When I was a kid, whole stretches of the UK coastline were filthy. There were places covered in industrial waste (literally black with coal waste). You could get advice on where the coast was too polluted to gather shellfish...
...you didn't go into the sea if you could see an outlet of any kind. The whole coastline was suspect, it was common enough for people to get sick after swimming in the sea...
...wild swimming? That wasn't a thing. Except for a few weirdos. Triathletes and people who did it competitively were extremely careful about where and how...
...what changed this is that by the late 80s we were starting to bring in EU rules on sewage outflow. We stopped pouring human and industrial waste into rivers and into the ocean...
...and now? People safely jump in to rivers. There is no longer an endless slick of poison in our streams. Otters, cormorants, all sorts of wildlife makes it up the tidal part of our rivers into London, Newcastle, anywhere there is brackish water...
...you don't encounter turds when plodging in the sea any more. And, yes, that was a thing. Our drinking water is cleaner - even in our cities its less heavily chlorinated most of the time because water companies aren't treating such filthy feed stock...
...Tory MP's, our government, just voted to go back to that. By dumping raw sewage in the rivers they voted for you and your children to be unsafe when rock-pooling...
...they voted to increase the danger of dysentery, typhoid, cryptosporidosis, campylobacter. They voted to kill the wildlife that has recolonised our waterways and coastlines...
...they voted to kill the remnants of the shellfish industry thats already on its knees due to Brexit. Why is that? The alternative was admitting they were wrong. bloomberg.com/news/articles/….
Brexit means destroying our environment. It means lowering our environmental standards because we can no longer afford a clean environment. It means poisoning our children with raw human effluent...
Brexit means swimming in shit. Is this fixable without rejoining the EU? This one issue, yes, it is. But we can't achieve that until our political class admit the cause of the problem. If we blindly blunder on, people will die due to this.
Its as simple as this - more shit in rivers means more shit in birds. Crudely, gulls swim in it, the eat it and things contaminated in it, and they shit in the reservoirs. The bacteria you shit out end up in your drinking water...
...and also the single biggest contaminant of water pipes is dirty water. The more shit in our rivers the more of this we're going to see. kentlive.news/news/kent-news…
There will be disease outbreaks due to this. There will be deaths. This isn't alarmism, its not scaremongering. Its an inevitability, everything we know about public health and transmissible disease says so. This is beyond scandalous, its murderous.
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Terrible Covid data in the UK today. 46558 cases and 93 deaths. Exponentials will bite you in the arse every single time. Here's the overall picture before delving deeper (1)
On exponential plots its fairly obvious whats going on. A straight line on a log plot means your're going up at an exponential rate. Cases and deaths are rising exponentially. (2)
93 deaths takes the 7 day total to 339. Its the highest single day total since the 24th of March, and the highest 7 day total since the 30th of March. And rising FAST. (3)
I think perhaps today I'll slant my regular look at Covid stats in the UK towards whats happened over the last 7 days, to give us a fuller view where we're going as we foolishly throw all caution to the wind. Here's the overall picture before a deep dive (1)
We've had 283 deaths over the last 7 days, up from 203. Thats a 40% rise in 7 days. (2)
The rate of rise has been more or less constant all week. Yes, its a lower base we're rising from, butwe continue to see deathsrising exponentially (3)
Overall Covid scenario in the UK isn't looking good. Its not all bad, but we're hitting some desperately grim milestones right now. Here's the overall picture. Strap in. This is gong to take some working through (1)
Deaths and cases are rising exponentially, but not on the same exponent. There is no such thing as an exponential rise in either thats not terrible news though (2)
37 deaths today is the highest single day total since St. Georges day, and the 7 day rolling average is over 20 now for the first time since the 29th of April. An exponential rise means things get worse at a proportionally constant speed - 1,2,4,8,16,32... (3)
I don't think positive tests will rise at the same rate today as we've seen previously, because last Monday we saw catch-up data missed on Sunday. On that trend we'd see 37625 to 38221 cases (1)
...but anything over 22868 is a rise. We could well go over 30k in a day for the first time. (2)
The monday lag means deaths should be low. 3-4 deaths would be on trend. Last Monday we saw 3 (3)
The problem for the government with mask wearing is that they are dogmatically individualistic in themselves but innately prejudiced against others. They don't believe in collective responsibility among themselves, but the DO hold others collectively responsible...
...see for reference governments treatment of immigrants. So the idea that we each do something to ensure the safety of everyone? Thats anathema to the modern Tory ideology. There are no One Nation Conservaties now...
...person A does something good of persons B, C, D, E and F, thats clearly a good thing. Tory ideology is persons B, C, D and E are responsible to doge what Person A does, not the other way round...
Just had another look at back calculating R (Covid infection rate) from hospitalisations as well as from deaths and recorded infections. I think I've got it now.
Hospitalisation requirements change, treatments change, testing regimens change with capacity and surge testing, I'm quite surprised the three calculations align as well as this
What does this tell us? Well, to line up R from hospital admissions we need to go eleven days back. That fits in well with the ONS data saying 6 days, especially for older folks, after showing symptoms (on average 5 days after infection). So peak hospitalisation is 11 days