Some thoughts on the current #COVID situation in #Scotland - thanks to @HMcArdleHT @TigressEllie for the prompt.
I think the last couple of months - and especially the last week or so - teach us a lot about the virus spread in highly vaccinated populations.
The size of the outbreak in school-age children is staggering. Compare the peaks this September with the first and the second wave in the graph below:
Vaccines are clearly working - the death rate, particularly in 60+ age classes, is much smaller relative to what we did see in the pre-vaccination time.
But vaccination in younger age groups was late and seems to slow down - reaching a plateau at 70-80% - way too low to make an impact!
The virus seems to be bouncing back as the cases actually go up in some age classes (particularly older). - see the first graph zoomed:
Also seen using the 7-days ratio between cases (a rough estimate of the reproductive number). The value below 1 means the case numbers are declining, and the value above 1 means the case numbers are accelerating.
All of these graphs and more at:…

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More from @aklecz

12 Oct

The results of the UK parliamentary inquiry into the March 2020 response to the pandemic are out this morning. It will take a while to read, analyse, and properly respond to it, but I want to make one quick point.
2/ Although there were clearly mistakes made in early 2020 and I did not at the time agree with what Her Majesty Government was doing, I can give them the benefit of doubt for this part of the pandemic.
3/ It was clearly making decisions in face of extreme uncertainty, whereby not only the model outputs were fuzzy, but the parameters or even critical assumptions were not clear.
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