I'm sitting in an airport with random observations and thoughts. Here we go: 1. Having driven across the US and having hit some major cities during that time, Manhattan is far and away the worst of the bunch I've seen. So many empty store fronts seeking tenants 1/n
2. "Infrastructure" problem in the US is generally confined to a couple of places
3. I'm so happy to be in airports again, they are calming and cathartic
4. I ordered bibimbap. The Asian man gave me a fork. As I took chopsticks I wanted to yell racism. I didn't. I'm normal 2/n
5. I find it unnaturally infuriating when Asian restaurants in the US serve the wrong type of rice for whatever food they are serving. I shouldn't get that cheesed
6.7. Media and social media wildly overstate problems. I witness people of all colors and creeds work together 3/n
7. China doves and apologists are a wildly unserious group. They are basically saying they're is no piece of evidence or fact that will cause them to change their mind. These are not serious people or thinkers
8. Mask regs are only for pure theatrical purposes
4/n
9. China watchers that worry me more than doves or apologists are self processed "hawks" who are unwilling to take hard steps or impose costs. Actions must differentiate from apologists
10. White people really are crazy
11. I love meeting people from Asia. It's like home 5/n
12. TV news shows in all forms are garbage. They are very low information transmitters
13. Journalists are going to be automated out of existence.
14. US isn't close to realizing what it is in for with China
15. I need coffee and a good night's sleep
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Since real estate tax in China has people buzzing let me explain why virtually everything you're reading is thimble deep & missing the enormity of the importance and risks it is exacerbating. This may be a long thread. I will try and include links and will use simple examples 1/n
Let's start by positing that as a method of financing government revenue a yearly tax based upon some pre-defined measure say assessed value of the property is a much better method than land sales. So I have no disagreement with others who say it is. It is. But..... 2/n
People are saying this should be done have really given no thought to a variety of the problems, complications, and risks. This is why they stand around looking puzzled why this wasn't done years ago. So let's try to lay out as many of these secondary issues as possible 3/n
So let's return to China energy and journalism and what is really the problem with journalism is that by providing bad information it provides distorted understanding of how to solve the problem. When the China energy issue first started coming out the two issues mentioned 1/n
Were this was because of Xi's deeply held environmentalism (ok little embellishment here) and those freaking Australians. Why those two? Well they were in the news and vaguely had some link to the problem so let's mention them as the reason why even though any basic 2/n
Research would have shown that Australia coal plays a tiny part of Chinese energy and the environment well let's not go down that smog lined road but that what journos said it was. Why does this matter? It provides a very distorted really false or inaccurate picture of the 3/n
There's famous Biblical parable where a master goes away for sometime and leaves talents to his servants. The last servant returns upon the masters arrival and says here is the talent you gave me. The master asks what did you do with it while I was away. The servant responds 1/n
I buried it. This seems like a perfect analogy for the first year of the Biden administration foreign policy focusing on China and generally the world at large. The closest thing there would be to a significant new movement is AUKUS but that was instigated by Australia 2/n
Everything else is just nibbling at the edges backwards or forwards of everything Trump. Biden policy on China to date is just Trump. That's it. Period. Couple minor steps forward and a couple minor steps back but basically nothing. What is even more astounding 3/n
There is an important aspect to understanding how money, ideas, universities, and think tanks work. When donors give money to a university or think for let's say a "China Center" (though pretty much applies to anything else) everyone involved is smart enough to avoid the 1/n
Paper trail in litigation that would wreck them. By that I mean the public statements and private contracts will all say the right things about respecting academic freedom, no strings attached to the money, that allows them to claim no influence from donors 2/n
Put another way, I've personally never witnessed nor heard credible evidence of an academic or think tank publishing something because they were told what to say or were contractually obligated. However, that does not absolve universities or think tanks because what happens 3/n
Short thread on China electricity and epistemology. There is in all things a rush to impute motives or generate an understanding about a situation based upon pre-existing mental framework when the reality is we know very few facts about a situation. China electricity is great 1/n
I started hearing about this and other situations a few weeks ago but it made no sense why. There was no obvious reason why China should be facing electrical shortages. All of the narratives had glaring holes. It was only after talking to a number of people the pieces came 2/n
Together that was confirmed with multiple people. Now it is still important to note we really do not understand a lot here though the mechanics of the situation are clear. By that I mean, it is clear facts that end user price is fixed, generators buy basically at spot 3/n
I am happy to criticize Biden or any one for that matter but in this Biden is absolutely right. Let's hit the highlights. 1. Quad can cooperate because they share values but also because they share interests on China. Whether it is moving supply chains 1/n politico.eu/article/us-joe…
Or improving security cooperation and capabilities. Europe fails on both accounts. They want to cooperate more with China and are unprepared to do most anything on security about any of the big authoritarian problems. Add n Europe is dysfunctional to a degree that nothing 2/n
Happens, one wonders what they even bring to the table or if they can accomplish anything. 2. The underlying complaint from Europe is a divergent view of how each side views multilateralism. Add I have emphasized repeatedly, multilateralism is not an ends but s means 3/n