Thread by @garvanwalshe

A confrontation between London and the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol carries grave risks for the unity of the UK, because views on Brexit are so much a matter of identity.

This thread explains why. ft.com/content/b5f7dd…

1/ The consequences of disruption to trade will be felt in the UK economically as inflation, shortages, real terms wage stagnation and weakness in the pound.

But who gets the blame depends on how people feel about Brexit.

2/ This #Article16Rising will play well in the “red wall” marginal seats that @Conservatives need for their majority, keep Johnson’s poll numbers high and give Brexit supporters a reason to rally around the

3/ It will galvanise @LibDemPress voters in places similar to Chesham & Amersham, and give their better candidates such as @edwardlucas opportunities to flip longstanding Tory seats.

4/ It will pile pressure on @UKLabour, keeping the tensions in its voter coalition alive, and delight @CCHQPress. This Tory majority was build on Brexit, after all.

5/ Yet though England will still back Boris, it will put heavy strain on politics in the rest of the UK

6/ In Northern Ireland it crates more space for the cross-community @allianceparty as Unionist parties vie for the pro-UK vote and Sinn Fein makes hay from heightened tensions.

7/ But it’s in Scotland where the effects will be most serious. The economic pain the confrontation causes will be blamed on London by @theSNP and most Scots will believe them.

8/ When Brexit identity dominates Scottish politics, the independence movement gains an important edge.

My forthcoming @MartensCentre paper on Brexit and Scotland will cover this in depth.

9/ Though many in England are reading the EU’s protocol proposals as a sign that they will get more if they push harder, the bigger risks are to the unity of the United Kingdom.

ENDS