SHORT THREAD. This is a great thread from @C_M_Dougherty about what a Taiwan Strait conflict might look like and the Army's role therein. But I have a quibble.
Ok, more than a quibble.
Ok, more than a quibble.
https://twitter.com/C_M_Dougherty/status/1448705931068518404
My quibble is with this tweet in particular. IMO, whether a war is short, sharp, and relatively limited or China goes big and hard and broad, this will be a war to define the future of Asia.
https://twitter.com/C_M_Dougherty/status/1448705960340594691?s=20
Imagine a short war in which China is victorious. In such a scenario, the US would have either sat out the conflict, arguably proving itself a paper tiger, or would have seen its military defeated in conflict with the PLA.
Either set of circumstances would significantly undermine the US alliance system in Asia and embolden China to act even more assertively vis-à-vis its neighbors.
Then there are the strategic benefits China would reap from conquering strategic geography in the W. Pacific. China would be able to more readily threaten Guam, Hawaii, Alaska, & CONUS. PRC control of TW would make JPN more difficult to defend & facilitate PRC control of the SCS.
A short conflict over Taiwan might not be a war for all the marbles--but it would be a war for a lot of them. /END
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