1) Banning fossil fuel heating by 2035: The document is not entirely clear what is being planned. It talks about setting an 'ambition' but it remains unclear whether this means setting an outright ban of installing new fossil fuel heating systems.
2) The document also talks about the 'aim' to phase out new natural gas boilers by 2035 and highlights the potential for further policy. Further detail needs to be seen before we can be confident that 2035 is a hard regulatory stop.
3) New Boiler Upgrade Scheme will provide £5k for air source heat pumps and £6k for ground source heat pumps. This is significantly less generous than the current Renewable Heat Incentive but has the advantage of being paid upfront.
4) The total amount of funding for 3 years is £450m. That's £150m per year and equates to about 30,000 heat pumps supported per year. That's about the same as current installation levels. With the RHI coming to an end it is difficult to see how it would boost the market.
5) There seems to be no differentiation between low & higher income customers. For many low income households a £5k grant will not be sufficient. Would be good to see more targeted support for low income households as we @RegAssistProj pointed out here. raponline.org/wp-content/upl…
6) Rebalancing levies to make heat pumps cheaper to run: The document correctly states that 'current pricing of electricity and gas does not incentivise consumers
to make green choices, such as switching from gas boilers to electric heat pumps'.
7) Government will look at options to shift or rebalance energy levies and obligations away from electricity to gas over this decade. A decision will be made in 2022 following a call for evidence. This is a much needed step but lack of detail at this point how far it goes.
8) There is another regulatory element in this strategy that follows the approach of many other European countries in banning the installation of new oil and LPG boilers off the gas grid. This will already happen in 5 years.
9) What is missing is a major step forward for energy efficiency. The document repeats previous commitments but we still don't have a properly funded energy efficiency programme for the able-to-pay market. It's been like this for almost a decade now.
10) Hydrogen: The document summarises existing research initiatives and says by 2026 (after this parliament) government will make a strategic decision on its viability.
11) Hydrogen ready boilers are mentioned and government will consult on this. But strategy says it aims 'that by 2035, hydrogen-ready boilers are not installed in areas that do not and will not have access to a supply of low-carbon hydrogen in the future'.
12) So what do we make of the strategy overall?
😀 Good: End-date for installing fossil heating (if confirmed through regulation)
😀 Good: Reform of electricity levies
😐 Not so good: Modest levels heat pump funding
☹️ Bad: Still no properly-funded energy efficiency programme
13) And a big thanks for the hard-working civil servants in @beisgovuk who have put this together under immense political pressure. It's not perfect but a big step forward.
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🚫Ban of fossil heating systems to be installed after 2035
This is a huge step. The UK is the first country in the world doing this and it replicates what we have already for petrol and diesel cars. Details to be seen yet but a big step forward.
💷£450m grants for heat pumps
The current funding policy for heat pumps will run out next year and has been generous. £450m over 3 years translates into 30,000 heat pumps per year. That’s not enough to get us on track to 600,000 per year and supports current installation levels.
1) It is widely accepted that heat pumps will play a major role for decarbonising heating. But their running costs are usually higher than gas boilers. This is because we put most of the climate policy costs on electricity and almost none on fossil fuels.
1) Let’s take a step back to understand what’s going on here. The Energy Company Obligation (ECO) is a long-standing energy efficiency programme. The first variation of its kind started in 1994. 10 years ago I wrote my PhD thesis on it @ecioxford. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
2) ECO (or the Supplier Obligation as it is also known) has always supported installing new fossil fuel boilers. Especially during EEC 1+2 and CERT millions of condensing boilers were installed. This led to very large energy savings. centrica.com/media/1635/bg_…
The UK hydrogen strategy is finally out. My take on it in this thread. gov.uk/government/new…
1) The hydrogen strategy rightly identifies hydrogen as a key ingredient for the energy transition especially in areas such as power, industry and parts of the transport sector.
2) As my quote on @BBCNews says “But, as the strategy admits, there won’t be significant quantities of low carbon hydrogen for some time. We need to use it where there are few alternatives and not as a like-for-like replacement of gas.” bbc.com/news/science-e…
Not only can we afford the costs of net zero but we will have to. The alternative is a disastrous and very costly future. Excellent piece by @jameskirkup@SMFthinktank@spectator.
1) The climate deniers lost the battle around the evidence base and failed with their attempts to discredit the science more than 10 years ago.
2) Unable to challenge climate science the deniers have now turned to the costs of net zero as the new battleground. On a weekly basis they attack policies driving decarbonisation as being unaffordable.
In recent weeks claims have been made that electrification of end uses doesn’t deliver carbon savings because it runs on dirty fossil fuel generation. I argue here that these arguments do not stack up and prolong the combustion of fossil fuels. Thread 1/n energymonitor.ai/tech/electrifi…
2) Estimating carbon savings associated with electrification is complex. A number of analysts have made admirable attempts to appraise emissions savings from a shift to EVs and heat pumps. These studies show electrification leads to significant reductions in carbon emissions.
3) The German media reported widely on research claiming electric cars that run on power generated by coal are no cleaner than petrol and diesel cars. @AukeHoekstra quickly debunked this.