Thread by @KellerZoe

Modelling seen by the Govt predicts a fall in infections in November without implementing Plan B.

https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1452387768072605698

Scientists believe the virus is close to reaching endemic equilibrium and recent oscillations in case rates will soon settle down.

Epidemiologists at the LSHTM are projecting a smaller spring wave and have modelled the impact of Plan B restrictions in April: they found even if face coverings, WFH and vaccine certificates are introduced in the spring, it would only serve to delay deaths until next autumn.

Hospital admissions

Deaths

Much of the current wave is being driven by children. Scientific Govt sources expect the “children’s epidemic” to run out of steam soon as immunity in youngsters increases, via infection and vaccination. The October half term is also expected to help bring down cases.

Prof Edmunds said Plan B could still be useful next year "as it buys you time" to increase vaccination uptake, or introduce new drugs. However, the effect would be to delay not to prevent a later outbreak.

Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine, at East Anglia university: “… there comes a point when restrictions have no value because you’ve got as much protection as you’re going to get, so you end up putting it off to a point where you lose immunity.

What the modelling suggests is that even without Plan B, we should expect to see case numbers falling quite rapidly in the next few weeks. If correct, Christmas should see some of the lowest number of cases of Covid since late May/early June even without further restrictions.

If it's right, then this issue about whether we should be locking down is immaterial. We shouldn’t and the Government is doing the right thing.”