I’m a big poker fan, so it was very cool to talk about the game (plus also some 2024 election forecasting) with the #2 finisher in the Limit Hold ‘Em $10k tournament at the WSOP
Also had a great time driving around the desert with @tophtucker.

Had a mindblowing conversation with him where he pointed out what a fluke it is that the earth experiences total eclipses. Perfect combo of relative size/distance of moon/sun. Made me think there must be a God.
Can’t wait to get home. Apparently my son has started writing Series A checks.

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More from @TheStalwart

8 Oct
MISS: Just 194K jobs created in the month.

However, the unemployment rate fall to 4.8%

Ongoing story of seemingly slow job creation and tightening labor markets at the same time.

Not a huge market impact at all from the data. Just seems consistent with how the market has been seeing things lately.
Basically no change to the long end of the curve
Read 5 tweets
6 Oct
Janet Yellen said this yesterday and now @RussoEcon is also making this point, but tbh I don't get it.

How does the Fed accepting its client, the Treasury, to deposit a coin in its account constitute a loss of its independence nationalreview.com/2021/10/the-th…
@RussoEcon Fed independence has typically meant that the FOMC can set rate policy to fight inflation, and choose if it wants to lean against expansionary fiscal policies.

Whether that independence is good or bad, in what sense does accepting a deposit of the coin compromise that?
@RussoEcon A more recent meaning of Fed independence is that it can move very fast on its own (as we saw last March) even as fiscal authorities dither.

That's kind of a different thing. But again, even there, how does the coin compromise that ability?
Read 4 tweets
5 Oct

New post up on the Odd Lots blog, based on our conversation with @rohangrey on how the platinum coin option arguably fits in very nicely with the laws intent.

@rohangrey Basically, if you understand that the law was created in order to create more revenue opportunities for the Mint, so it could remit more profits for the Treasury, so that the Treasury would have less need for borrowing, then this debt ceiling law is exactly how it was intended.
Read 5 tweets
4 Oct

On the new Odd Lots, @tracyalloway and I speak with @rohangrey, who wrote the definitive legal case for for the legality of the trillion dollar coin.

Astonishingly compelling. Send this to anyone who still isn't coinpilled. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@tracyalloway @rohangrey You can read Rohan's full paper here. rohangrey.net/files/coinage.…
And of course, the episode is free on all the apps, including

Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/thi…

Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5iVgfv…

Read 4 tweets
30 Sep
I've been coinpilled since at least 2013.

But after speaking with Rohan I went from thinking "This is kind of a fluke legal technicality" to thinking "This is unambiguously sound, legal, not even a close call, and not even a significant stretching of the law's intent"
I previously thought that the law accidentally worded in such a way as to allow a law on collectibles to enable a trillion dollar coin.

But I no longer think that's the case. It's wording is intentional, and designed to increase potential mint seignorage revenue.
Of course, the designers of the law didn't contemplate it being used as a break-the-glass solution to the debt ceiling.

But the flexibility it affords the Treasury secretary (on coin denomination) is clearly no accident of wording.
Read 5 tweets
22 Sep
I don't even know what people really mean by "Lehman Moment" anymore, but IMO, the greatest sources of market panic/pure fear come when it appears that the mechanics of the government/politics are incapable of doing bailouts/stimulus. (EG the TARP vote.
I don't think China will ever have this exact problem. They may have painful losses, and other calamities. But due to the nature of their system, there probably won't be a period where people wonder if Beijing is capable of bailing out the financial system.
Same with Europe. There were moments in 2011-2013, when it seemed genuinely possible that the nature of the euro area/ECB structure was not mechanically up to the task of stopping an uncontrolled financial panic.
Read 6 tweets

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