Thread by @JohnOBrennan2

So, how does @BorisJohnson satisfy the Brexit ultras in the Tory party who choose him as leader and simultaneously get the Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament? Is there a pathway to get out of the EU by 31 October and stay in power?
Yes, I think. A short thread on such. 1/

If Johnson becomes PM over the coming days (still some doubt), he knows he cannot get existing Brexit deal through the Commons. So what to do? He could (relatively quickly) go to Brussels, and ask for the Northern Ireland specific backstop to replace the current UK-wide one.2/

By accepting a NI-only backstop he could conceivably get the deal through the Commons. The price to be paid for such bold action would be to lose the support of the DUP, upon whose support the current government depends. 3/

For Northern Ireland this offers the optimum solution to the impasse, “the best of both worlds”, of having a foot in both unions. For the DUP, however, this would be completely incompatible with the “heart over head” approach they have adopted throughout the Brexit negs 4/

So while Johnson could conceivably get the NI specific backstop over the line at Westminster, the price to be paid would be losing DUP, which means he cannot command a Commons majority any longer. That means a general election. 5/

Boris Johnson, I think, will have few fears about facing Jeremy Corbyn in a general election campaign. He would go into such a campaign having neutralized the Brexit party and Nigel Farage as an electoral force. Why? Because he would have honoured his pledge to deliver Brexit. 6/

Facing Corbyn with Brexit delivered means a 360 degree re-framing of UK politics, back to ideology and Right-Left divide. Johnson would surely feel he has all the tools to unite his party + elevate the ‘Commie Corbyn’ rhetoric to a level where it decisively frames the campaign.6/

Needless to say it isn’t a given that the Labour Party would support a NI-specific Brexit backstop . But getting Brexit out of the way would clear the ground for a decisive Left-Right electoral battle, which many folks around Corbyn have been itching for. 7/

I’m somewhat discounting the Lib Dems and other Remain entities. If, however, Brexit is neutralized within the Tory party, it becomes harder to fight a Remain-focused election campaign. Especially if these parties fail to agree on and produce a tactical voting plan. 8/

With the Brexit party sidelined and an election revolving around the Tory-Labour battle, it becomes possible to run a presidential style election campaign: ‘Back Boris’ becomes the mantra for a highly individualistic campaign. And it might very well work. 9/

Johnson could then end up with a clear majority in the Commons (20 seats or more) and begin negotiations on the future trading relationship with the EU (Article 215 TFEU). This assumes A 50 process has concluded satisfactorily (not just the backstop but money/citizens rights) 10/

I realise there are further complications for Johnson: his akratic tendencies (cf @fotoole last week), whether he manages to retain his Commons seat, his capacity to commit gaffes, unwelcome interventions by Trump, how Iran crisis plays out etc. 11/

But bottom line is that a return to the Ni-specific backstop is the only change to A 50 Agreement the EU (+Ireland) will countenance + which could also conceivably get through the Commons. That would collapse Johnson’s govt but simultaneously offer route to electoral success. 12/

Finally then, the only route through the Brexit morass for @BorisJohnson is through Northern Ireland and ditching the DUP.
ENDS. 13/