The 7-day rolling rates for 10-14s in the South West continue to rise alarmingly. In Cheltenham the rate has now reached 6900/100k (for comparison, Kettering, which previously had the highest ever rate for this age group, peaked at 6304/100k). Here's the graph since 1 September.
And for context, if we zoom out over the last year, the graph looks like this. I guess it's a relief that the half-term break is here, but I hope the holidays won't involve lots of socialising with extended family ...
In case you're wondering, having overtaken Kettering, Cheltenham moves into third place in the highest rolling rates in any year group. Second place is held by Nottingham 15-19 year olds (more specifically, 18 year olds in university halls at the start of term last year).
I suspect Cheltenham will overtake Nottingham soon. But half-term means it probably won't be able to take the top spot, currently occupied by Newcastle 15-19s (another freshers week fiasco). The rate there reached 8137/100k. Hard to beat, perhaps, but DfE won't give up easily.
Cheltenham's 10-14 year olds have moved past Nottingham's 15-19s into 2nd highest age-specific rolling rate we've ever seen in England. And at 7714 per 100k (1 in 13 tested positive last week), it's looking like maybe they'll make it to the #1 spot in the next day or two.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
This poll is one part of a larger research project that @berglund_oscar, @SamuelFinnerty and I are working on about the impact of disruptive protest on public attitudes and policy. bristol.ac.uk/news/2023/july…
The project involves polling, interviews, focus groups & experimental surveys. We’ll have more to report later in the year, but one aspect of the results of the poll that's particularly noteworthy concerns people’s opinion about the punishment of nonviolent disruptive protesters.
The poll was conducted by @YouGov on 19/20 July. Respondents were asked which punishment they thought most appropriate for someone who participated in a nonviolent but disruptive protest such as blocking a road. Options ranged from no punishment to more than 1 year in prison.
The arrest of charity volunteers raises serious questions about the role (& perhaps collusion) of rightwing media, police & politicians in the demonisation of protesters. This thread will report my attempts to piece together what happened & what it means. dailymail.co.uk/news/royals/ar…
The story starts with the Mail on Sunday, which ran a front page story on 23 April warning its readers about a a "vile plot" by "extremists" to use rape alarms to scare horses on Coronation Day. "Senior security sources" worried it could cause "serious injuries or even deaths".
The article initially attributes the plot to "Militant protesters". It then mentions organisers' fear of disruption by Just Stop Oil & reminds readers of other disruptive JSO actions. It also mentions Republic. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
But although you didn't hear about the tens of thousands of people protesting in London, chances are that you did hear about that one guy who jumped on a #snooker table in Sheffield.
None of this remotely surprising. It's yet another example of the #ActivistsDilemma in action.
When non-activists criticise groups like JSO for engaging in disruptive protest it's common for them to say they don't mind protest if it's done in a way that doesn't affect people going about their business. That's what activists have been doing this weekend. It doesn't work.
I don't want to write a long thread on this, but I do feel compelled to point out a pretty fundamental problem with this survey. Michael Mann is a great climate scientist, but psychology is clearly not his field of expertise.
In this survey he asked participants whether disruptive actions decrease or increase their support for efforts to address climate change (or have no effect).
Questions like this are asking people to introspect - to examine the inner workings of their own minds. That's a problem, because we don't have access to those inner workings. You might as well ask people to introspect on how they recognise faces or how their lungs work.
I was one of the XR scientists arrested yesterday. I'll say more about that in due course but more urgently, one of us - Emma, who was on the front page of the @Guardian today - has not been released. The UK govt is making scientists into political prisoners. @damiengayle
I'm told that Emma is now protesting her continued imprisonment by refusing to eat or drink.
By way of context, IPCC scientists say "it's now or never" to turn the emissions curve downward. When will this government start taking climate science seriously?
Thanks so much to all those asking how they can help Emma. There will be a vigil outside Charing Cross police station tomorrow morning. I'm not exactly sure what time but will post it when I find out. Sadly I won't be able to attend as I'm now banned from London (yes, really).