Thread by @HZiauddeen

🧵About these tweets by Phil Magness: why is he talking about lockdowns?

TL; DR: Assume there's a purpose.

Earlier today, Phil QTed a poor article he wrote this week last year about the 'strawman' of lockdown and followed it up with a list of the people in the article.
(1/24)

https://twitter.com/PhilWMagness/status/1451949709795504131

I was a bit surprised to find myself on this list along with these big shots @gregggonsalves @dgurdasani1 @gorskon @BillHanage @CT_Bergstrom @GidMK @angie_rasmussen.
Finally! A very weird sort of recognition!
Then I realised I had been in the original article.
(2/24)

Why retweet this now? I get it's about a year to the date but you only usually mark the anniversaries of things that are significant or good.
The article is on the website of AIER, which is closely linked with the GBD, and are pro-herd immunity & increasingly anti-vax.
(3/24)

It is interesting that this has resurfaced today. This week, the UK media and govt have finally acknowledged that the COVID situation is dire indeed. The govt are not going to do anything about it. While the media is talking about it, they keep bringing up lockdowns.
(4/24)

Some of the scientists who have been calling for plan to manage the pandemic for well over a year have been invited back on media this week and presented with the assertion that they (the scientists) are calling for a lockdown. They are not.
(5/24)

What they are calling for, are the same things again- mask mandates (with good quality masks), make schools safer, contact tracing, etc. But the conversation is brought back to lockdowns and their harms and the scientist has to defend against an assertion they never made.
(6/24)

I would assume that all this is deliberate.
The UK's Nov 2020 and Jan 2021 lockdowns were necessitated by the govt's catastrophic mismanagement of the pandemic. The govt managed lockdowns terribly. This hurt people but saved many from dying and more from falling ill.
(7/24)

A very successful disinformation strategy of the GBD & co was:
1. Lockdowns were far more harmful than COVID
2. Lockdowns were caused by caused by those who had repeatedly called for a proper pandemic strategy (despite having zero power & trying hard to avoid lockdowns)
(8/24)

So successful was this strategy that this narrative still holds. Even people who acknowledge that lockdowns happened because of the govt's failures, still maintain that they are unacceptable no matter what the circumstances i.e. even if loads of people die.
(9/24)

The best way to avoid lockdowns is to control the pandemic. If you don't, you may be forced to go into lockdown because otherwise you will risk mass deaths and the collapse of healthcare and other vital systems i.e. a public health emergency.
(10/24)

This is where we are headed & it does not seem like our govt cares or may even be planning for this.

So why the talk of lockdowns?
My hypothesis: the govt & the media that support them are building the case & cover for not doing anything.
(11/24)

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1437024094915072009?s=20

When they are asked why they are not introducing mass mandates, making schools safer, etc, they pivot to talking about lockdowns and their harms. This moves the conversation to something they know is unpopular, unpalatable and will take over the conversation.
(12/24)

It's a good strategy. They can present themselves as the good guys who are protecting the public from the harms of lockdown.
The other part of the strategy is to reinforce who the villains calling for lockdown are. Thus these interviews that pivot to lockdowns.
(13/24)

This means the govt can continue to do nothing except stand firm against the march of the lockdown strawmen.
However not doing anything will mean that the COVID situation will get so bad that there will be no other option but to lockdown as a public health emergency.
(14/24)

However the work they will have successfully done till this point will have made lockdowns into such a monster that they can justify not acting arguing that they are acting in the public's best interests. And many in the public may agree.
(15/24)

Even if forced to act, they will have enough of a case to act as late as possible, limit the effectiveness of the lockdown, and lift it as quickly as possible (the last will also provide a justification for not supporting people)
It'll be carnage.
(16/24)

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1449730318995443719?s=20

This is a hypothesis but I'd argue a fairly plausible one. If you'd like to check for yourself, I would suggest this approach.
The govt has acknowledged that the COVID sitsituation is bad and will get worse.
Look and see what you can see them doing to counter this.
(17/24)

Now look and see what they are doing to avoid acting or explain why they are not acting.

IMPORTANT: neither this issue nor this strategy are limited to the UK. Similar coordinated plans are likely being launched in other countries and globally.
(18/24)

Which is where I suspect Phil's article fits in and he's not the only one talking about stuff like this.

This is a global pandemic in more ways than one.
(19/24)

The countries that fail to control it (e.g. the UK), make things worse for everyone.The rise of new variants threatens the safety of countries that have successfully managed so far, as soon as they open up travel, look at Singapore.
(20/24)

So other countries may be forced to go into lockdown and reintroduce travel restrictions. This will not suit those in power and with tired & frustrated populations and govts under pressure from business interests, it is easier to foment discontent.
(21/24)

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1439730298930012161?s=20

We'll likely see a lot of harms of lockdown articles & media coverage happening.
For scientists and journalists who care, I'd urge you to be careful about the interviews and conversations you are being drawn into and think about why you are being asked to be there.
(22/24)

For scientists, you have made your views widely known and we know this is no longer a lack of information problem but definitely a mis/disinformation problem and you may be invited along for the mis/disinformation to be repeated and reinforced under the guise of balance.
(23/24)

For all of us, these strategies are meant to deepen confusion & divisions & create conflict. To get us fighting against our own shared interests & to stop us thinking about the lives and health of our children and our most vulnerable.

Be mindful of what is being done.
(24/24)