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Daniel Zhao Profile picture
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21 Oct, 4 tweets, 3 min read
The answer is yes. The Oct '21 Beige Book is the 1st time "mental health" for workers has been discussed

Mental health has only been mentioned 6 times previously. The 1st mention was in Apr 2020 & all prior mentions were about demand for mental health services, not worker health
And this pairs nicely with new research from @LaurenTEcon out today finding employee discussions of mental health & burnout on @Glassdoor have more than doubled since the pandemic began:

Overall, this is also part of a broader emphasis on company culture & employee engagement that has grown since the Great Recession and first appeared in the Beige Book in 2017.
I can't count. Correction: May 2020 is the first mention, not April 2020. federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…

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More from @DanielBZhao

Daniel Zhao Profile picture
22 Oct
New BLS state #JOLTS data today! Playing around with it:
-Hires per job opening don't seem to be improving in August
-Gap seems roughly stable btwn states withdrawing early from UI vs those not
-UI withdrawal proponents would want to see evidence of hires/opening ⬆️ , gap ⬆️ Image
Consistent w/ the rough comparisons in state employment data released this morning as well. See @bencasselman's thread for findings & appropriate caveats (most of which apply to the JOLTS data too):
The longer history shows the gap is not very stable btwn groups & the range of values is very wide, emphasizing the difficulties in this type of analysis.

Interestingly, early withdrawing states have generally had higher hire yields except early in the pandemic. Image
Read 4 tweets
Daniel Zhao Profile picture
21 Oct
Initial UI claims SA fell slightly last week to 290K, hitting another new intra-crisis low.

Initial claims are continuing to decline as the Delta wave recedes. Delta is on the downswing but cases are still elevated, suggesting further room for improvement.

#joblessclaims 1/
Initial PUA claims have dropped to 2K as backdated claims fade post-expiration.

The last day to file a backdated claim was 10/6 in CA, which accounted for >2/3rd of new PUA claims in the U.S. 2 wks ago.

#joblessclaims 2/
Continuing UI claims (SA) hit another intra-crisis low too, at 2.48 million. The decline has accelerated since mid-September, perhaps due to increased hiring after the Delta wave peaked in early-to-mid September

#joblessclaims 3/
Read 4 tweets
Daniel Zhao Profile picture
20 Oct
The expiration of federal unemployment benefits was mentioned 7 times in the the Fed's October Beige Book today:

3: little to no impact
2: modest increase in applicants/workers
1: expects future increases
1: concern about negative impact on household finances of recipients Image
Vaccine mandates were also mentioned in 6 sections. Discussions mostly about turnover, though more forward-looking as mandates start to take effect.

2: Increased turnover
2: Turnover, but less than expected
2: Concern about future turnover Image
Incidentally, I wonder if this is the first time the Fed Beige Book has ever mentioned mental health in the context of workers:

> Worries about employee mental health, burnout, safety, and vaccine mandates impacting company culture were mentioned.
Read 4 tweets
Daniel Zhao Profile picture
17 May
Research below shows fairly similar employment losses between parents & non-parents.

I believe the data & exercise, but I'm unsure how to square those results with survey evidence: Census Household Pulse Survey shows ~6.8 million Americans reporting disruption to childcare
And respondents self-report impact to their work availability:

If you focus just on reasons 4-6 which would be most likely to show up in employment data, that still seems like >1 million*, a much larger effect than above.

*Respondents can select multiple answers
When you ask Americans not working what their reasons are, a similar 6.75 million Americans report not working to care for children.
Read 5 tweets
Daniel Zhao Profile picture
1 Dec 20
Job openings fell -2.5% in Nov as the pandemic taps the brakes on hiring.

Job openings are still -10% vs. pre-crisis levels & the surging pandemic threatens further backsliding over the winter.

Latest @Glassdoor Job Market Report: glassdoor.com/research/job-m…

1/
38% of employers reduced job openings in Nov, up from 33% in Oct & the largest share since April.

Similarly, only 30% of employers increased hiring, the smallest share since May.

2/
The decline in job openings is unusually geographically dispersed:
-Plains states like South Dakota & Kansas that held up well earlier are now seeing large downturns
-42 states + DC saw MoM drops—the most uniform decline since May.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Daniel Zhao Profile picture
10 Nov 20
Job openings rose 1% in Sept to 6.4 million, according to #JOLTS.

This bump leaves us 9% down YoY w/ 1.95 unemployed Americans per job opening.

Open jobs have rebounded faster than after the GR, but have lost momentum in recent months.

Release: bls.gov/news.release/j…

1/ Image
The Jul surge in job openings in #JOLTS was unusually large. By contrast, @Glassdoor data has shown steadier progress since Jun.

Early data from @Glassdoor also anticipates continued progress in Oct.

2/ ImageImage
Part of the reason for the Jul surge and subsequent softness is bc of the 2020 Census delays which have shifted temp Census worker job openings to Jul instead of Apr.

This month's report confirms that the temporary effect has now largely waned.

#JOLTS 3/ Image
Read 5 tweets

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