Thread by @JohnOBrennan2

I’ve spent most of today reading, re-reading and thinking about THAT Economist interview with President Macron. Some observations. 1/

Macron uses phrases over and over again which suggest he is a familiar combination of Metternichian Realist and traditional French imperialist. Anybody who still thinks of him as the embodiment of EU federalism, I’m sorry.
You’ve been horribly missold. 2/

Macron is indistinguishable from every other leader of the Fifth Republic. Sustaining and advancing (and of course over-estimating) French power and global reach is never far from the rhetorical surface.

The obsession with sovereignty emerges as the key theme. Whether digital or physical security, his views seem scarcely divisible from those of the average Brexiteer. First, physical security, then community seems the overriding impulse. 4/

At times he seems like that bright academic boy who has read a lot of theory but insists he is a man of the world. His sense of Tragedy is threaded through his notion of power and informs his view of international politics. Like a young man who has just read Mearsheimer. 5/

Macron’s inclusive notion of Europe seems to embrace Russia (and Orban) but exclude the Western Balkans. Putting aside the bizarre comments on Bosnian salafism, his EU does not include south Eastern Europe. 6/

Macron’s IR realism is perhaps most visible in his attitude to W Balkans. He says EU Enlargement policy needs urgent reform. But he doesn’t make a single suggestion to make this happen. 7/

When Macron says the ‘EU needs to reform’ before accepting new members, he reveals gross hypocrisy. At the same time as he condemns W. Balkans for corruption, he Cosies up to Orban (needs him to deal with Putin).
Kissinger finally has a European number to call. 8/

When Macron says nothing is getting done in the EU, that is manifestly untrue. Eastern Enlargement did not materially damage EU capacity to agree legislation or take decisions. 9/

What Macron really dislikes about a prospective Western Balkans enlargement is 6 more small states joining the European Council, states that would be peer countries rather than small fry supplicants to be used on the great power chessboard, as French interests demand. 10/

France behaved disgracefully (as did the UK) during the Bosnian war between 1992 and 1995, so why are we so surprised now that Paris is the main block on unifying South-East Europe with the EU? 11/

At the same time as France was actively blocking a solution to the Bosnian quagmire, it was providing vital aid to the Hutu extremists that were actively planning genocide of the Tutsi in Rwanda. Any wonder Macron is one of the main opponents of ending arms sales by EU MS? 12/

So Macron presents a very familiar kind of European leader. He is praised for his “strategic awareness and foresight” but that awareness draws upon exactly the same kind of realist chessboard nonsense that has brought calamity to Europe so many times in history. 13/

Macron is at least admirably clear in his objectives. He wants the EU to junk sanctions against Russia because we need to better understand Putin and adopt Russia as a strategic partner. 14/

-To hell with Crimea.
-To hell with Donbas.
-To hell with LGBT rights in Russia.
Strategic intelligence is key.
Behold our great liberal European savant, seeing what the rest of us cannot see in Vladimir Vladimirovich! 15/

Macron’s obsession with The End of History is apparent. He seems to view the post-Maastricht EU as the very manifestation of Fukuyama’s horizontal flattening. Lacking a solid defense capacity the EU needs to be dragged ‘back to the future’ to engage the Strongmen of our time. 16/

In short, Macron is far from being a liberal, much les an EU federalist. He is rather a familiar kind of power obsessed Realist (see what he says about ‘balancing’) and his ‘worldview’ should be politely ignored. ENDS. 17/