Thread by @YNot_1989

Thread: I've been trying to wargame out a more widespread insurrection in the US, because I'm getting properly sick of people trivializing a Civil War. (1/16)

https://twitter.com/IwriteOK/status/1448110717861826564

Firstly, both of these maps only tell a very small part of the story of what a widespread insurrection would look like. This map is the most accurate breakdown of the political state of the country I can find: (2/16) carto.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappvie…

Yes, there are large swaths of empty land in the US, but Republicans and Democrats by in large live on top of one another. That means a hypothetical Red Hat Rebellion would involve a lot of violence around major population centers. (3/16)

The opening days of such a war would see major cities at risk of being cut off from the rest of the country. Millions of people would try to flee to greener pastures, clogging up airports and roads. The Mexican and Canadian borders would drown in a sea of DPs. (4/16)

Then things would get really bad. Sectarian conflicts disrupt supply chains better than anything. Roads become impassable, maritime trade has to negotiate various blockades and scared dock workers. Soon the peacetime economy grinds to a halt. (5/16)

In our post-industrial, highly interdependent economy, all of that translates to food and fuel insecurity. The first translates to famine. Those who can't eat, but can move try to flee which leads to even more refugees pouring into any countries that will take them. (6/16)

The second translates to power plants shutting down, trucks and trains can't travel beyond a few fuel secure routs, private transportation stops entirely as fuel rationing is put in place. Come winter people freeze in their homes, burning trash to just keep warm. (7/16)

Winter sees millions of civilians die and both sides ration resources for the struggle to take back essential economic centers for the war effort. The West Coast and the Northeastern Corridor are secured first. The Central Valley's orchards are cut down for soy and wheat. (8/16)

Foreign trade does little to help. The Blue States blockade keeps the Red States rich with grains and beef, but they can't get it anywhere for market. This leads to a collapse of the global meat industry, as the US exports more animal feed corn than any one else. (9/16)

The American Famine goes global. Other top producers of cereals primarily produce for domestic consumption and can't afford to export. The Union eventually recaptures the major oil refineries of the Gulf Coast, but it leads to the return of a dependence on Mid-East Oil. (10/16)

Since 2014, American refineries have retooled to handle "light-sweet" crude oil produced through fracking. And fracking operations are largely in areas of contestation or control by the Red States. The only major exception is the Middle East. (11/16)

By the end of year 2 the Blue States will have secured a fraction of their fuel production, manufacturing would be largely relocated to energy secure regions like Nevada and Southern California, and the famine should be nearing its end, but hunger would persist. (12/16)

I should stress that this is only true of the West Coast and Northeastern Corridor. Chicago, Milwaukee, and Detroit could be resupplied via the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway, but fighting in the Midwest would leave the region constantly food and power insecure. (13/16)

The Midwest would empty out rather than face another polar vortex without heating. Many would fleet to Canada in the summer, more than likely surpassing the entire population of Ontario and stretching Canada's resources thin and leading to unrest spreading north. (14/16)

The war would last years, cost millions of lives, collapse the global economy, and lead to other conflicts around the world. And that's before you remember how a lot of at risk communities would be surrounded by a bunch of neo-fascist monsters for years without support. (15/16)

Such a conflict may be inevitable. When there's a violent attempt to overturn the results of an election and the leaders of the attack face no reprisals, they will only get more radical.

Don't act like such a war would be over by Christmas. (16/16)

In case its not abundantly clear, this mean right wing operated slave labor and death camps for people of color, queerfolk, transfolk, and non-Christians.