SBF Profile picture
15 Oct, 8 tweets, 2 min read
1) another lazy, incoherent take on COVID:…
2) as with many, this one doesn’t bother attempting a cost benefit analysis.

If it did, it would maybe notice that the claimed annual damages from the flu are around $50b.

How about it’s proposed countermeasures?
3) well, US GDP is $20T, so we have 0.2% to play with—0.4% if you double it to include endemic COVID.

Maybe his proposed interventions would halve the risk—back to 0.2%.

That’s the equivalent of missing 1 day per year of work.
4) the proposed interventions include:

A) vaccines. I think the cost of this alone is ~ 1 work day per year.

B) Zoom instead of meetings. Much of our business wouldn’t have happened without in person meetings.

C) staying home if you have a sick housemate (already 1/year)

D) semi-constant mask wearing

So his proposed solutions outweigh their claimed benefit by something like 5-10x. What’s up with that?

Well, mostly he never bothered checking the cost vs benefits. If he had, he would have been forced to clean up his post.
6) one thing: I’m skeptical of the quoted cost of $11-90b/year for the flu, and comparable for endemic COVID. I would have guessed higher under his assumptions.

Also, though, people are shockingly willing to permanently sacrifice significant %s of their productivity!
7) and, finally, the article is unimaginative.

It purports to consider the long game, but ignores the possibility—I’d say the _probability_—that COVID-19 won’t be the world’s last pandemic. What happens when we keep layering them on?
8) the moral of the story is: always do the math.

Now, sometimes doing the math won’t tell you what to do—it’ll point out that some of your assumptions were probably wrong! But that’s useful too.

And more generally, if you’re not going to bother, what value is your analysis?

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More from @SBF_FTX

16 Oct
1) Don't let the drive for a narrative overcome your priors; aka the slow, sad decay of fivethirtyeight.…
2) This article is dumb.

It is centered around the observation that, this season, Lamar Jackson has been better on early downs while Justin Herbert has been better on late downs.

Why is this????
3) Sample sizes, mostly.

The sample sizes so far are pretty small -- around 60 3rd down attempts per team. The difference between the Ravens and Chargers completion % is about 14% (35% vs 49%); the standard deviation due to raw luck here is ~40%/sqrt(60)*sqrt(2) ~ 7%
Read 13 tweets
13 Oct
1) A while ago I wrote a thread on VCs:

I've now been through a LOT more raising and investing. Some updated thoughts on the process!
3) At its heart, I've been trying to understand the following question:

Let's say a company had $100m of revenue and $90m of expenses in the past year.

It goes out to raise $50m. What valuation does the raise happen at?
Read 26 tweets
7 Oct
1) Ok come on TIME, this article is pretty pathetic.

How did no editors catch that it was logically impossible?…
2) so, if all relationships were monogamous and heterosexual, and there were as many women in the world as men, then the effect of “economic pressures” on the ratio of single men to single women…
3) …would be null, because there would by definition be exactly the same number of each. There would be some number of couples, and that would be exactly the number of men and of women in a relationship.
Read 7 tweets
21 Sep
1) OK so pet peeve:

You're playing against a great offence, so you decide to run the ball more to "keep the ball out of their QB's hands".
2) This is a really common suggestion. 538, known "quants", just suggested it without any pushback!…

But it makes no sense.
3) The thing is, if you run the ball, taking up more clock...

Then that's time *neither* side can take advantage of.

Let's say you can choose between 75% running or 75% passing on this possession, and each have equal % of scoring.
Read 7 tweets
20 Sep
1) Today we're proud to announce that FTX has been registered with the Securities Commission of The Bahamas under the DARE Act of 2020.…
2) We're extremely thankful for the work that the Securities Commission has put into building out a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets--one of the first in the world.
3) Having a comprehensive, nimble regulatory framework with oversight is essential to ensuring that the crypto industry is safe, robust, and growing.

We're excited to be one of the first global crypto exchanges to be part of a comprehensive spot + derivatives regulatory regime.
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6 Sep

Make your own NFTs 🔥

All NFTs will be cross-chain ETH/SOL!

Deposits/withdrawals opening up in the next couple weeks.

You'll also be able to deposit outside NFTs then!
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