Allen Au 🧢 Profile picture
Oct 18, 2021 13 tweets 7 min read Read on X
#BTC has been consolidating between $59K & $63K. Breaking ATH soon?

TLDR: Yes.
Revisit or even set new ATH ~10/31/21. Max. price for this rally is $70K-$73K
Why?
-Buy & Sell Oscillator & MRGO-14: Buy
-TI: Bullish
-Futures: Bullish w/ some selling
-Options: Bullish
-TA: Bullish
1/ MRGO-14 uses the difference in changes in #BTC's market & realized price to find buy/sell signals for BTC.

Green ➡️ Buy
Red ➡️ Sell

MGRO-14 has flipped green since 10/4/21. Image
2/ My #BTC Buy & Sell Oscillator has been >1 since 10/5/21.

Simple
Oscillator crosses above 1➡️Buy
Oscillator crosses below 1➡️Sell
Oscillator>2➡️Interim/cycle top

Advanced
Oscillator>1 &📈➡️Buy
Oscillator>1 &📉➡️Take profit
Oscillator<1 &📉➡️Short
Oscillator<1 &📈➡️Take profit Image
3/ On-chain #BTC realized volume in USD shows that the major resistance & support at:

R: $63.5K
S: $61.5K/$60K/$59K/$58.5K/$58K

Beyond $63.5K, BTC will be on well on its way to price discovery. Image
4/ On 10/4/21, #BTC's 21D EMA crossed back above its 34D EMA and its CM Super Guppy flipped green.

The price action of BTC has been bullish since these 2 technical indicators (TI) turned bullish. Image
5a CME #BTC futures annualized premium is double digit positive from October to December 2021, showing the contango trade is going strong for US institutions (sell BTC futures & buy spot BTC).

Bullish! Image
5b The #BTC perpetual futures liquidations for longs are trending down, while shorts are going up.

Bullish! Image
5c(i) After some comparison, I found token-margined funding rates for #BTC perpetual futures offer better insights into the price action of BTC than the USD/USDT margined funding rates or overall funding rates.

Particularly, the ones of Deribit & Bitmex offer the best guidance. Image
5c(ii) Currently, the token-margined funding rates of Deribit & Bitmex are positive. This is bullish for the price for #BTC.

When Deribit's >0.06%, traders could be over-leveraged & get liquidated, leading to a down draft for BTC's price.
5d/ #BTC futures OI are building up along with rising BTC's prices. It has taken out the $19B level & has grown to $23.1B. It looks it will challenge the ATH level of $27.4B, which coincides with BTC's ATH.

As the funding rates aren't excessive, BTC's price has more upside. Image
6/ $2.8B of Deribit #BTC options are expiring on 10/29/21.

Max Pain= $50K
Put/call Ratio= 0.57

The put call ratio indicates traders are bullish about BTC's price in October 2021.

25 delta skew for 7 & 30 days are showing the same bullish trend. ImageImage
7a/ Technically, After breaking out of the trend line c, which is the 0.786 Fib Extension at $58K, #BTC shot up to almost $63K, but got rejected at trend line b & has since been consolidating between b & the pitch fork upper parallel trend line.

$58K-$59K offer good support. Image
7b/ #BTC broke out of a bullish pennant on 10/11/21 & the target price of this breakout is $70.5K.

Based on Fib Ext., BTC could reach between 1.272 Fib ($69.7K) & 1.414 Fib ($73K). There is confluence here.

BTC is likely on track to revisit & break its ATH around 10/31/21. Image

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More from @AllenAu11

Jan 18, 2022
When will #BTC's correction be over? How low could its price get?

1. Bull market isn't over as fundamentals are strong
2. BTC is in another mid-cycle correction
3. If $40K-$41K support is breached, BTC could fall to $29K-$37K by end of Jan. 2022, but would quickly rebound >$40K Image
1. #BTC's fundamentals as reflected by key on-chain data are strong. Hash rate has reached a new ATH. LT HODLers continue to hold onto their BTC despite BTC's recent correction. Supply dynamics favor a continuation of the bull run rather than BTC diving into a bear phase.
2. BTC's price continues to track its move from Jan. 21- Jul. 21. (areas marked in pink boxes), but could be 5 days shorter in duration.

The current correction is similar to that of last summer & thus could be over at the end of Jan. 2022.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 15, 2022
#Bitcoin Cycle Peak Dash Board

TLDR:
1. The Dash Board is revamped with the update of the BLX & Top Cap models & the intro. of LGC model

2. 4 models to better gauge peak timing

3. Projected Cycle Peak

Timing: 2nd-3rd Qtr. 2022
Price: $100K-$200K
Hopium Price: $320K Image
1a/ The #BTC Cycle Peak Dash Board is revamped with the update of the Top Cap & BLX Models.



1b/ The #BTC LGC (Logarithmic Growth Curves) model is introduced to gauge cycle peak timing & cycle peak price taking into account the growth pattern of BTC.

Read 12 tweets
Jan 12, 2022
#BTC is finally rebounding, but how high could its price get?

TLDR:
If impulse move plays out:
High: $74K
Middle: $62-$64K
Low: $46K-$51K
Timing: Mid-Jan. to End of Mar. 2022

If move fails, BTC could test $32K-$37K
Timing: Mid-Jan to Mid-Feb. 2022
1a/ Parallel channel breakout

If #BTC breaks out from its downward sloping parallel channel, it could have a price increase of $17.2K from the point of breakout. If there is a confirmed break of the upper channel (~$44.5K), the target price is ~$62K.

Strong resistance at $46K.
1b/ If #BTC fails to break out of the channel, it'd retest the $40K-$41K resistance again before resuming up. Breaching that, it'd fall between $32K & $37K.

As the bull phase is still intact, it shouldn't fall below (Wave 2= $29.2K*).

* Not Elliott Wave count
Read 6 tweets
Jan 10, 2022
The following #BTC peak model with time-based Fib is inspired by @TechDev_52 who combines BTC log growth curves with Fib levels on a 2-week BTC chart.

TLDR:
BTC Cycle Peak
Price:
- High: $180K
- Middle: $120K
- Low: $96K
Time: 2nd Qtr. '22

2.618 Fib: $370K (1st Qtr. '24)? Image
1a/This model (LGC) is constructed on Tradingview with #BTC log growth curves developed by @quantadelic with log Fib levels & time-based Fib zones added on a 2-week BTC chart. This is similar to TechDev’s chart, but the cycle peak log Fib level is at 2.618 & not 2.272.
2a/ To derive the timing of the cycle peak, time-based Fib zones are drawn from mid-cycle correction to the peak of the impulse move after that correction at or above the 1.618 log Fib level.

In past cycles, the peak occurred right between time-based 1.618 Fib & 2 Fib zones.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 6, 2022
Some people are calling a giant head & should pattern for #BTC with a target price of $10K-$18K. Possible, but highly unlikely! Why?

TLDR:
1. US10Y: Bullish
2. BTC Futures: Bullish
3. BTC Options Bullish
4. Technicals: BTC could grind down to $40K-$41K & then rebound to $64K
1a/ #BTC's price has been highly correlated with US10Y & they had moved in lock-steps since 11/8/21 until last week. Traders risked off ahead of the Fed minutes & sold stocks & BTC.
1b/ The Fed will probably quicken the pace of tapering & raise rates sooner, but will likely allow their treasuries holdings to mature (no quantitative tightening or shrinking of B/S).

As long as the US economy is growing, a modest rate hike won't crash the markets.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 5, 2022
UPDATE: BLX Cycle Peak Model

#BTC again closed below the arc of the BLX model on 12/31/21 so that invalidated 1/9/22 & $350K peak predictions.

Started afresh, fixed model & found 2 numbers: 608 & 2191.

TLDR:
1. Cycle Peak Price
- $325K (Best case)
- $95K-$155K (Base case)
👇
TLDR (Cont...)

2. Projected Peak Timing: Early 2nd Qtr. 2022
3. Model points to lengthening of cycle
4. Projected next cycle peak in late 3rd Qtr. 2026 when hyperbitcoinization may occur
1/ The fact that #BTC prices closed below the arc of the original BLX model in 2 consecutive months means that something is wrong either in the model or bull phase is over.

I don't think the cycle peak is in so I started anew. I used parallel channels to reconstruct the model.
Read 17 tweets

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