Skipping over the problematic historiography, I think Friedman is making a mistake a lot of people are making right now: he's assuming the collapse/crisis is immanent.

I think we have another 5 years and we're barely at the beginning of how bad things can get. (1/) Simply put, most of us alive today were born in the Long Peace, and Americans in particular have a bad habit of failing to appreciate just how bad things can get. We are at most in the middle of a new Sectional Crisis. (2/)

1: Some industry buddies and I have been taking another crack at the Drake equation based on recent discoveries in astronomy and came away with an eerie conclusion:

There was less than a 50% chance for Earth to have developed an industrial civilization at this point (1) #space

https://twitter.com/Iron_Spike/status/1584962126262652933

2: For the unfamiliar, here's Carl Sagan running the Drake Equation in 1977.

Pitch: Bobby has been living in New York working on his standup routine and writing for SNL. He's coming home because he's got a Netflix special coming out. The series is very much an indictment of small town America, and Texas in particular.

https://twitter.com/YNot_1989/status/1620503701361401856

Peggy is still a realtor, now the primary breadwinner, and full blown Q anon.

Hank lost his pension after Buck got busted by the IRS. He's working at the Megalomart again.

Bobby doesn't really talk to his mom that much anymore, but weirdly he and Hank are on good terms.

#WhatIf Gregory Watson pushed to pass the Congressional Apportionment Amendment instead of the Congressional Compensation Amendment? (1) #alternatehistory en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressi… In May of 1992, after a decade of spite-fueled lobbying, the final state to ratify the Congressional Apportionment Amendment... and all hell breaks loose.

Like in OTL, many Congressmen are livid that a new amendment has been imposed upon them, and try to block certification. (2)

The National Ignition Facility uses Inertial Confinement to achieve nuclear fusion. What that means is that you shoot a 192 laser beams (2.1 megajoules combined) at a thimble full of Hydrogen-3 (Tritium) and Hydrogen-2 (Deuterium.) (1) ...In a fraction of a second these gasses become almost 100x denser than lead which initiates fusion, essentially creating an artificial star.

This test, lasted 3.14 femto-seconds. Or 3.14 quadrillionths of a second. In that time it produced 2.5 megajoules of energy. (2)

Since Artemis I has splashed down, I figured I'd give a no BS assessment from am aerospace industry insider (me) on what comes next for Cislunar exploration.

Either late this year or early next year, Astrobotic will attempt a landing on the moon under a NASA contract... (1) A second landing was planned to deliver NASA's VIPER rover to the Lunar South Pole in November next year, but that mission required the XL-1 lander built by Masten, who went bankrupt this year. Even if Masten's assets are acquired, a completed XL-1 is unlikely in 2023. (2)

In honor of #IndigenousPeoplesDay: #WhatIf Columbus never returned alive from the New World? #alternatehistory

POD: 13 February 1493 the Niña and Pinta are smashed upon the rocks of the Azores by the roughest storm of their journey back to Europe... (1) Like in OTL, the 39 survivors of the Columbus voyage at the colony of La Navidad eventually begin fighting amongst themselves and destroyed their own settlement. 28 survivors remained and became quasi-prisoners of the Cacique of Marién. (2)

Simple enough, the Poles get the drop on the Germans and smash the Wehrmacht in a humiliating defeat before fighting a long, bloody war with the Soviets.

With Germany seemingly declawed, the western Allies throw more money and guns at Poland to turn back the Soviets. (1/8)

https://twitter.com/DavidAstinWalsh/status/1570070487908159488

In truth, the defeat in Poland does not seriously hamper Germany's ability to make war on other powers, but it severely harmed the perception of Hitler and the Nazi party. With fears of losing power, Goering uses Operation Valkyrie to stage a military coup. (2/8)

Ok, you asked for it: Book 2 will focus on the lead up to the Saratoga Campaign. There will be four main POV arcs... (1/17)

https://twitter.com/BaenBooks/status/1569837327656144896

One will follow the Continental Army from the end of a more successful New York-New Jersey Campaign in the Spring of 1777, in which cover and concealment and ambush tactics are used to heavily deplete the British in the middle colonies. (2/17)

I could not begin to come up with a comprehensive list of all the things I hope we get to see in whatever sequel(s) to "The Crossing" @thewriterike and @BaenBooks are cooking up... but without major spoilers: 1: [BLANK] meeting a 4 year old Sally Hemmings at Monticello and realizing that Thomas Jefferson is kindof a creep.

2: Lafayette getting a crash course in the history of France from 1789 to 1815.

3: A young Oliver Evans learning about locomotives.

This is the most important thing driving Ukraine's recent action around Kherson, and hardly anyone's talking about it: The Autumn Rasputitsa is upon us. (1/9)

https://twitter.com/YNot_1989/status/1495465638839554049

The Rasputitsa refers to the spring thaw and fall floods that turn Ukraine and Russia into fields of impassible muck.

That 20 mile convoy to Kyiv that was stopped cold by a handful of shoulder fired rockets? The Rasputitsa made that possible. (2/9) theguardian.com/news/2022/apr/…

Here's a random timeline: #WhatIf Reimar Horten was able to follow through with his plan to create Radar Absorbent Material during WWII for the Ho 229? #aviation #alternatehistory (1) At the end of the war, a nearly complete Ho 229 is found and captured by the Americans and transported to the US during Operation Seahorse, along with samples of Horton's RAM. (2)

#WhatIf the "Business Plot" succeeded in overthrowing FDR in 1933? There probably would have been an anti-capitalist Revolution in the US a few years later, and ironically Smedley Butler probably would have been one of its leaders. #alternatehistory (1) Blah blah, second American civil war 1933-1938, the United Socialist States of America is established, its a dictatorship, because that's what communism always slides into, heard it all before. (2)

Challenge accepted:

1: During the 9th Crusade, Robert de Brus, 6th Lord of Annandale recovers a book by the Syrian scholar Hasan al-Rammah, which included instructions for the purification of saltpeter, and descriptions of gunpowder incendiaries

https://twitter.com/alt_historian/status/1557917193538609152

2: During his youth, Robert the Bruce was fascinated with tales of the Holy Land from his father, and the Lord of Annandale had translations made of his books made and Robert and his brothers poured over them during their education.

2022 is getting weird. (1/n) deviantart.com/ynot1989/journ… Typically, a recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of decline in GDP. Q1 saw a decrease of 1.6% and Q2 a 0.9% decrease in real GDP. (Real GDP is nominal GDP adjusted for inflation.) (2/n)

I loved Season 1 and 2 of For All Mankind. It ticked damn near every box for plausible #alternatehistory and aerospace engineering.

But Season 3 has been hot garbage. (1)

https://twitter.com/YNot_1989/status/1555572833400414209

First, the good:

The domestic politics of the show has been more or less on point at every turn. Ellen's entire arc this season has been more or less believable... (2)

If the results in Kansas translated nationally, Democrats would gain 28 additional seats in the House based on current PVI data. That's a 248 seat majority, which would be the biggest Dem majority since 2008. #Midterms2022 (1)

https://twitter.com/YNot_1989/status/1554857714785722369

The most underreported contributing factor to the results in Kansas are that shortly after the SCOTUS overturned Roe, voter registration in Kansas spiked by 1000%. Overwhelmingly in favor of Independents and Democrats. (2) fox4kc.com/politics/your-…

Ugh... takes like these from otherwise smart people are nothing new, but they're obviously gonna become a lot more convincing for the next decade.

Short version: The American Empire is not only not in decline, its no where near its peak. (1/11)

https://twitter.com/BreeNewsome/status/1544161148190212098

The fundamentals: The contiguous territory of the United States is so absurdly advantageous its basically impossible for it to not be the wealthiest and most powerful nation on the planet. RIP @brain4breakfast (2/11)

Here's one for ya: #WhatIf the Soviets landed on Mars, but basically nothing else changed? (1/10)

https://twitter.com/alt_historian/status/1543001926555635712

POD: Same as all of them - Sergei Korolev lives long enough to work out the bugs on the N-1. (2/10)

Thread: In light of the SCOTUS ruling to overturn Roe, Gerrymandering seeming to hand the election to the Republicans, and the Dem leadership's high-road defeatism. If you're a progressive, and think there's no point in voting, believe it or not, there is hope. (1/13) The Basics: America has a two party system, but those parties are made up of 6 major ideological factions. Since the early 90s, the Dems have been controlled by the "New Democrats" or "Clinton Democrats," but that is likely to change after 2022. (2/13) deviantart.com/ynot1989/art/2…

The extension of the Apollo program and death of the Shuttle program compels NASA to make persistent upgrades of the Apollo hardware. The CM is made fully reusable by the late 1970s, the LM evolves into an orbital module similar to that of Soyuz. (18) (19) The continued operation and upgrades of the Saturn family of rockets make it an ideal platform for launching the KH-11 and Hubble. Using the Saturn 1B the Air Force develops its own corps of astronauts to service military satellites, launching out of Vandenberg. (19)