Thread by @AndrewPRLevi

It’s 10 seconds to midnight in the UK.

According to @BulletinAtomic, custodians of the Doomsday Clock, globally it’s 100 seconds.

Closer than 1958, with nuclear annihilation a constant danger.

But on top of that, climate & pandemic, the UK has added self-destruction.

A 🧵/1.

It isn’t that the UK’s the only country to have descended into an existential political crisis. Others have, or are on the brink, or have dragged themselves back from it. /2.

The erosion of relative US power - though still massive & bigger than ever in absolute terms - is disrupting & destabilising the world, coarsening politics, damaging security & societies.

Even seen against that background, however, the UK’s authoritarian lurch is dramatic. /3.

Particularly so for those living in England, Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.

But also for close neighbours (the whole EU/EEA). Fellow NATO & G7 members. And the UN (where the UK has disproportionate power with its Security Council veto). /4.

Without a political counterpunch of exceptional force, soon, it’s hard to see anything approximating to a liberal democracy surviving. At UK level, at least.

It’ll be the Erdogan & Orban Show. With a dose of added Putin. And a sprinkling of Berlusconi, for the fun factor. /5.

A situation which will drive the UK to breakup. With or without Westminster consent. Who could blame Scotland, after all? Or NI? Even Wales may jump … In the face of England losing its collective mind, what’s the alternative? Check in with those who experienced Milosevic … /6.

England itself won’t survive such a disintegration. Any more than Serbia did. But it’ll be worse for England. On top Yugoslavia’s collapse Serbia “only” lost Kosovo & union with Montenegro. England is deeply fractured, its national identity & unity far more myth than reality. /7.

The security, prosperity & well-being of the UK are further damaged, daily, by the Johnson Brexit. A political approach only peripherally driven by “Europe”. /8.

The real driver (EU-bashing a convenient vector) has been the acquisition & retention of power by a small faction. Exploiting deep-seated authoritarianism among a substantial minority of the population. Heightened by the uncertainties highlighted in tweet 3, above. /9.

The direct damage from rupture with the EU is huge & will only get worse, to be sure. But it isn’t the primary purpose of the radical takeover of the UK government. It is, however, useful: creating the conditions for further (entirely justified) anxiety. /10.

Which further strengthens the commitment of the core authoritarian minority.

(It’s worth pausing to reflect that the exceptionally powerful link between voters’ authoritarianism & support for Brexit has been well documented, but largely ignored, for over five years). /11.

The question is, what does ever increasing chaos do to the other approx 2/3 of the population? Including 10-15% of “soft authoritarians” - swing voters, in this context.

And to politicians who know what’s right, but currently duck their duty to stand up for it? /12.

I sketched the parliamentary landscape in the attached 🧵.

Mainly looking at the Conservative Party.

But also the need for other parties explicitly to recognise that the political battle is now between democracy & not. /13.

https://twitter.com/andrewprlevi/status/1451319199922626568

It’s no longer about different “left” or “right” flavours within a liberal, democratic consensus. /14.

The UK’s Doomsday Clock is signalling the end.

Of democracy & decency.

Of security & prosperity.

Of respect & influence in the world.

Of the UK as a political entity. /15.

Breakaway nations/regions may be able to save themselves.

But don’t bet on it.

The collateral damage across GB & NI of the implosion likely from descent into radical, authoritarian nationalism will be huge.

Unilateral declarations of independence offer limited protection. /16.

The last line of defence is several dozen MPs on the government benches.

And the vast majority of opposition MPs.

All of whom know that what’s happening has to be stopped.

Fast.

And all of whom know that their combined votes can stop it.

Now. /17.

What price party loyalty, prime ministerial patronage, climbing the greasy, political pole - against doing the right thing?

In a national, existential crisis.

Before midnight strikes. /18. End

P.S. The libertarian extremism which underpins much of the current political revolution in the UK, & which I don’t explicitly examine above, isn’t at odds with the authoritarianism, it’s an expression of it👇 /(i)

https://twitter.com/simonubsdell/status/1451893529446395906

The particular English version of authoritarianism/libertarianism shredding post-imperial Britain has deeper origins, which shaped the characters of the revolutionaries still trying to force it through against a majority of the population/ MPs👇/(ii). End

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