Another drop for the @Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index in Feb, falling to 45.1%, down from 45.7% last month & 50.7% in Feb 2023, as recent layoffs in the headlines continue to drive anxiety among employees.

1/ Discussions of layoffs in @Glassdoor reviews have skyrocketed over the last 2 yrs in tech & media. In tech, they're actually higher than even the worst of Covid.

Despite measured layoffs remaining low by historical standards, anxiety about layoffs remains high.

2/

First #jobsreport of 2024! Wow, some surprisingly hot figures on the headline:
-Payroll growth beats at 353k
-Unemp at 3.7%
-Avg hourly earnings up to 4.5%

Lots of details to look at below the headlines

1/ (Sorry for delay, took some time to digest data)

Payrolls grew 353,000 in Jan, well past expectations. Dec & Jan both were much stronger than originally reported, though new seasonal trends around turn of year means the true underlying growth rate is probably a touch lower.

2/

Last #jobsreport of 2023 is solid though a mixed bag under the hood:
-Payrolls beat with 216,000 jobs added
-Unemployment flat at 3.7%, though with a tick down in LFP
-Avg hourly earnings ticks up to 4.1%

Charts to follow 1/ 216,000 jobs added to payrolls in December is a solid number, right about average for 2023.

Over 2023, there were 2.7 million jobs added to payrolls, down from 2021–2 when there were more "reopening jobs" coming back but still the highest pre-pandemic jobs growth since 2015

2/

Job market defying gravity in April:

*253,000 jobs added, above expectations though big negative revisions to last 2 months
*Unemp drops to 3.4%. Black unemp at record low 4.7%
*Wage growth jumps to 4.4% YoY

There's still heat in the job market #JobsReport 1/ Employers added 253,000 jobs, a slower pace than much of 2022, but Feb & Mar were downwardly revised by 149,000. Post-revisions, the start of the year was much slower than originally reported, but job gains remain healthy.

#JobsReport 2/

Job openings fell to 9,590,000 in March, down from 9,974,000 in Feb and the lowest since Apr 2021.

Falling job openings adds another data point in favor of a cooling job market.

#JOLTS 1/ Job openings fell most sharply in some of the service sectors that have driven much of the recent jobs recovery:

Transportation, warehousing & utilities: -144,000
Professional & business services: -135,000
Retail trade: -84,000
Health care & social assistance: -71,000

#JOLTS 2/

Very excited to be listening to Odd Lots live at #EconTwitterIRL Like the discussion of competing on science vs execution vs China. US can compete on advanced science but less so on manufacturing at low cost. China executes best where science is mature. Clean tech is an important case where US is still playing catch-up

#EconTwitterIRL

Last #jobsreport for 2022 out today shows in Dec:
*223,000 jobs added, down modestly from 256,000 in Nov
*Unemp down to 3.5% + LFP up 0.1pp
*Wage growth decelerates to 4.6%

Overall, a nice gift to end 2022 with measured slowing getting us closer to a soft landing.

1/ Payroll growth slowed to 223,000 in December 2022, roughly in line with expectations.

With the exception of July, jobs growth has been steadily and gradually declining through much of 2022.

#jobsreport 2/

The job market is slowing modestly, but is still running at a healthy clip:

Sep's #JobsReport shows 263,000 job gains, tying the slowest rate of jobs growth since April 2021.

The unemployment rate fell back to 3.5 percent after a surprise jump in Aug.

#jobsreport 1/ Payroll employment grew by 263,000 in September, tying the slowest rate of growth since April 2021. However, that's still well above pre-pandemic levels when jobs growth was averaging <200,000/month.

#jobsreport 2/

Wow, U.S. job openings dropped sharply to 10.1 million in Aug. That's a steep drop from 11.2 million in Jul and the largest one-month drop since the pandemic began.

While the level is still high, that's a more definitive sign of cooling in one of the Fed's watched metrics.

1/ The drop in job openings and jump in unemployment in Aug pushed the ratio of openings to unemployed workers to 1.67, down from 1.97 in Jul.

There are issues w/ this measure, but the Fed refers to it often, so the slowing here is notable.

#JOLTS 2/

The job market is falling back to trend:
Aug's #JobsReport shows 315,000 job gains, slower & more consistent w/ softer spring gains, moderating after Jul's blockbuster report

The unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, but on the back of strong labor force gains. Job gains fell back to trend in August, w/ 315,000 jobs added, more in line with the slower job gains from the spring.

July's blockbuster job gains seem like a positive fluke, though they largely held up to revisions, revised down only 2,000.

#jobsreport 2/

June's #JobsReport shows the job market holding steady despite recession fears. Job gains slowed modestly to 372,000, beating expectations, and unemployment held flat at 3.6% for the 4th month in a row.

This is still a hot labor market even if the broader economy is cooling.

1/ Job gains cooled only modestly in June, beating expectations. Job gains overall seem to have shifted into a lower gear in the last few months, but recall that in 2019's hot job market, monthly job gains averaged 164k. This is still a healthy clip.

#jobsreport 2/

U.S. job openings dropped to 11.3 million in May, showing signs of cooling even though demand still remains well above pre-recession levels. Even if the job market is cooling from white hot to red hot, it's still hot.

#JOLTS 1/ The drop in job openings was primarily driven by professional & business services (-325,000) and #manufacturing (-208,000). Prof & biz services openings dropped 14% MoM as hiring freezes crimped demand & pushed it back to late-2021 levels.

#JOLTS 2/

Today's January #JobsReport is significantly stronger than expected. Job gains totaled 467,000 even as Omicron drove record high COVID cases. Unemployment ticked up to 4.0%

Huge payroll revisions too: Dec up to 510,000 from 199,000. Nov up to 647,000 from 249,000.

1/ Charts will be slow this morning, but 2 more things:
-Labor force participation ticks up to 62.2%
-Weekly hours were down 0.2 hrs, employee absence due to illness up to 3.6 million, a new record high; showing Omicron had impact even if it reverse slow jobs growth

#JobsReport 2/

Job openings rose to 10.9 million in Dec, again approaching record highs despite the surging Omicron wave.

Even though Omicron is pushing COVID to record levels, employers are hoping that the wave will be temporary & are keeping jobs open for when the wave recedes.

#JOLTS 1/ The increase in job openings in Dec was concentrated in accommodation & food services, despite the impact of Omicron. Job openings in the sector are lower than the summer peak of 1.67 million, but still up significantly over the pre-pandemic record of 1.02 million.

#JOLTS 2/

Job openings fell to 10.6 million in Nov, still near record highs but lower as the resurgent Delta wave in Nov crimped demand for workers, even before the impacts of Delta are fully felt.

#JOLTS 1/ The slowdown was primarily in accommodation & food services (no surprise worker demand there falls as the pandemic worsens). Job openings in accommodation & food services are at their lowest since April 2021, though they're still up 62% over the course of the pandemic.

#JOLTS 2/

Job openings rebounded to 11 million in Oct, just barely below record highs.

Job openings are rising again after the peak of the Delta slowdown in Sep and as hiring in leisure & hospitality picks up again.

#JOLTS 1/ The increase in job openings was concentrated in accommodation & food services as employers felt more comfortable hiring with the Delta wave starting to wane in Oct. Remains to be seen whether that will continue in Nov given the slow #jobsreport we saw last Fri.

#JOLTS 2/

New BLS state #JOLTS data today! Playing around with it:
-Hires per job opening don't seem to be improving in August
-Gap seems roughly stable btwn states withdrawing early from UI vs those not
-UI withdrawal proponents would want to see evidence of hires/opening ⬆️ , gap ⬆️ Consistent w/ the rough comparisons in state employment data released this morning as well. See @bencasselman's thread for findings & appropriate caveats (most of which apply to the JOLTS data too):

https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1451562508360237071?s=20

The answer is yes. The Oct '21 Beige Book is the 1st time "mental health" for workers has been discussed

Mental health has only been mentioned 6 times previously. The 1st mention was in Apr 2020 & all prior mentions were about demand for mental health services, not worker health

https://twitter.com/DanielBZhao/status/1450910555418550272

And this pairs nicely with new research from @LaurenTEcon out today finding employee discussions of mental health & burnout on @Glassdoor have more than doubled since the pandemic began:

https://twitter.com/LaurenTEcon/status/1451224358815477766?s=20

Initial UI claims SA fell slightly last week to 290K, hitting another new intra-crisis low.

Initial claims are continuing to decline as the Delta wave recedes. Delta is on the downswing but cases are still elevated, suggesting further room for improvement.

#joblessclaims 1/ Initial PUA claims have dropped to 2K as backdated claims fade post-expiration.

The last day to file a backdated claim was 10/6 in CA, which accounted for >2/3rd of new PUA claims in the U.S. 2 wks ago.

#joblessclaims 2/

The expiration of federal unemployment benefits was mentioned 7 times in the the Fed's October Beige Book today:

3: little to no impact
2: modest increase in applicants/workers
1: expects future increases
1: concern about negative impact on household finances of recipients Vaccine mandates were also mentioned in 6 sections. Discussions mostly about turnover, though more forward-looking as mandates start to take effect.

2: Increased turnover
2: Turnover, but less than expected
2: Concern about future turnover

Research below shows fairly similar employment losses between parents & non-parents.

I believe the data & exercise, but I'm unsure how to square those results with survey evidence: Census Household Pulse Survey shows ~6.8 million Americans reporting disruption to childcare

https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1394284652983115778

And respondents self-report impact to their work availability:

If you focus just on reasons 4-6 which would be most likely to show up in employment data, that still seems like >1 million*, a much larger effect than above.

*Respondents can select multiple answers