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21 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
I believe this may be a complete dataset for studies looking specifically at delta variant, comparing the rates at which people contract delta from vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.

Am I missing any studies?
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34473681/
Criteria: 1) specifically analyzes delta variant 2) looks at "secondary attack rate" or "secondary transmission" from index cases and 3) separates the index cases into those vaccinated or unvaccinated.

If you know of any studies I'm missing that meet these criteria please post.
Avi adds this one:

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
After doing my best to skim any more from reading through a broader search with mostly irrelevant titles and keyword searching any papers that seemed ambiguous, I found only one more:

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

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More from @ChrisMasterjohn

Chris Masterjohn Profile picture
21 Oct
I made an appointment for a DEXA body composition scan with @Fitnescity_Labs in Connecticut since it is illegal to use DEXA for this purpose in New York.

Their partner, Alternity, tried to subject me to a discriminatory and completely unscientific COVID policy.
They never once asked me if I had COVID. But they want a negative test 72 hours before the appointment *because* I am unvaccinated.

I stand against this discrimination.

I stand against this totally unscientific policy.

I will never give either company my money.
To begin with, I have, according to the published data, 13 times the immunity of someone who got the Pfizer vaccine in July.

On what basis do I, but not they, need a negative test?
Read 6 tweets
Chris Masterjohn Profile picture
20 Oct
Sunday Jimmy Levy, singer of “The Matrix” is the star of our rally beginning 12PM at Commodore Barry Park on Flushing Ave and Navy St, Brooklyn, as we break the matrix with him.
We then march to the Barclays Center in support of Kyrie Irving, who won’t be able to play in the 4PM game against the hornets because of the mandate.
Jimmy played “The Matrix” at our September 27 rally, and the video for his new song with Hi-Rez, “This is a War,” features copious footage from our protest.
Read 8 tweets
Chris Masterjohn Profile picture
20 Oct
In my last few workouts it looked like I was having a lot of trouble scoring a 128 lb 3x3 on the strict (no hips, no jerk) overhead press.
Nope! Pushed it up this morning!

Music helped. My classics for pushing a bar up when I know it will be difficult are Breathin and Troublesome. Recently I added the other two. Today I got my third 128x3 set up to Troublesome. Gotta blast it at full volume in my ears.
I also take a few quick deep breaths while psyching myself up at the bar, then after getting under it, then after taking it out of the rack, and again in between each rep, resting briefly at the top of the press.
Read 5 tweets
Chris Masterjohn Profile picture
3 Oct
I haven't read the other trials yet, but between the 6-month results of Modern and Pfizer we have, summed together, 31 vaccine deaths and 30 placebo deaths.

How many do we need to get statistical power for an all-cause mortality effect? Can we do that if we sum all the trials?
This has to keep in mind that the total mortality in the US was said to increase 17% last year, with 69% of that due to COVID, and the trials while primary prevention are done in high risk populations due either to age or comorbidities.
Population data predicts an 11% excess risk of death that the vaccines should wipe out 98% of.

Maybe @AviBittMD can do a power calculation? If not I'll try one when I actually get around to safety and efficacy.
Read 4 tweets
Chris Masterjohn Profile picture
3 Oct
In more neutral news, for Moderna there was no difference in clotting events (47 vaccine, 43 placebo, 0.3% of each group), there was no myocarditis at all, pericarditis occurred in two people in each group, and there was no difference in deaths.

16 people died in each group.
And in more COVID-related news, vaccine stayed at least 90% effective against symptomatic infection across the 5.8 months, 98.2% against severe COVID, and 63% against asymptomatic infection.
Limitations include that they do not report total suspected COVID. In the FDA review of Pfizer data, this was 20 times more common than COVID and the vaccine only reduced it 12%.

Similarly they do not report serious COVID-like illness.

16 deaths in each group.
Read 5 tweets
Chris Masterjohn Profile picture
3 Oct
Plot twist: Moderna is 63% effective against asymptomatic transmission, making it 78% as powerful as iota-carrageenan nasal spray!

nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NE…
I was starting to suspect PCR positivity is reduced based on a single shot 3x reducing it in their interim results, and that is consistent with Peter Doshi's criticism that the FDA's review of Pfizer vaccine shows 20-fold excess of "suspected COVID" over confirmed.
That latter point suggests that the vaccines are more powerful at reducing PCR positivity than symptoms.

This doesn't settle transmission for me though. I have a lot of work to do.
Read 6 tweets

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