Tomorrow #Ottawa City Council will be voting on a motion to support phasing out gas in #Ontario by 2030. This motion was unanimously passed by the EPWWM (Enviro) committee earlier this month. Here is our updated message to all city councillors based on the recent IESO report 1/7
Parents support a gas phase out. The IESO report actually supports a 2030 gas-phase out when you look at all the numbers. Let us explain (and if you agree, tag your city councillor) @JimWatsonOttawa @oncleanair 2/7
1. ISEO is forecasting a shortfall of carbon-free supply in 2030 of 3/10th of 1% (0.5 TWh shortfall out of total 151.66 TWh demand). They are implicitly saying we can achieve a 99.7% phase out by 2030 (pretty darn close..) 3/7
2. A 99.7% phase-out by 2030 would not lead to blackouts since ~ 20% of existing gas capacity will still be under contract to IESO. IF there is a shortfall of carbon-free supply in 2030, IESO can dispatch the gas generation available through emerg back-up to prevent blackouts 4/7
3. The IESO report does not factor in the carbon tax savings from phasing out gas. Assuming a carbon tax of $170/tonne and that all gas generation is subject to the carbon tax, the savings will be ~ $2 BILLION in 2030 alone. 5/7
4. At $170/tonne, a carbon tax will raise the price of gas generation by 6.6 cents per kWh. If fuel cost is 3 cents/kWh (ave cost today), total variable cost of gas-fired electricity=9.6 cents/kWh in 2030. 6/7
This would make gas-fired more expensive than the cost of energy efficiency measures and the total cost of new solar and onshore wind. Our kids in clean air and a livable planet. We need to be pushing the provincial government to phase out gas 7/7…

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