I really REALLY didn’t want to have to do another Covid thread. Really. But given the numbers are on the rise - along with the inevitable hot takes (we’re heading for disaster! The vaccines aren’t working!), I’m dipping my toe back in the waters. Hopefully not for long. 🧵
Let’s start with this chart. You’ve prob seen it elsewhere. This Scary Chart shows that the UK’s COVID situation looks UNIQUELY terrible. Just look at that red line compared with other countries!
But that chart 👆misses out the most important bit of context: for better or worse the UK is doing far more Covid testing than almost any other country (first chart here). Put those two datapoints together to see positive tests as a % of total and UK situation looks less dramatic
In broad terms, UK prevalence is certainly rising. Certainly higher than in much of Europe. But it’s nowhere near as dramatic as that initial chart implies. Similar thing for hospitalisations, where the real outlier is the US. UK def on the rise though.
Much the same story for deaths. Rising above much of Europe, but NB UK was well below the rest most of summer.
The point is not to diminish these deaths. They are on the rise and that’s significant.
But there’s no point in scary charts that misrepresent the scale of the issue.
OK that’s enough cross-country comparisons. How is the situation in the UK re cases, admissions and deaths? These charts tell some of that story. In short, the vaccines seem to be doing their job. Back in the late 2020 wave, look how correlated those lines were. Not any more.
I say the “vaccines are working”. But hang on: in that case why are even more vaccinated people dying of COVID now than unvaccinated people?
The answer comes back to CONTEXT, which is all-important here. Consider the latest data from English hospitals… assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
In the most recent period (13 Sept - 10 Oct) there were 2,805 Covid deaths in this database.
2,136 of them were fully-vaccinated.
Only 557 of were unvaccinated people (NB by unvaccinated I mean no doses at all).
Easy to assume from that the vaccines aren’t working. But hold on
Let’s deal with the most important function of vaccines: to reduce the likelihood of death. Are they doing that?
To find that out we need to check these numbers against two important bits of context: vs age and vs total caseload. In short, to work out a crude case fatality rate
The point here is we want to compare like with like. Age groups with age groups. Because, as we all know, covid mortality is very age-dependent.
So first let's break down those 2,805 deaths by age. And unsurprisingly the vast majority (2,486) are among those aged over-60.
Now let’s take those 2,486 Covid deaths among over-60s and check the percentage who are double vaccinated: 80%. Very high. But lower than the% of this age group which is double vaccinated.
We can’t get a CFR, crude or otherwise, without comparing those deaths to the total number of cases among that age group: 72,063 (so high I needed to shrink the deaths bar so they’re in proper proportion).
88% of those cases were vaccinated.
88% vs 80%. Not much difference. But…
Now let's do the final bit necessary to come up with a CFR and work out what percentage of those cases - vaccinated and unvaccinated respectively.
So we divide the small bits by the big bits...
And here's what you end up with.
Among over-60s, the percentage of these FULLY VACCINATED covid cases (63,767) who go on to die is 3.2%.
Among the same age group, the percentage of UNVACCINATED (2,691) cases who went on to die was 14.3%.
I suppose the overarching point is to be a bit wary of scary numbers - from all sides.
There is certainly reason for caution and concern re Covid right now. And it's certainly right to scrutinise whether the vaccines are doing the job.
But CONTEXT MATTERS!
Oh and let me know if those animated charts are helpful or just annoying. Something of an experiment. Full video explainer of all this with me prancing around in front of the big screen is on @skynews tonight so, if you aren't already, tune in!
Finally here’s crude case fatality rates by age and vaccination status for all age groups.
As the name suggests, these are crude: for a proper CFR you’d want to tie cases to deaths, while this is more of a snapshot over a period.
But it’s about the best real world data we have.

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More from @EdConwaySky

19 Oct
If net zero is going to happen we need to re-do the industrial revolution all over again.
It’s hard to express how big a deal this is.
But I’ve had a go here:
edmundconway.com/the-industrial…
The point is the Industrial Revolution wasn’t just about steel or textile manufacture.
It was a chemicals revolution
A concrete revolution
A glassmaking revolution
An aluminium revolution
A metals refining revolution
Plastics, silicon, fertilisers, batteries… I could go on…
And, guess what, ALL of those processes emit carbon. Sometimes via energy (OK so we can power them via renewables)
But also invariably carbon is emitted as part of the chemical/industrial process itself.
This chart from today’s HMT review of net zero underlines it.
CO2 EVERYWHERE
Read 4 tweets
18 Oct
Here’s a thread abt a few of the most important things you need to know about getting to net zero and eliminating carbon emissions, but before we get stuck in let’s begin with a question.
How much do you suppose governments around the world are spending on research into energy?
If you’re anything like me you’re probably assuming they’re spending more than ever before. After all, they say they’re serious about averting climate change. They’ve pledged to eliminate emissions by 2050, right? And to do that we’re going to need serious tech breakthroughs…
This is an @IEA chart that underlines that need for tech breakthroughs. These bars show you how the world eliminates CO2 emissions by 2050. The key thing to focus on is the yellow bit.
Nearly HALF of all the emissions reductions are due to “technologies under development”
Read 30 tweets
8 Oct
New: Kristalina Georgieva's position as IMF managing director is hanging in the balance. She's up before the IMF Executive Board today in what insiders fear could turn into a dismissal hearing. If so it would make her the shortest-lived IMF MD in fund history.
Georgieva's position has been in doubt since an internal investigation concluded she was involved in manipulation of data in a key World Bank report, Doing Business, which favoured China. She denies any wrongdoing. If other things weren't aligned against her perhaps she'd survive
IMF sources fear Georgieva has fallen out of favour with the White House, and given the US has the most votes at the Exec board that is a big problem for her. She may retain the backing of some EU states but most are waiting to see what the Biden admin decides
Read 6 tweets
28 Sep
It’s all very well govt assuring us there’s no shortage of petrol supply, or that the crisis is abating.
I've no reason to doubt them.
But surely the simplest way to assure everyone would be to publish the last few weeks' data on fuel stocks and sales?
news.sky.com/story/when-jus…
We know such data exists because up until v recently BEIS was publishing it - every week - as a COVID-related stat.
They stopped doing so v recently.
Based on the publication schedule we won’t get fresh data on this latest period for MONTHS.
This is not good enough.
There’s nothing stopping govt from publishing this data, save - I presume - for an inherent bias towards secrecy.
If they published it it could prove definitively that there was no shortage in forecourts before the panic buying.
So for heavens sake SHOW US THE DATA…
Read 5 tweets
21 Sep
The energy crisis is complicated, almost certainly more complicated than you imagine. So be wary of seductive catch-all explanations: it’s Russia’s fault! It’s climate change policy’s fault! It’s all because the wind isn’t blowing! The reality is there’s a lot going on at once.🧵
A lot of people are convinced this is all because Russia has restricted flows of gas. And flows coming from the Yamal pipeline certainly dropped sharply in Aug. BUT actually Russian flows are UP vs start of 2021 (albeit lower than pre-pandemic). Good @WoodMackenzie chart:
A far bigger part of the explanation for rising gas prices is those two red arrows on the left of the chart. We’re not getting as much LNG tanker deliveries as usual and domestic gas fields aren’t producing as much as usual. These seem like bigger deals than Russian supply.
Read 14 tweets
15 Sep
BIG jump in UK CPI inflation.
Up from annual rate of 2% in July to 3.2% in Aug.
Not just the highest level of inflation since 2012, it’s also the biggest month-on-month change in the level in the history of this inflation measure (going back to 1997)
Here’s one reason to believe the inflation rise may be temporary: the main contributing factor was a BIG jump in prices, this year vs last, in restaurants.
And what was happening last year? Eat Out to Help Out.
Once that washes out, some of the upward pressure should go away…
Here’s a reason to believe the rise in inflation may NOT be temporary. Lots of pricing pressure in the pipeline, inc THIS: energy prices are going up v v fast, which will feed into household bills in the coming months. And that’s before you consider costs of raw goods…
Read 5 tweets

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