In DC at IMF meetings of finance ministers/central bankers as post lockdown world economic recovery gets messy

IMF just released new forecasts trimming growth prospects this year for UK and US on “longer than expected” supply disruptions and “upside risks” from rising prices...
UK growth is now forecast to be the highest in G7 in 2021 after US was downgraded more than the UK... second to US next year... this reflects welcome rebound from worst hit in G7 last year...
IMF points out pattern of global economic damage is opposite of 08-09 financial crisis, now developing countries are being hit harder, with advanced economies faring better from now, because of “greater protection against further Covid-19 shocks from more widespread vaccinations”
IMF uses UK vaccination rollout as a case study for the world in how the vaccine protects lives and the economy...
Pretty stark IMF chart on distribution of vaccines around the world...

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More from @faisalislam

4 Oct
The biggest Control-Alt-delete ever…
Maybe everybody will be randomly assigned a new set of friends when it gets back up and running again?
WhatsApp is back at least …
Read 4 tweets
4 Oct
Chancellor trying to own the “whatever it takes” phrase as his signature...

“Unfunded pledges, reckless borrowing and soaring debt” are fundamentally “un-Conservative”.. he says defending tax rises, saying tax cuts can come only when public finances on sustainable footing
Re supply chain challenges: “we are determined to tackle them head on”... Chancellor tells Conservative conference
Chancellor says his party is the party of business and the party of the worker ... smallish policy announcement on AI scholarships for disadvantaged young people...

Short speech, mainly reintroducing himself to country in normal times...
Read 7 tweets
22 Sep
US-UK trade talks were obviously going nowhere since Biden’s arrival, not because of a particular snub, but because US is not prioritising new deals at all.

It started to disappear from communiques, calls, even the Queen’s Speech.

NI protocol concerns did not help change that..
Both US Trade Rep Tai, AND her predecessor under Trump, Lighthizer were very aware/ wary that the UK’s strategic decision on closeness/distance to EU post Brexit would cut across scope for US deal...

interesting thing here, is that in brief window quick deal might have been done with Trump, Lighthizer did not appear to believe PM’s promise of hard break with EU, even tho that did transpire, on account of US perception it wouldnt be in UK’s interests:
Read 6 tweets
16 Sep
EUs trade surplus with UK first 7 months 2021, ie post Brexit trade deal, was €82.1bn, notably up from same months in 2020, €56.7bn

Driven by 17.1% or €16bn fall in UK exports to EU.
Trade into EU from every other major partner up.

EU exports to UK grew by 6.2%, or €9bn..
These are pretty stark figures from Eurostat, calculated on a slightly different basis to the UK ONS ones.

Obviously the pandemic period affects most of the 2020 figures and all of the 2021 figures, but that affected all nations.

Only UK exports are down, and significantly so.
different basis used by Eurostat vs ONS includes… not being seasonally adjusted, using International Merchandise Trade Statistics basis eg. shipping part eg engine or wing, internally to subsidiary…

But shd be able to compare UK trade in/out of EU with others on this basis
Read 7 tweets
14 Sep
NEW: Post Brexit import controls/ checks, especially on agrifood, some due to be brought in the coming weeks, mainly delayed until July 2022, the second such delay - ministerial statement by PAymaster General, blaming pandemic supply chain pressures...…
Though this was tweeted out by Cabinet Office in last hour too
Food Drink Federation unhappy with delay: “As recently as yesterday, officials assured us import checks would be implemented as planned.

“repeated failure to implement full UK border controls on EU imports since 1 Jan undermines trust and confidence - & helps UK’s competitors.”
Read 6 tweets
14 Sep
Jobs numbers out -
29.1 million employees on payroll - now back up to pre -Covid levels.
1 million plus vacancies - a record

Official quarterly unemployment rate down to 4.6%
Quite significant regional/ national differences within UK

Unemployment in London - 6%
South West - 3.3%
Back up at pre pandemic levels of payrolled employment, according to HMRC’s real time data.. was down a million, 10 months ago.
Read 5 tweets

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