1. As a whittled down reconciliation bill is in final negotiations, it's worth asking "what's the deal with Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema?" An urgent question not now but for the forseeable future since they'll set the limits on what Democrats can do. 
2. Manchin is legible in way that Sinema isn't: he's just a plain old conservative Democrat, willing to horse trade to get pork in his state in exchange for other things he doesn't like. Since his vote is necessary he has leverage and is using it with frustrating ferocity
3. Sinema puzzles people more because she hasn't been upfront about demands and a lot of what she does makes sense politically (evidenced by her sinking poll numbers). Combined with her colorful background (Green Party) & attire, she's presented as a freak. That's a mistake
4. The urge to pathologize Sinema is understandable but it's worth paying attention to the incentive structures & systems that have made her bizarre actions logical to her. She's had a pretty meteoric rise & has real ambition, knowing the system with an outsider's cynicism.
5. The best explanation for Sinema I've seen is that she's modelling herself after John McCain, an easy mistake on her part given how much McCain was lionized by centrists & Washington types. Of course, it's a bet that will likely fail, but it's a sign of ambition.
6. I spent some time talking with the astute @ryanlcooper about what makes Sinema tick here: jeetheer.substack.com/p/podcast-manc…
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