1/ I couldn't find a link to the study in this BBC News report, but the report rehashes what we've known for a long time.

bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…

We know:
2/ PCR tests on throat swabs, done with good technique at the right time are only about 70% sensitive: 3/10 positive cases are missed.

PCR tests done late (eg a day or 2 after a positive lateral flow test) is even less sensitive.

Lateral flow tests are even less sensitive.
3/ Both types of test are extremely specific: fewer than 1% of people who do not have Covid-19 will get a false positive result.
4/ (Especially if you discount late positive results - RNA from non-viable, "dead" viruses can persist for weeks, but infectiousness is 7-10 days, max.)

The probability you're genuinely infected is >99% after either type of test, if positive.
5/ A late PCR test might reduce this slightly, but the probability will only come down a fraction, likely still ~99%.

So, while "confirmatory testing" may help eg by identifying the genomics of the virus, it should NEVER be used to say the initial test result was incorrect.
6/ So it should never change decisions to self isolate or take other precautions.

We knew this 18 months ago, and any advice that quarantine in somebody who had tested positive could be curtailed could be was never driven by public health advice or science.

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More from @petermbenglish

16 Oct
1/ It's hard to know the real reason for the decision to give 12-15-year-olds only a single dose of because the details of the discussion are not available. Hence the campaign for greater JCVI transparency.

@DrRCoull @cv_cev twitter.com/DrRCoull/statu…
2/ The purported reason for the decision, IIRC, is a concern about adverse reactions to the vaccine.

Myocarditis, in particular, seems to occur in an extremely small proportion of vaccine recipients.
3/ Post-vaccination cases seem to have a minor illness and make a full recovery, although some people are concerned there could be long term consequences.

Myocarditis is far more common after Covid-19 disease than after vaccination.
Read 9 tweets
14 Oct
What an appalling interview from Sajid Javid starting a few minutes ago on @BBCr4today.

He is clearly incompetent, way out of his depth. I've seldom heard a minister say so many stupid things in a single interview.
@BBCr4today health inequalities are NOT caused by an unequal distribution of GPs.
@BBCr4today How, exactly, are you fighting the virus? Why are mask mandates not in place and rigorously enforced on public transport, in shops and other places, and in schools? Why is health and safety in schools and workplaces not ensuring good ventilation / air filtration?
Read 6 tweets
12 Oct
1/ . @jimalkhalili's Life Scientific on @BBCRadio4 this morning had a scientist (? @SirPaulNurse of @TheCrick ) saying:

"When [SARS-CoV-2 and the Covid-19 pandemic] arrived, we knew nothing about it."

Nonsense!

We knew a lot about Coronaviruses.
2/ We knew a lot about the immune system, how it interacts with pathogens, and how it can overreact to cause an acute (short term) overreaction (cytokine storms…); and about long-term autoimmune disease.

We knew a lot about treatments for autoimmune diseases.
3/ We knew a lot about vaccines and how they work. (Objections to sensible decisions - like extending the prime-boost interval - were based on the fallacy that "we know nothing…", and ignored decades of work on vaccination.)
Read 10 tweets
3 Oct
The tories claim to be the economically competent.

So why do they give visas to very high earners while deporting/preventing entry of people prepared to work for low wages?
1/
I don't know what happened to tweet 2 which I sent just after tweet 1… Will try again. It will be tweet 3, now.
2 /
That said, it pains me to agree with Johnson, but we have exploited low-paid workers for far too long.

Care and health care workers, pluckers and pickers, cleaners… particularly jobs typically done by women…
3/
Read 11 tweets
22 Sep
1/ Regarding infections in schools, a colleague has pointed out that it is Department for Education directives that require schools to stay open, not PHE advice.

I am aware of this.
2/ Before I retired in January a complaint was made against me by the education sector for refusing to change my advice that a school or section of a school should close because of an outbreak of Covid-19 that was putting staff, other students, and their families at risk.
3/ The complaint went nowhere - I was giving the right public health advice, no matter how awkward it was.
Read 7 tweets
21 Sep
Gross incompetence on behalf of BBC?

Bad legal advice?

Surely it wasn't impossible to make full vaccination a condition of employment eg on H&S grounds?

"Strictly chaos as 'third professional dancer refuses vaccine'" metro.co.uk/2021/09/21/str… via @MetroUK
@MetroUK who are the three vaccine refuseniks?

If the BBC won't replace them now, the public should know, so we can vote them off ASAP.
@MetroUK is there anything that would prevent it being a condition of employment that Strictly Come Dancing #SCD competitors are fully vaccinated?
@AdamWagner1 @BarristerSecret @davidallengreen
Read 4 tweets

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