Share this page!

Matt Grossmann Profile picture
Twitter logo
12 Oct, 4 tweets, 3 min read
The average swing against the president's party in the midterm election is -3.8% in share of the national House popular vote & -6.2% in House seat share. If that happened from 2020 to 2022, Dems would end up with only 47.7% of the 2-party popular vote & a 45 seat deficit Image
So far, Biden’s underwater approval has not translated into any sign of an anti-Democratic wave on the generic ballot. But research finds ballot numbers follow prez approval & a thermostatic ideological reaction against direction of policy. An R wave would be historically normal ImageImage
We’re having a 2024-appropriate election discussion when the electoral task at hand for Democrats is avoiding a massive wave against them in 2022. 1994 & 2010 were huge & impactful National & state-level waves. They were products of large public thermostatic swings, not messaging
The generic ballot (& election outcomes) move against the party of the President during the midterm election year as some voters decide to balance the party in power to moderate policy, regardless of trends in presidential approval
journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.101… Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Matt Grossmann

Matt Grossmann Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @MattGrossmann

Matt Grossmann Profile picture
12 Oct
Across Western democracies, the education divide slowly reversed from higher education voters favoring parties on the ideological right in the 1960s to favoring parties on the ideological left by 2020, easing but not reversing the income divide
academic.oup.com/qje/advance-ar… Image
In multi-party systems, the education divide coincided with the rise of Green parties on high-education left & anti-immigration parties on low-education right. In the US, factions arose within the major parties, making the 2-party education divide stronger & income divide weaker Image
Globally, party vote share among the highest educated has become more correlated with party platform positions on sociocultural issues. Party vote share among the highest income voters remains correlated with its party platform positions on economic issues
watermark.silverchair.com/qjab036.pdf?to… Image
Read 4 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
11 Oct
University department faculty sizes change slowly & may respond more to research production than grant availability

Our new paper:
researchcghe.org/perch/resource…
There are real trends in the rise & fall of disciplines, but they are slow. Trends in research university tenure-track faculty do not necessarily match trends in the much larger higher education teaching market
researchcghe.org/perch/resource…
A big source of inertia is that most research university departments are aging, with assistant professors making up a small share of tenure-track faculty (the social sciences are on the young side)
researchcghe.org/perch/resource…
Read 4 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
10 Oct
Clinton & Obama comparisons are more for 2024 than now. Both suffered massive losses in 1st midterms, linked to congressional agendas. By re-elections, they had both generic incumbency & a radicalized Republican foil (including on economics) to enable visible triangulation
Low-education voters were traditionally inattentive, meaning both lower turnout & more nature-of-the-times voting. We haven’t yet run a low turnout election or a democratic incumbent under education polarization. But basic midterm backlash dynamics may overwhelm other factors
We don’t know yet how Republicans will look in 2024 (including on economics). 1995-6 & 2011-12 Rep internal fighting (including primaries) & public image had a lot to do with Dem successes in 96 & 12. Left/center conflict could matter less or allow triangulation with Rep foil
Read 5 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
8 Oct
Nice @davidshor overview/debate & 2022/24 election simulation:
nytimes.com/2021/10/08/opi…
In my view, Shor's meta point that decision-making by high-education liberal operatives hurts Democrats is more widely important than just recommending popular issue positioning
Messaging effects are quite small & might be overemphasized:
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

But nationalization, coalition group emphasis, context effects, ideological sorting, & polarization are all very important trends that are likely to be affected by many party decisions over time
Policy agenda effects are real, though under media control. Policy position effects seem limited & specific to issues where the parties once had muddled positions. But the long-built liberal & nationalized image of the Democratic Party is very important & Dems used to resist it
Read 6 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
4 Oct
Media coverage of Congress is overwhelmingly focused on heated conflict. Coverage of social problems can be more substantive, but the focus moves to political conflict once policies are being debated

Combative Politics
press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book…
Process conflict media coverage of Congress tends to reduce bill support & highlight extremism. The dynamic is made worse by the incentives of backbenchers to generate attention on their efforts, which tends to make it harder for leaders to corral votes
niskanencenter.org/how-media-cove…
Contentious media coverage can reduce support for bills, but does not always do so. Media coverage of legislative debate never seems to increase support for bills. Coverage of heated conflict is more likely to reduce support

Combative Politics
press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book…
Read 4 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
22 Sep
2-track “plan” was not a party agreement; it was a leadership promise with implausible timing made to pass the bipartisan Senate bill followed by another leadership promise with implausible timing made to pass the budget; next is the implausible promise for Monday’s vote or delay
Biden is meeting with everyone today but we don’t know if he is whipping votes for ~Monday or asking to postpone. Seems impossible not to break one of the prior promises. But their tendency is to make more promises to get past the vote in front of them.
Unclear if there was a WH plan today to encourage either yes votes or postponement. If so, it doesn’t appear to have changed much:
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @MattGrossmann has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @MattGrossmann!

Read all threads by @MattGrossmann

:(