Thread by @AllenAu11

#BTC has been consolidating between $59K & $63K. Breaking ATH soon?

TLDR: Yes.
Revisit or even set new ATH ~10/31/21. Max. price for this rally is $70K-$73K
Why?
-Buy & Sell Oscillator & MRGO-14: Buy
-TI: Bullish
-Futures: Bullish w/ some selling
-Options: Bullish
-TA: Bullish

1/ MRGO-14 uses the difference in changes in #BTC's market & realized price to find buy/sell signals for BTC.

Green ➡️ Buy
Red ➡️ Sell

MGRO-14 has flipped green since 10/4/21.

2/ My #BTC Buy & Sell Oscillator has been >1 since 10/5/21.

Simple
Oscillator crosses above 1➡️Buy
Oscillator crosses below 1➡️Sell
Oscillator>2➡️Interim/cycle top

Advanced
Oscillator>1 &📈➡️Buy
Oscillator>1 &📉➡️Take profit
Oscillator<1 &📉➡️Short
Oscillator<1 &📈➡️Take profit

3/ On-chain #BTC realized volume in USD shows that the major resistance & support at:

R: $63.5K
S: $61.5K/$60K/$59K/$58.5K/$58K

Beyond $63.5K, BTC will be on well on its way to price discovery.

4/ On 10/4/21, #BTC's 21D EMA crossed back above its 34D EMA and its CM Super Guppy flipped green.

The price action of BTC has been bullish since these 2 technical indicators (TI) turned bullish.

5a CME #BTC futures annualized premium is double digit positive from October to December 2021, showing the contango trade is going strong for US institutions (sell BTC futures & buy spot BTC).

Bullish!

5b The #BTC perpetual futures liquidations for longs are trending down, while shorts are going up.

Bullish!

5c(i) After some comparison, I found token-margined funding rates for #BTC perpetual futures offer better insights into the price action of BTC than the USD/USDT margined funding rates or overall funding rates.

Particularly, the ones of Deribit & Bitmex offer the best guidance.

5c(ii) Currently, the token-margined funding rates of Deribit & Bitmex are positive. This is bullish for the price for #BTC.

When Deribit's >0.06%, traders could be over-leveraged & get liquidated, leading to a down draft for BTC's price.

5d/ #BTC futures OI are building up along with rising BTC's prices. It has taken out the $19B level & has grown to $23.1B. It looks it will challenge the ATH level of $27.4B, which coincides with BTC's ATH.

As the funding rates aren't excessive, BTC's price has more upside.

6/ $2.8B of Deribit #BTC options are expiring on 10/29/21.

Max Pain= $50K
Put/call Ratio= 0.57

The put call ratio indicates traders are bullish about BTC's price in October 2021.

25 delta skew for 7 & 30 days are showing the same bullish trend.

7a/ Technically, After breaking out of the trend line c, which is the 0.786 Fib Extension at $58K, #BTC shot up to almost $63K, but got rejected at trend line b & has since been consolidating between b & the pitch fork upper parallel trend line.

$58K-$59K offer good support.

7b/ #BTC broke out of a bullish pennant on 10/11/21 & the target price of this breakout is $70.5K.

Based on Fib Ext., BTC could reach between 1.272 Fib ($69.7K) & 1.414 Fib ($73K). There is confluence here.

BTC is likely on track to revisit & break its ATH around 10/31/21.