Thread by @robfordmancs

Its one year since Brexitland was published! In case you aren't familiar with the arguments @ProfSobolewska and I make, here's the "graph of the day" thread I did summarising some of the key data driven points

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1316652799241977856?s=20

@ProfSobolewska And here's @ProfSobolewska 's "quote of the day" thread picking out some of the most important arguments made in the book text

https://twitter.com/ProfSobolewska/status/1319569538262929408?s=20

@ProfSobolewska Identity divides between graduates and school leavers, ethnic minorities and identity conservative white voters, have continued to reshape our politics since the book came out.

@ProfSobolewska The pattern of swings seen in the English local and mayoral elections this past May maps very strongly onto local demographics - the Conservatives' advance continued in areas where Leave voting, English identifying white school leavers are concentrated continued...

@ProfSobolewska While both Labour and the Greens recovered in areas with the highest shares of graduates and Remain voters

@ProfSobolewska Meanwhile, the Lib Dem victory in the Chesham and Amersham by-election confirmed the Conservatives' vulnerability in "blue wall seats" with large shares of remain leaning, identity liberal university graduates, something we predicted in Brexitland

@ProfSobolewska While the local elections confirmed the continued political salience of education and ethnicity, two years of bumper university intakes following COVID assessment fiascos have accelerated the relentless process of demographic change underling the rise of Brexitland

The share of graduates in the electorate is likely close to 2% higher now than when Johnson won in 2019, and the share of identity liberal ethnic minority voters is also growing fast (something the shift from EU to non-EU immigration may accelerate).

Meanwhile the relentless decline in the share of white school leavers in England and Wales, the post-Brexit Conservatives' core electorate, has continued. The demographic tide runs against the current Conservative coalition, but demographic change is slow.

If this thread has whetted your appetite, you can buy the book here! (other book stores and internet outlets also available):

amazon.co.uk/Brexitland-Ide…