Thread by @AkshatRathi

#COP26 warning: There's going to be a LOT of media attention. That's very good. But it also means you're going to get a LOT of takes on what it all means.

Going to get a head start and give you THE take.

Ok, not really, but here's a framework to put the takes in their place.🧵

For the uninitiated, which I suspect is >99% of the world, COP is an annual United Nations meeting (except in pandemic years) that creates the space for countries to work together to stabilize global temperatures, adapt to the warming that's inevitable and save the planet.

Do I have your attention now? No, really, that's important. Most COP meetings are so procedurally boring that most news stories about them are equally boring. And that means most news readers don't really care about this planet-saving meeting.

It's why you get leaders like COP President @AlokSharma_RDG say this upcoming meeting it's "Make or Break" summit. Get it wrong at Glasgow and the world has no chance left to avert climate catastrophe. THE STAKES ARE HIGH.

Yes, but not really.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Since the Paris agreement was signed in 2015, it started a clock that meant every five years countries had to raise their ambition at cutting emissions. That's because there's a HUGE gap in what countries have committed to do now and what will be needed to meet climate goals.

What are the climate goals? Paris said countries commit to keeping global warming "well below 2°C" relative to pre-industrial levels and "pursuing efforts" for 1.5°C. But left a lot of other things to be dealt with later.

Really worth reading the 16 pages unfccc.int/files/meetings…

That's what makes #COP26 a bigger deal than most other COPs. Living on a world that's 3°C warmer is VERY different from one that is 1.5°C warmer. We are 1.1°C.

Still, in the intervening years, there's been a ton of progress. Don't buy into doomism.

https://twitter.com/AkshatRathi/status/1447289828060565510

Now let's get into the specifics. @climate's set out the priorities for what to look out for at #COP26.

1. Higher commitments from countries
2. Rules for a global carbon market
3. $100 billion in finance for developing countries
4. Reducing coal use
5. Reducing methane emissions

That's your scorecard and your best way to judge whether #COP26 helped the world make progress. It's a much better way to judge success or failure, than just buying into some take about whether it was a success or failure.

Here's a prediction: Most takes you'll see in the next three weeks are about how it's all so difficult and eventually how COP was a failure.

In one way, they will be right. Anything we do now is not going to be enough to avoid some pretty bad impacts.

https://twitter.com/AkshatRathi/status/1446378289828933655

But all this FAILURE narrative is likely to obscure a very important point: AVOIDING EVERY 0.1°C OF WARMING IS A VICTORY.

We've delayed climate action for so long that there are lots of low-hanging fruit wins, within the larger failure of humanity. bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-…

I warn you about this because there will be a LOT of news copy written by journalists who have not covered climate change closely. That's not a bad thing, but it will mean the coverage is likely to be skewed toward the who won and who lost and what went wrong.

Now to more positive things. There's been a sea-change in how the business and finance world sees climate change since the Paris agreement was signed.

Typically business and finance have a side table at COP meetings. The noises they make provide political cover for governments.

#COP26 could show what business and finance can do in their own right. It's finally sunk in that climate risk is business and financial risk.

There will be big coalitions coming together making pledges. Working together to stop any one from being disadvantaged for going green.

That does not mean business and finance will not try to spin small things into big PR events. There will be a lot of greenwashing and now is the time to follow climate journalists you can trust to help you sort through it.

https://twitter.com/AkshatRathi/status/1451157489425297411

Whatever happens in the end, whether there is a deal on the five things below or the myriad other things that need to be sorted (like transparency around how countries report emissions), #COP26 will come to an end. Then we'll start again for #COP27.

https://twitter.com/AkshatRathi/status/1451228959610392583

Every win will help "make" the planet a little less "broken". Every loss will do the opposite.

So spare a thought for all the journalists who will try to get you as much of what's happening at #COP26 as possible. It's going to be a tough one regardless.