Thread by @DCLBlogger

What’s going to happen to NFTs if ETH and BTC Moon?

Is $10K ETH or $100K BTC good or bad for the NFT industry?

Let’s explore multiple scenarios,

1/

2/ I was fortunate enough to find NFTs in 2018, when the whole crypto market was “crashing”.

2018-2021 has been a roller coaster, the below is what I’ve seen.

Just my thoughts NFA*. The below is all in terms of ETH, (crypto), not fiat.

3/ Q4 this year, (now), much of the industry is expecting BTC and ETH, subsequently the rest of the alt coin market to hit all time highs.

BTC to $100k+
ETH to $10k+

If this plays out, I expect a shake up in the NFT market in the short term.

4/ Key word. Short Term.

NFT projects where people were mostly in it flip will probably take a hit. (And may possibly not recover).


NFT projects where community/team are strong, continue to build can retain interest may take a hit but be ok long term.

5/ Currently, there’s a big speculator crowd around the NFT market.

Many new investors who will freak out when prices drop which creates more selling.

But good projects will have a good baseline collector/user base that won’t care and thus prices won’t fall as much imo.

6/ What about Art?

Art is interesting as it sees big money flow in.

Who pays this? True collectors that want to hold and can mostly afford to. Hence why the 1/1 Art industry probably won’t see much of a drop if any.

Ofcourse, that’s not all Art, depends on the collector base.

7/ Historic projects that haven’t yet distributed well in the hands of true collectors/hodlers will also take a hit imo.

Basically the stronger the core user base/collector base, the less of a drop prices will take.

8/ Ok, much of the above is short term as people jump ship to try ride the crypto train.

IF we see a crypto bull run last a few months+ then the same thing that happened at the start of this year will happen eventually imo.

Euphoria. (for alts and NFTs).

9/ I've noticed multiple times, NFTs have followed the same sentiment as alt coins.

At least for now since much of the market is speculative.

Just like alts take a hit when BTC or ETH reach ATH's, so will NFTs imo, but the good alts long term should do well. Just like NFTs.

10/ Also when portfolios 3-10x’s, so do peoples confidence to spend.

The NFT space has ALWAYS been relevant as media just LOVE writing about this space.

Big sales, big brands, big celebs, that momentum multiplies as people get wealthier, NFTs will soar imo.

11/ But not any NFTs.

NFTs where people continued building and had depth.

12/ This is what happened in 2018-2020.

Many projects couldn’t retain their user so gave up/fizzled out. Others continued and thus we have Decentraland, Cryptovoxels, Axie Infinity, etc today.

Some got classed as “historic” and now hold their place and price as such.

13/ This is also where “buy what you love” comes into play.

If you love buying/collecting/using this NFT, then others will too and it’s validation there’s depth to this project.

14/ I also think the NFT industry as a whole will evolve to more polished games, virtual worlds, experiences, avatars, etc.

And maybe even new industries. This space will keep pushing 100mph as usual and so low effort projects will wash out.

15/ This is where portfolio positioning comes into play.

And why most experienced crypto investors never go “all in”, because as dynamics change you need to readjust.

Have some NFTs, some crypto, some “blue chip”, some high risk, etc. So you can grow with the industry.

16/ Not get stuck into a corner with no moves left because you went all in on an NFT project due to pure Crypto Twitter FOMO.

Hope that’s not the case for many.

17/ The only thing I know for sure about this space is many people here are curious and ambitious so they keep building.

And so I stick with those.

18/ To summarise. (If crypto moons). Short Term.

- Low effort NFT projects will take a short term, possible forever hit.

- Mid-High Effort NFT projects will take a hit but shine long term.

19/ Long Term.

- Industry will evolve to bring new opportunities
- 1/1 Art and super rare/iconic NFTs have a high chance of sustaining/growing
- More education brings more participants
- More infrastructure growth makes it easier, (coinbase, less gas, etc)

20/ 2018 was a very slow period for NFTs but those that stuck around made fortunes today.

It's great to get rich quick but the longer you stick around here, the more knowledge you gain and opportunity you see.

21/ After all this crypto euphoria, if there is a big crash, (as many are predicting and we've seen before), then that's a whole new conversation.

Then I think all of the above will still play out but recovery will be much slower.

22/ The future is always unknown.

We never know how it plays out, the best we can do is cover ourselves for all scenarios and take risks when we can afford to lose some imo.

Whether we go up or down, if you stick around long term - you'll achieve what you came for.

23/ These are just my thoughts. Let’s see how it plays out. (None of the above is financial advice).

I could be COMPLETELY WRONG.

Whatever happens we’ll all be smarter which only allows us to make better decisions in the future.

And the future is FULL of opportunity. 🔥