Thread by @AndrewPRLevi

Much talk of PR being better than the unfair UK system.

Others say current arrangements deliver clear majorities & powerful govt.

But, even if you like @BorisJohnson, do we really have the latter?

And: how close are we to midnight?

Spoilers. No. And: 10 seconds.

A🧵/1.

Political parties, especially the main ones, are all coalitions of some kind. We know that.

But what’s the reality in the current governing party & how is it affecting govt behaviour?

In short: quite extraordinary; &, a lot. /2.

With a majority of 80 you’d expect Mr Johnson, despite his somewhat erratic personality, to feel comfortable, appear decisive &, within limits, be effective.

He’s none of those things.

Deeply ill at ease. Dithering. And failing on every significant metric. /3.

There’s a temptation, among many, to put all this down either to deep personal incompetence, on the one hand, or a grand plan so to disrupt & destabilise the country as to create the conditions for the dismantlement of democracy & an authoritarian takeover, on the other. /4.

That Mr Johnson has a disturbing weakness for authoritarianism, certainly once in power himself, disguised by a patchy, liberal veneer, is hardly news. Nor is the fact he lacks the capacity & inclination to deal with the complexity which goes with his job. /5.

So, concerns about him are justified. And it’s hard to dispute that the UK is in a precarious, dangerous position.

But let’s understand Mr Johnson’s position a bit better. /6.

He leads a minority government.

With a confidence & supply arrangement with the English Union of Nationalist Radicals.

Never heard of them? It’s the title I give them.

The EUNR is centred on the “European Research Group” & has more MPs than the govt’s 80 seat “majority”. /7.

The EUNR is so powerful - the govt can’t survive without it - that it has even substantially infiltrated the Cabinet.

On the other hand, by some counts, it doesn’t yet have a cabinet majority. And it’s quite fractious. /8.

This provides the PM & those most loyal to him (Carrie & … um) some room for manoeuvre. But unreliably & fleetingly.

Mr Johnson & Lord Frost know - always have - that the EUNR’s demands (causing Brexit disaster, bodies piling high, … ) are ruinous for the country. /9.

But they also always knew, as long as they went along with the EUNR most of the time, the EUNR would place them in power & keep them there. Assuming the constituency-based electoral system could be gamed to achieve a large enough majority for EUNR-compatible policies. /10.

No confidence & supply agreement has been published. Nor should we expect one to be. The outline is clear enough, though. And we’re seeing the consequences in daily damage to the UK’s security, prosperity & well-being. Alongside startling levels of corruption & graft. /11.

And a broad assault on foundations of our constitutional order.

Which all leads to the question, even for someone of Mr Johnson’s … characteristics, mightn’t there be an alternative, preferable coalition? /12.

The legacy of which wouldn’t be the pre-ordained historical ignominy - including UK pariah status, not least in failure to address the collapse of the Earth’s life support systems - of shacking-up with the EUNR. /13.

Well, yes. There would be an alternative. And given the stakes, everyone involved - that includes Labour, the SNP, & the LibDems - ought to to doing everything they possibly can to bring it about. /14.

Some talk of a “National Government”. Such labels aren’t helpful. They’re controversial & the historical analogies are imprecise. True, the Churchill-led wartime coalition ensured the complete marginalisation of extremists who would have sold out to the darkest of forces. /15.

Our “enemy”, though helped from outside the country, is within. That’s where the main battle has to be fought & won. It can’t be won as long as the EUNR have a stranglehold over the govt. /16.

Looking through one end of the telescope, the EUNR props up the govt as long as the govt accedes to its main demands. Such as a no-deal Brexit (remember: Brexit is an oven-ready turkey, for sure, but it’s very far from “done”). /17.

Looking through the other, there are 145 Conservative MPs who are on record as having voted Remain.

If that number - or even less than half the amount - crossed the floor & voted against EUNR policies, everything would change. /18.

The govt would fall. A new one would be needed under a leader who could command a majority. With three years until the next election, such a govt would have the constitutional power & the time to reverse the most disastrous of the EUNR impositions. /19.

With the EUNR economic sanctions on the UK removed, the new govt could use its majority safely & rapidly to implement a massive, multi-year recovery programme, funded by high deficit spending, but with very low inflation risk. /20.

And to regroup for the biggest, most consequential political fight of the UK’s post war history, perhaps much longer.

There’s no point pretending.

It’s now authoritarians (at best) against democrats.

Splitting the vote for the latter is no longer “just politics”. /21.

It isn’t even playing with fire. It’s far worse. It’s careless, reckless, selfish participation in the destruction, across Great Britain & NI, of all any decent democrat holds dear. /22.

There isn’t time to wait & play subtle, or not so subtle, political games.

For now, pressure, implied & explicit, from the USA is holding the EUNR back. Any weakening of that - for example Republican control of the Senate next year - could signal the end. /23.

Unless, in the UK, we’ve already marginalised our own era’s extremists, as Churchill & Attlee managed in 1940.

Then we have a chance to stand & fight.

And protect our democracy & society from the forces ranged against it. Right now, they’re in the ascendant. /24.

Conservative democrats: will you stand up & be counted?

Labour: will you accept it’s now about the future of democracy, not an outright Labour majority on a minority of the vote? And that it’s hugely urgent?

LibDems: will you set aside differences & back a new govt? /25.

SNP: you’ll get an independence referendum. You might or might not win it. But first, the EUNR & their collaborators have to be defeated at UK level & the economy & society rescued, stabilised & strengthened. /26.

Will you work with the others to make that happen?

Other parties & leaders: will you?

Listen carefully, everyone.

The clock’s ticking. /27. End

P.S. Responding to a few comments received:

- I realise the outcome I describe seems far from any likely, current reality;

- it’s precisely because of that, & because I see no alternative to resolving a situation of acute danger for the country, that I say it. Someone must! /1.

- if Parliament doesn’t act now, we’re faced with:

(a) waiting until the next election, with the potential for incalculable harm in the meantime, & no guarantee of an election worth the name at the end of it;

or /2.

(b) extra-parliamentary action. That would have to be on such a scale & of such a nature that very bad outcomes would be just as likely as good ones; /3.

- the argument in my 🧵doesn’t advocate “rejoin”. It uses the number of “Remain” Conservative MPs as a proxy for the pool of MPs on the govt benches who might decide (soon enough) that country is more important than party. /4.

It also, to be sure, points out that U-turns on key aspects of the Johnson Brexit are vital if the UK’s security, prosperity & well-being are to be protected. /5.

In particular, no adequate (or indeed any worthwhile) economic recovery plan is possible while the effective economic sanctions caused by the Johnson Brexit are in place. /6. End

P.P.S. My reference in the above 🧵 to the ERG has prompted a question or two.

To be clear:

(a) anyone thinking the ERG’s purpose is to do with “Europe” misunderstands the group;

(b) I refer to what I call the “EUNR” being “centred” on the ERG. I’m not saying it *is* the ERG.