Thread by @JohnOBrennan2

A short comment on the speech by @DavidGHFrost in Lisbon. It is full of half truths, untruths and an extraordinary re-writing of recent history. It is almost like he is asking his audience to forget what happened in late 2019 and late 2020. 1/
politico.eu/article/david-…

Lord Frost suggests “there is no threat to the single market from what we are proposing”. In fact, what HMG is proposing to run a coach and four through the EU’s Single Market rules, implying a special status for the UK as a not quite third country. 2/

It was precisely because of the multiple threats to the Single Market that the EU insisted in 2016 on a specific sequencing of talks, with the withdrawal agreement to come before the TCA. The EU is stretching its threshold of SM tolerance to the limit with new NIP proposals. 3/

Lord Frost also suggests the Protocol was agreed “in a rush”. In fact it was anything thus with protracted talks about sequencing and modalities in 2016 and 2017. The two sides didn’t just pluck the WA out of the ether in the Wirral in Oct 2019. 4/
theguardian.com/politics/2019/…

To suggest the WA was somehow imposed on 🇬🇧 at the last minute is re-writing a history we are all too familiar with. HMG could have said “No” to the sequencing in 2017. It didn’t. It has to accept responsibility for what it signed up to at each stage of the negotiations. 5/

Lord Frost argues that “fixing” the Protocol is a prerequisite for fixing the broader EU-U.K. relationship. Does anybody seriously believe this anymore? Frost and Johnson are set on permanent war with the EU as an instrument to maintain mobilisation of their Brexit base. 6/

Nothing will appease the true believers because they have never been interested in pragmatic solutions to real world problems. Each time the EU has responded to complaints with (admittedly imperfect) solutions, the variegated Brexit mob have spat them back in the face of EU.7/

Appeasement May well be justified on the grounds of protecting a fragile peace in Northern Ireland. But it may be self-defeating if Brexiteers simply refuse to face the reality of what they signed up to and the consequences that flow from such commitments. 8/

One might think from the shape of Frost’s speech that the EU had not moved, or had barely moved on the Protocol and other issues. In fact it has offered much more ‘wiggle room’ on the Protocol to 🇬🇧 than might have been anticipated. 9/

The last part of the speech where Frost disingenuously claims that there is a widespread feeling in the UK that the EU “tried to use Northern Ireland” is a blatant inversion of the truth. All the EU has done throughout is protect one of its member states and a fragile peace. 10/

The Brexit true believers didn’t give a damn about Northern Ireland in 2016 and they still don’t. They use it as a proxy weapon in their never-ending obsession with Europe. The new EU proposals represent a substantive move by the EU to help businesss and communities in NI. 11/

Frost uses line used by @bernardjenkin on @BBCNewsnight last night: that the EU took advantage of the UK internal political fragility/weakness in 2019 to force through the Protocol. This is another vast distortion of the truth. But what does truth even mean for Brexiteers? 12/

Frost’s speech effectively signals the death blows to the Protocol. Further, If one partner is unwilling to live by the solemn legal commitments it has entered into then we are dealing with a rogue state rather than a partner. The EU will give short shrift to this. 13/

To suggest, as Frost does, that it will be absolutely necessary for 🇬🇧 to trigger Article 16 but would be bad for Northern Ireland if the EU responds exemplifies the ways Brexiteers have weaponised Northern Ireland as a tactical proxy in their wider war on Europe. 14/

When Frost suggests that Northern Ireland is not EU territory and is the UK’s responsibility, he is deliberately ignoring the role of Ireland as a guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement 15/

If Frost’s speech constitutes an escalation of hostilities with the EU, he must know this is a war UK cannot possibly win. The asymmetry in power between the EU and UK means that if Article 16 becomes the new field of battle, the EU holds many more levers available to it. 16/

There is only so much of this dismal performative pantomine routine that the EU will put up with, even if it is mostly intended for a domestic 🇬🇧 audience. . We are now much closer to the point where this turns very nasty. 17/ ENDS.