creating value and one that is destroying value even though both are not profitable on a GAAP basis in this podcast. He uses the word "variable" in one important sentence. What is that sentence ?
4/ Clue: "The profit margin used in CBCV calculations should be the fully-loaded effective variable profit margin, factoring in costs like fulfillment expenses and merchant processing fees which often are not included in cost of goods sold and instead are operating expenses."
5/ "The two components of a customer’s value are: how much you spend to bring them in the door (CAC) and the value you get after they are acquired (post acquisition value of the customer or PAV). If you take PAV and subtract CAC, that's lifetime value." threadreaderapp.com/thread/1277098…

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More from @trengriffin

9 Oct
1/ In October 1945 Arthur C. Clarke published an article in Wireless World. It described a communications system of three satellites at altitude of 35,900 kilometers whose period exactly matched the earth's rotational period. I met with him only one time. celestrak.com/columns/v04n07/
2/ Orbits have different eccentricities – a measure of how circular (round) or elliptical (squashed) an orbit is. Non geostationary orbits (NGSO) can look quite odd at first like this one Boeing would like to use for a satellite system at Ka and V band.
3/ I try to include some science in my tweets since you can't understand business today without it. Another example would be propagation of radio waves at V band (40 to 75 GHz). Even oxygen creates problems at this frequency as does rain. Everything (almost) is a trade off.
Read 8 tweets
5 Oct
What business is this?
2/ What's wrong with this picture?
3/ Clue: "Capital expenditures were $592 million for the year ended December 31, 2020, compared to $773 million for the year ended December 31, 2019."
Read 4 tweets
4 Oct
1/ What business is this?
Read 4 tweets
3 Oct
A sentence I don't need to write now (already done):

"Consumers are crazy to buy things because the world is awash with dollars from government stimulus, higher savings and pent-up demand. PlayStations, laptops, phones, gym equipment – you name it people are trying to buy it,”
Systems were not set up to deal with a surge in demand of this magnitude over a time period this short. The time it will take for systems to be rebuilt and reconfigured to meet this new reality will be longer than most people imagine. Atoms must be moved. amp.theguardian.com/business/2021/…
At the same time as the demand for goods increased some key people failed to forecast the speed at which the demand for chips would increase.

Software ate the chip supply.

The best way to escape responsibility for this forecasting error is to point a finger at another cause.
Read 5 tweets
2 Oct
The best oyster in the world is a Kusshi in my view. What is your favorite?
kusshioysters.com/about/bc-oyste… Image
We are growing Kumamotos which "are worshiped for their amazing sweetness and clean, fruity aromas. These Japanese natives grow agonizingly slowly." I wish we could grow Kusshi's too. We also grow triploid Pacific oysters. buy.taylorshellfishfarms.com/oysters/kumamo…
As everyone knows, I was considered the favorite to win the West Coast Oyster Shucking Championship held this weekend every year since 1982 in Shelton Washington.

Due to the Covid pandemic the championship was virtual this year. I will "keep clam" about my practice routine. Image
Read 4 tweets
28 Sep
1/ "We're talking about math of tons -- 100 or 150? Musk says Starship has 10x the payload of Falon 9 for 15x lower cost, hundredfold better. Lots of estimates here, but they add up to "Profound," Musk says." theverge.com/2021/9/28/2269…
2/ "Starlink is good in and of itself. It’s a very nice complement and a necessary complement to 5G and fiber, and it provides a revenue stream across our next generation rocket.” Starlink really isn't designed for use in the city." Elon Musk
3/ "Starlink tops out at 3 or 4% of [global telecom] revenue. He would like a bigger chunk of the global ISP pie and then use those increased profits to fund more SpaceX work. Starlink is for the least-served 5%. It's "not a threat to 5G or fiber or anything like that.” Elon Musk
Read 4 tweets

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