Are we entering a new Cold War with China (and Russia)? Yes and no. Can we learn from the Cold War to develop smart strategies to contain & engage China & Russia? Yes & no. Is it complicated? Yes! THREAD 1/.
" The Cold War analogy distorts, more than illuminates, dynamics in US-China relations today." 2/
Advocates for a new Cold War w/ China also underplay the costs & mistakes of the actual Cold War—a tragic era that resulted in millions of deaths, including tens of thousands of Americans, support for autocracies in both the East and West & billions of dollars spent inefficiently
"This new hegemonic paradigm also forgets (whether consciously or unconsciously) that containment was not a single, consistent US strategy but stretched to mean everything from détente with Kremlin communists to rolling back communism around the developing world." 4/
"In addition, many challenges from China’s rise today have little in common with the Cold War and therefore require creative strategic thinking, not simply dusting off the Cold War playbook." 5/
"At the same time, analytically, some dimensions of US-China relations today do resemble the Cold War." 6/
"And prescriptively, some lessons from the Cold War—regarding peace through strength, the importance of allies, ideological promotion, crisis management, crisis prevention, and cooperation on transnational issues—are worth remembering and emulating." 7/
"Many challenges require creative strategic thinking, not simply dusting off the Cold War playbook." 8/
"Instead of continuing a tedious definitional debate, analysts and policymakers should compare and contrast the old Cold War with US-China relations today to reveal with specificity successes from the Cold War to be emulated for managing our growing rivalry with China ..." 9/
"... and mistakes to be avoided, as well as identifying dimensions in US-China relations requiring the articulation and implementation of completely different strategies from the last century." 10/
"This type of analysis is complicated. But oversimplification is the enemy of smart, effective US policymaking regarding this most consequential challenge of the 21st century." 11/
"Defining today's great-power competition mechanically as another Cold War risks misdiagnosing the nature of the threat, misunderstanding the nature of competition, and thereby providing the wrong prescriptions for decisionmakers." 12/
"But ignoring parallels between US-Soviet relations in the last century and US-China relations in this century risks repeating some of our worst mistakes and not learning from some of our most successful achievements." 13/
For the details, read "Cold War Lessons and Fallacies for US-China Relations Today" in @TWQgw . 14/ END TRHEAD. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
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