If this article turns out to be true the UK's integrated review is heading towards an unrealistic direction that will irritate the US and China, unintentionally make the case for EU strategic autonomy, and delight Russia. 1/
Even more than in trade policy, the UK can't escape geography in defence policy. Supporting democratic countries in Asia when China is becoming assertive is morally right, but unwise without the resources to back it up 3/
With the defence budget where it is, the UK needs to concentrate on its near neighbourhood where it has important interests in protecting airspace and sea lanes from Russia and in contributing to security and CT in MENA 4/
It can in particular make a hugely important contribution in air capacity (esp once those F35s eventually arrive) and maritime missions, intelligence, and counter terrorism -- to the defence of its friends and partners in the continent in which it is situated 5/
6/ But this is going to be too expensive if it devotes resources to Asia, where forces will be at huge distances from home bases and likely far more expensive to sustain.
7/ This will reduce their effectiveness in supporting Asian democracies, something that can be done more easily by the rich democracies there (with US support)
8/ It is hard to see a military effort (as opposed to diplomatic support, which includes defence diplomacy in my mind ) focused on Asia making much of a difference to China when more effective things can be done to counter Chinese influence
9/ The United States, would prefer the UK to play a role defending its own region, where it can make a difference. This will raise further questions about British credibility in Washington.
10/ Finally, in the debates about strategic autonomy, one of the arguments against having stronger EU structures is a need to interoperate with the Brits. If the UK focuses on Asia, this argument weakens.
11/Traditionally, the UK has tried to avoid the building up of such a European pillar, so it would be ironic to say the least, if the shift to Asia strengthened the case for its development. ENDs
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