SBF Profile picture
16 Oct, 13 tweets, 3 min read
1) Don't let the drive for a narrative overcome your priors; aka the slow, sad decay of fivethirtyeight.…
2) This article is dumb.

It is centered around the observation that, this season, Lamar Jackson has been better on early downs while Justin Herbert has been better on late downs.

Why is this????
3) Sample sizes, mostly.

The sample sizes so far are pretty small -- around 60 3rd down attempts per team. The difference between the Ravens and Chargers completion % is about 14% (35% vs 49%); the standard deviation due to raw luck here is ~40%/sqrt(60)*sqrt(2) ~ 7%
4) So this is a 2 standard deviation effect. Big, right?

Not really. There are 15 games this week; just choosing the largest discrepancy from those games would yield a result this large on average.

And looking specifically at this game, there are a ton of possible factors.
5) But more damningly, there's no attempt to justify this as a likely factor. What makes the priors on it high enough to overcome p-hacking?
6) The thing is, writing constant sports columns is *hard*.

In the end, what's the "right" article on the Chargers vs Ravens?

Probably something like "idk, they're both good, Lamar Jackson might lead the game in rushing, though I guess Austin Ekeler could too."
7) And that article is boring.

But to write a better-than-boring article, you have to say more than the average sports fan would know about a game, and those new facts have to be interesting and meaningful.

That's fucking hard.
8) That's what teams hire departments to try to do--come up with actionable analyses that are better than public ones--and combine with proprietary data and tracking.

It's not impossible--it's just hard. To write great content, you have to be great at it, and try really hard.
9) Relative to the status quo, that accurately describes fivethirtyeight circa 2008: the best public resource for election modeling.

And, maybe, 2012.

But not 2021.
10) Over time, like so many things, its content has become a random milieu of smart-but-not-smart-enough takes, and models that aren't quite good enough to beat common sense.

See, e.g., their 2020 election model--not terrible, but worse than "meh, < 50%, but at least 25%".
11) It's been 8 years since fivethirtyeight's presidential election model was more accurate than the in-house models I helped build, and the rate of real groaners has skyrocketed (…).

The sports journalism, meanwhile, has been even worse.
12) Anyway, I guess this is another thing to file the ever growing list of "things I hope never happen to FTX".
13) In the end, I now see myself has having two core roles:

a) Make sure that in the end we make the right decisions and do the right things; "the buck stops here"

b) don't let institutional inertia decay awa our ability to operate effectively

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More from @SBF_FTX

15 Oct
1) another lazy, incoherent take on COVID:…
2) as with many, this one doesn’t bother attempting a cost benefit analysis.

If it did, it would maybe notice that the claimed annual damages from the flu are around $50b.

How about it’s proposed countermeasures?
3) well, US GDP is $20T, so we have 0.2% to play with—0.4% if you double it to include endemic COVID.

Maybe his proposed interventions would halve the risk—back to 0.2%.

That’s the equivalent of missing 1 day per year of work.
Read 8 tweets
13 Oct
1) A while ago I wrote a thread on VCs:

I've now been through a LOT more raising and investing. Some updated thoughts on the process!
3) At its heart, I've been trying to understand the following question:

Let's say a company had $100m of revenue and $90m of expenses in the past year.

It goes out to raise $50m. What valuation does the raise happen at?
Read 26 tweets
7 Oct
1) Ok come on TIME, this article is pretty pathetic.

How did no editors catch that it was logically impossible?…
2) so, if all relationships were monogamous and heterosexual, and there were as many women in the world as men, then the effect of “economic pressures” on the ratio of single men to single women…
3) …would be null, because there would by definition be exactly the same number of each. There would be some number of couples, and that would be exactly the number of men and of women in a relationship.
Read 7 tweets
21 Sep
1) OK so pet peeve:

You're playing against a great offence, so you decide to run the ball more to "keep the ball out of their QB's hands".
2) This is a really common suggestion. 538, known "quants", just suggested it without any pushback!…

But it makes no sense.
3) The thing is, if you run the ball, taking up more clock...

Then that's time *neither* side can take advantage of.

Let's say you can choose between 75% running or 75% passing on this possession, and each have equal % of scoring.
Read 7 tweets
20 Sep
1) Today we're proud to announce that FTX has been registered with the Securities Commission of The Bahamas under the DARE Act of 2020.…
2) We're extremely thankful for the work that the Securities Commission has put into building out a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets--one of the first in the world.
3) Having a comprehensive, nimble regulatory framework with oversight is essential to ensuring that the crypto industry is safe, robust, and growing.

We're excited to be one of the first global crypto exchanges to be part of a comprehensive spot + derivatives regulatory regime.
Read 5 tweets
6 Sep

Make your own NFTs 🔥

All NFTs will be cross-chain ETH/SOL!

Deposits/withdrawals opening up in the next couple weeks.

You'll also be able to deposit outside NFTs then!
also available at

also both US and non-US users can use FTX US!
Read 4 tweets

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