Thread by @BaldingsWorld

This is a very very charitable interpretation not least if which is because the White House walked this exact statement back only a few minutes after he says it. However because he says it this leaves us two specific choices in his to interpret what he said 1/n

https://twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/1452280865514573836

First, he said the quiet part out loud maybe even as a signal to Beijing knowing his press people would walk out back. Possibly. Second, it was the standard Biden non sequitur his press people walk back shortly after he says something. I will generally leave the Rohrshach 2/n

Interpretation up to you as I leave the door open to either but will say my leaning is that he simply misspoke like the "agreement" about Taiwan he previously cited. However, let's assume for a moment he didn't misspeak and the (widely assumed though rarely spoken) assumption 3/n

The US intends to defend Taiwan is true. There is one key variable no one had spoken about. The depth of intent to defend. Does the US ship Taiwan done extra missiles and say we tried? Or do we mobilize troops from Japan and the Korean peninsula and go all in? Open question 4/n

Here's why this matters. Critics of Taiwan war simulations showing the US losing have said they don't matter as they are perky for educational purposes. However, those simulations where China wins frequently rely on the US exhibiting great restraint in a variety of ways 5/n

From not attacking PLA targets on the mainland to other willingness to impose mass casualties in Chinese troops. If one says, war games don't matter that requires not only a symbolic commitment to Taiwan to hold back China where they would stand a good chance of taking Taiwan 6/n

But a deep commitment to Taiwan willing to impose enormous costs in defense of the island. US policy has not made any commitment of that nature to Taiwan and the Biden adminstration has not changed UD policy to Taiwan. I personally lean yes, current administration would 7/n

Assist Taiwan in a conflict with Taiwan, but whether it would minimize the assets needed to defend the island remains a very open question. Done.