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28 Sep, 5 tweets, 2 min read
It’s all very well govt assuring us there’s no shortage of petrol supply, or that the crisis is abating.
I've no reason to doubt them.
But surely the simplest way to assure everyone would be to publish the last few weeks' data on fuel stocks and sales?
news.sky.com/story/when-jus…
We know such data exists because up until v recently BEIS was publishing it - every week - as a COVID-related stat.
They stopped doing so v recently.
Based on the publication schedule we won’t get fresh data on this latest period for MONTHS.
This is not good enough.
There’s nothing stopping govt from publishing this data, save - I presume - for an inherent bias towards secrecy.
If they published it it could prove definitively that there was no shortage in forecourts before the panic buying.
So for heavens sake SHOW US THE DATA…
BEIS announced a while back - well before this episode - they’d move to quarterly reporting on these stats, which were becoming less relevant as UK moved out of lockdown. Fair enough I suppose (if annoying to data nerds).
But if ever there was a moment to update the data it’s NOW
I asked BEIS yday whether they would publish the numbers in the public interest.
I’m still waiting to find out why they can’t produce them.
I am told they are looking into it.
But still no numbers.
I’ll keep you posted on whether that changes.

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More from @EdConwaySky

Ed Conway Profile picture
21 Sep
The energy crisis is complicated, almost certainly more complicated than you imagine. So be wary of seductive catch-all explanations: it’s Russia’s fault! It’s climate change policy’s fault! It’s all because the wind isn’t blowing! The reality is there’s a lot going on at once.🧵
A lot of people are convinced this is all because Russia has restricted flows of gas. And flows coming from the Yamal pipeline certainly dropped sharply in Aug. BUT actually Russian flows are UP vs start of 2021 (albeit lower than pre-pandemic). Good @WoodMackenzie chart:
A far bigger part of the explanation for rising gas prices is those two red arrows on the left of the chart. We’re not getting as much LNG tanker deliveries as usual and domestic gas fields aren’t producing as much as usual. These seem like bigger deals than Russian supply.
Read 14 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
15 Sep
BIG jump in UK CPI inflation.
Up from annual rate of 2% in July to 3.2% in Aug.
Not just the highest level of inflation since 2012, it’s also the biggest month-on-month change in the level in the history of this inflation measure (going back to 1997)
Here’s one reason to believe the inflation rise may be temporary: the main contributing factor was a BIG jump in prices, this year vs last, in restaurants.
And what was happening last year? Eat Out to Help Out.
Once that washes out, some of the upward pressure should go away…
Here’s a reason to believe the rise in inflation may NOT be temporary. Lots of pricing pressure in the pipeline, inc THIS: energy prices are going up v v fast, which will feed into household bills in the coming months. And that’s before you consider costs of raw goods…
Read 5 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
7 Sep
By my reckoning today's NI/health levy is the sixth biggest tax increase in at least three decades.
It's massive!
Here's how it compares to the other biggest tax rises.
Combine it with the Corp tax increase & 2021 may end up being the biggest tax-raising year in recent times
Here's another striking pattern which will be exacerbated by today's non-Budget: just look at how income tax and National Insurance rates have begun to converge in recent years.
If this continues much longer NI will actually be higher!
NB this is only the employee NI main rate
As @TheIFS have pointed out, the tax burden is now heading for the highest sustained level ever. Note it was ever so slightly higher in 1969/70 but that was a bit of a blip. Whereas the govt plans are for taxes to be high for a long time.
Read 5 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
1 Sep
While this is the highest daily #COVID19 death figure since March, a BIG note of caution:
This is in large part a bank holiday effect (v low over weekend so registrations now just catching up).
Deaths certainly rising but v much more gradual than this single day’s figure implies.
It’s too early to know what happens next.
But the data on Covid deaths is STILL tentatively promising.
Dark blue line is cases; red line is deaths.
Look at the relationship between cases & deaths in the previous wave. Then look, post-vax, at how much it’s weakened.
Back in June when I first pointed out that those two lines were diverging (👇) there were a few who predicted that it couldn’t last.
But it has lasted.
Yes deaths are rising; there are many tragic stories.
But across the country the trend is v v different to last time.
Read 4 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
16 Aug
What’s the most underrated material in the modern world?
How about CONCRETE?
Often dismissed as boring, ugly & inert.
Concrete is actually surprising, dynamic & incredibly complex.
With that in mind here are a few reasons why we need to start talking about concrete 🪨
🧵 Image
First off, we use a lot of it. A hell of a lot of it.
Every minute of every day, construction firms around the world pour out the equivalent of more than 200,000 bathtubs of concrete.
Every minute.
Every year we pour enough concrete to cover the entire landmass of England.
The vast majority of concrete these days is being poured in China, to build bridges, skyscrapers, high speed rail etc.
Indeed China produced more cement in the past three years alone (2018-2020) than the US did in EVERY year since the first Portland cement plant opened in 1865. Image
Read 40 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
27 Jul
Here’s a story about a #COVID19 datapoint that looks very scary, but turns out to be quite reassuring.
The statistic is buried in a recent @PHE_uk release.
I’ve ringed it here.
It’s the no of double-jabbed people who’ve died with Delta variant assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
More vaccinated people are dying w/ the Delta variant of #COVID19 than unvaccinated.
Indeed, look at those aged over-50 and the proportion is even higher:
279 vaccinated people dying vs 131 unvaccinated.
More than double.
Scary, right? Well not necessarily…
Let’s run through it
There are two things to bear in mind here.
First, the vaccines are not 100% effective. They reduce your likelihood of dying of the disease. But even after vaccination some age groups are still relatively vulnerable. @d_spiegel explained this well here theguardian.com/theobserver/co…
Read 13 tweets

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