Here are data for Rx opioid dispensing and drug overdose deaths in #America. The notable feature is the 📉 of Rx opioid disp rate having no impact in reducing overdose deaths, then the rise of illicit fentanyl contributing to a sharp 📈 in the mid-2010s.

*thread* 🧵
The U.S. drug overdose/poisoning death rate has increased almost every year since 1999 (2018 had a 📈), but in the mid-2010s, there was a larger than normal increase in that rate. The rise of illicit fentanyl in the black market has been a big contributor to this mid-2010s spike.
The health danger with illicit drug supplies is that the user has no clue exactly what is in the drug. Poor quality control by clandestine lab chemists in manufacturing these illicit drugs is nowhere near the level of QC performed by a legitimate pharmaceutical manufacturer.
When illicit suppliers/dealers are adulterating/cutting their heroin, cocaine, etc. supplies with fentanyl, they are not adding a precise dosage in each batch of the drug. One sample of heroin could have 1 milligram of fentanyl and another one could have 20 milligram of fentanyl.
From a synthesis standpoint, clandestine labs don't usually have the necessary experts or infrastructure for manufacturing and performing QC on their drug supplies. Chemical synthesis is a lot like baking - deviations from recipes will lead to poor products.
Lab synthesis of most drugs require multiple important QC steps in the process. Like baking, chemical synthesis requires the correct amount of ingredients, temperature, time at temperature, mixing, etc. Not following directions can lead to dangerous chemicals in the final product
Certain QC steps are meant to remove those dangerous chemicals that may be in the final product. A legitimate pharmaceutical manufacturer follows QC standards to remove them and that's why your pharm Rx pills can be trusted over the drugs bought from the neighborhood drug dealer.
This is what makes illicit fentanyl so dangerous. Many people are not educated about WHY it is so dangerous and that is a huge problem. When fentanyl hit the black markets in the 2010's, users that were used to the heroin of the 90s/2000s were now getting a more potent/toxic drug
Now think of the vulnerable populations that are potential illicit drug users: ppl with substance addiction, ppl buying counterfeit pain pills or benzos for recreation, and chronic pain patients whose med doctors are federal-restricted from prescribing Rx opioids.
I may be missing some vulnerable populations, but just these 3 provide a LARGE pool of our US population that may potentially purchase illicit drugs and unknowingly consume a poorly-QC'd batch of illicit drugs. Rx opioids are not the biggest cause of overdoses in the 2020s.
A record 93,000+ ppl in the US died of a drug overdose in 2020. Data in recent years indicate there are much bigger problems than Rx opioids such as meth, coke, illicit fentanyl. And a large amount of Rx opioid-involved overdose deaths involved alcohol and/or other drugs.
It's very important to educate our public officials because I've seen firsthand that many of them don't know sh*t about this. Many of them are still speaking the 2000s narrative about "Rx opioids causing addiction", not realizing that illicit fentanyl is the 2010-2020s problem.
We need new/innovative govt policies that will shift our focus to mitigating the risks of ALL illicit drugs and additionally eliminate the stigma against addiction and against the pain patients that (responsibly) take Rx opioid to treat their every day pain to live a normal life.
Call/email/talk to your local state representatives and senators, local US congresspeople and senators, and state governors. Those are the people with the influence and power to shift policies that affect these issues. If you need data to show them, I can provide some assistance.

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More from @DrDavid_IDEM

1 Sep
I’ll cap #OverdoseAwarenessDay with this. Data show there was no correlation between Rx opioid dispensing and the drug overdose death rate in 38 states & D.C (represented by the dots) in 2018. The closer R-squared (R^2) is to 1, the stronger the correlation. Here R^2 is 0.00002.
0.00002 is VERY VERY far from 1, indicating that the Rx opioid dispensing rate from state to state had no effect on drug overdose numbers.
Explanation of the data: In simple linear regression, R-squared is known as the correlation coefficient, on a scale of 0-1, 1 being a perfect linear correlation and 0 being no correlation.
Read 6 tweets
31 Aug
To compare the 3 south Florida counties’ drug #overdose data, each of them had an 83%+ increase of OD deaths from 2015 to 2016 📈. Then in 2018, all 3 saw a drop in their drug OD death count 📉.

#InternationalOverdoseAwarenessDay
My educated guess: the positive overdose death spikes in 2015 may be attributed to the rise of illicit fentanyl in the US. I’m not too sure about the negative spike in 2018. Keep in mind that 2018 was the ONLY year of nationwide #overdose death decline since 1999.
Maybe the decrease was due to programs such as @HealthyFla HEROS that distributed free naloxone/Narcan to #FirstResponders. But of course, the overdose death count jumped back up in 2019.
Read 4 tweets
31 Aug
Effective early drug education is necessary to curb drug #overdose deaths. And no, I don’t mean DARE. I taught a univ. freshman seminar class and they go through a lesson on “substance abuse” and those 18 yr olds didn’t know sh*t about drugs. #InternationalOverdoseAwarenessDay
If that’s the representation of our teenage and young adults in the US, then we need to do more in middle school & high school to educate them about drugs, responsible medical use, and the risks of irresponsible or recreational drug use. Educate them rather than scare them str8.
We can’t look at the drug epidemic as a problem that will be solved overnight, or next year, or even in 5 years. We must invest more in educating the younger generations with basic information about drugs.
Read 6 tweets
31 Aug
My next few posts will be about South #Florida, the most populated region in my state. Miami-Dade Co. also had a large surge in drug #overdose deaths in 2016 and has remained above 200 per year ever since.

#InternationalOverdoseAwarenessDay
This 135 drug #overdose death surge is within the same timing as the 248 death surge in the Jacksonville Florida area (shown in my last tweet) from 2015 to 2016. This surge also correlates to the rise of illicit fentanyl overdose spikes in the US.
The data from Miami-Dade is actually mind boggling. This county is the most populated in #Florida but has managed to maintain one of the lowest overdose deaths per 100k ppl in the state over the years.
Read 5 tweets
31 Aug
It’s #InternationalOverdoseAwarenessDay. In America, the drug epidemic does not get enough attention from the media and our many public officials. Many ppl aren’t even aware of the fact that ~100k ppl died last year due to drug overdoses.
Even before #COVID19 came along and numbed us from every day death tolls, 200 ppl were dying each day from drug use in the US. Now that number is 250 ppl dying per day from drug overdoses. The first step to a solution is to recognize that there is a problem.
Today in honor of #OverdoseAwarenessDay , I’ll be posting a bunch of information about drug overdoses. Since I am from Florida, a lot of my data will be from Florida, but the sentiment of this huge problem applies to almost every large metro area in the US.
Read 5 tweets
30 Aug
The US drug overdose death count in 1999 was 16,849. This number has increased almost every year since then (2018 was the only decline) and is estimated to exceed 93,000 overdose deaths in 2020.

#OverdoseAwarenessWeek
Here’s a @CDCgov source showing drug overdose deaths from 1999-2017.
This other data set from the @CDCgov shows the contributors. Since the mid-2010’s, a large % of drug overdose deaths was caused by fentanyl. Meth, cocaine, Rx opioids & benzos have contributed too.

👉🏾Exclusively limiting Rx opioid distribution has failed to solve the epidemic.
Read 9 tweets

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