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Phil Kerpen Profile picture
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24 Oct, 5 tweets, 3 min read
This was either a political stunt, or an object lesson in how mask mania increases risky behavior.

Outdoors is by definition 100% ventilated, and massively -- nearly infinitely -- lower risk than masked indoor social interaction. Image
Stunt it is. Why in the world is the @WiltonSimpson aiding and abetting this???
"old pictures"😂
flsenate.gov/media/VideoPla… ImageImageImageImage
Media, as expected, failing this ethics test spectacularly.
Same exact day as her Ladapo stunt, Polsky sat unmasked right next to another unmasked Democrat. Democratic immunity, I guess.
thecapitolist.com/video-shows-po…

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More from @kerpen

Phil Kerpen Profile picture
22 Oct
CDC flu testing MMWR week 41.

Second week of the new flu season.

This chart compares the week-of reports from CDC to week 41 last year and the prior five-year average. Image
CDC flu testing MMWR week 41, season-to-date through two weeks vs last year and prior five-year average using week-of reports. Image
ILI prints slightly down week 41. Image
Read 5 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
19 Oct
If MoCo reports 152 positives or less combined tomorrow and Thursday, it will drop under the 50/100K trigger which - if held for 7 days - will automatically lift the mask mandate under the current health order.
MoCo posted 73 positives. Need 79 or less tomorrow to hit the trigger. Image
MoCo 77 positives. Trigger is reached. Mask mandate ends automatically in 7 days if the next 7 days is also under 50 positives/100k pop.
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
15 Oct
Osterholm: "There is this viral interference."
Viral interference is a well-known (but poorly understood) phenomenon. Interference from rhinovirus is generally thought to have ended the swine flu epidemic in 2009.
thelancet.com/journals/lanmi…
This great short article from @m_soond explains the viral interference theory of flu vanishing when COV2 became epidemic.
medium.com/illumination-c…
Read 7 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
15 Oct
We have the first CDC Flu view report of the 2021-22 respiratory season.

Let's do a complete Friday ILI-Day thread for MMWR week 40.

cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…
Flu testing. Traditionally the clinical lab figures are the surveillance numbers, but a lot of testing has shifted to public health labs.

Comps are this year's week 40 to previous year's week 40 week-of reports, not final, to account for lag.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Here's CDC's ILI chart for this week. 2020-21 is now complete, and the baseline was never reached.
Read 17 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
20 Sep
Pediatric COVID and Flu Deaths
The burden estimates are the best measure of flu for many reasons explained by CDC:
cdc.gov/flu/about/burd…

Given hypertesting and the any-cause-of-death-after-positive-test definition, we have the opposite problem of overascertainment for COVID.
They do have the statistically modeled COVID pediatric deaths, 332 through May:
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…

But the footnote explains they didn't run the usual flu statistical model, but rather used the death cert count as a floor and ran the model on other deaths.
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
16 Sep
Biden, September 9, 2021:

"Tonight, I’m announcing we will increase the average pace of shipment across the country of free monoclonal antibody treatments by another 50 percent."

INCREASE.

Less than a week later he CUT allocations to southern states by 50%.
The Biden COVID plan posted on the White House website on September 9 is even more clear. Said the 50% increase would be *in September*. It's still there!

whitehouse.gov/covidplan/#care
Temporal equity is one heck of a euphemism for denying lifesaving treatment needed *now* in the south to stockpile it for *potential* winter use in the north.

Especially when Congress has already appropriated $$$ to buy as much more as needed.

phe.gov/emergency/even…
Read 4 tweets

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