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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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22 Sep, 6 tweets, 2 min read
US-UK trade talks were obviously going nowhere since Biden’s arrival, not because of a particular snub, but because US is not prioritising new deals at all.

It started to disappear from communiques, calls, even the Queen’s Speech.

NI protocol concerns did not help change that..
Both US Trade Rep Tai, AND her predecessor under Trump, Lighthizer were very aware/ wary that the UK’s strategic decision on closeness/distance to EU post Brexit would cut across scope for US deal...

interesting thing here, is that in brief window quick deal might have been done with Trump, Lighthizer did not appear to believe PM’s promise of hard break with EU, even tho that did transpire, on account of US perception it wouldnt be in UK’s interests:
That’s from my interview with Lighthizer a few months’ ago...

TL DR - we don’t appear to be at the front of the queue, but that is mainly because the queue doesn’t exist...

But if we want to join the new NAFTA (USMCA) same diplomatic concerns apply in Congress White House re NI
Also eg one of the main points of the USMCA was to force car supply chain to reshore to US by mandating manufacture by workers above a threshold wage, and also having very high “made in America” requirements... would be difficult for UK car manufacturers to benefit as is...
Although apparently UK accession to USMCA seems to be over before it got going, after Lobby certainly seemed to have been briefed on it embargoed to 10pm last night and put on front pages, US sources pointed out there was no accession provision, and now its all been denied 🤷🏾‍♂️

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Faisal Islam Profile picture
16 Sep
EUs trade surplus with UK first 7 months 2021, ie post Brexit trade deal, was €82.1bn, notably up from same months in 2020, €56.7bn

Driven by 17.1% or €16bn fall in UK exports to EU.
Trade into EU from every other major partner up.

EU exports to UK grew by 6.2%, or €9bn..
These are pretty stark figures from Eurostat, calculated on a slightly different basis to the UK ONS ones.

Obviously the pandemic period affects most of the 2020 figures and all of the 2021 figures, but that affected all nations.

Only UK exports are down, and significantly so.
different basis used by Eurostat vs ONS includes… not being seasonally adjusted, using International Merchandise Trade Statistics basis eg. shipping part eg engine or wing, internally to subsidiary…

But shd be able to compare UK trade in/out of EU with others on this basis
Read 7 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
14 Sep
NEW: Post Brexit import controls/ checks, especially on agrifood, some due to be brought in the coming weeks, mainly delayed until July 2022, the second such delay - ministerial statement by PAymaster General, blaming pandemic supply chain pressures... questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…
Though this was tweeted out by Cabinet Office in last hour too
Food Drink Federation unhappy with delay: “As recently as yesterday, officials assured us import checks would be implemented as planned.

“repeated failure to implement full UK border controls on EU imports since 1 Jan undermines trust and confidence - & helps UK’s competitors.”
Read 6 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
14 Sep
Jobs numbers out -
29.1 million employees on payroll - now back up to pre -Covid levels.
1 million plus vacancies - a record

Official quarterly unemployment rate down to 4.6%
Quite significant regional/ national differences within UK

Unemployment in London - 6%
South West - 3.3%
Back up at pre pandemic levels of payrolled employment, according to HMRC’s real time data.. was down a million, 10 months ago.
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
7 Sep
PM announces £12bn a year 1.25% levy on both employees AND employers National Insurance contributions and dividends to fund NHS post pandemic catch up and social care reforms...
Hypothecated levy, will be separated out on tax bills from 2023. Tax levied from April 2022
£12bn a year slots in just behind Budget 2021 C-tax hike as the biggest tax rising fiscal event since 1993... so thats the top 2 tax rising “budgets” in a generation in 6 months, first C tax than national insurance..
“I accept that this breaks manifesto commitments which is not something I do lightly.. but a global pandemic was in no ones manifesto”... PM tells Commons..
Read 7 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
20 Jul
“Get Covid & live longer” was quote in message obtained by my colleague @bbclaurak - difficult to know what that means but worth attempting to unpack. surely not an attempt at humour?

Suggesting connection between “getting COVID” and “living longer” is obviously innumerate… Image
Innumerate because:

Life expectancy is a mean, not a median - this makes a significant difference.

Life expectancy at 80 years old now, is 9 more years for a man, 10 for a woman...

More here from actual actuaries:

covid-arg.com/post/get-covid…
But actually the eyebrow raising thing here is suggesting some sort of causal relationship, even if Covid fatality average age was definitively below life expectancy... many other factors, for example, might have been certain age groups were almost totally shielded from infection
Read 6 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
19 Jul
Spent a couple of days in York speaking to businesses about Grand Reopening..

Overall sense are that things pretty tentative. HEre of course the lack of international tourists overwhelming factor.

At new hotel domestic tourists have fully booked up, but owner cant find staff...
Twenty per cent staff at his hotel group chain in Yorkshire are isolating, tho owner backs PM’s “if not now when” message...

Coffee shop owners working on basis much social distancing maintained voluntarily (York’s cafe spaces small), and domestic tourists spend less on coffee..
At “York Chocolate story” boss Juliana at pains to downplay rhetoric about Freedom Day “we dont like that phrase” will welcome more guests, but says her polling shows that people expect to be protected against virus, masks “strongly encouraged” for customers, compulsory for staff
Read 4 tweets

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