Modelling seen by the Govt predicts a fall in infections in November without implementing Plan B.
Scientists believe the virus is close to reaching endemic equilibrium and recent oscillations in case rates will soon settle down.
Epidemiologists at the LSHTM are projecting a smaller spring wave and have modelled the impact of Plan B restrictions in April: they found even if face coverings, WFH and vaccine certificates are introduced in the spring, it would only serve to delay deaths until next autumn.
Hospital admissions
Deaths
Much of the current wave is being driven by children. Scientific Govt sources expect the “children’s epidemic” to run out of steam soon as immunity in youngsters increases, via infection and vaccination. The October half term is also expected to help bring down cases.
Prof Edmunds said Plan B could still be useful next year "as it buys you time" to increase vaccination uptake, or introduce new drugs. However, the effect would be to delay not to prevent a later outbreak.
Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine, at East Anglia university: “… there comes a point when restrictions have no value because you’ve got as much protection as you’re going to get, so you end up putting it off to a point where you lose immunity.
What the modelling suggests is that even without Plan B, we should expect to see case numbers falling quite rapidly in the next few weeks. If correct, Christmas should see some of the lowest number of cases of Covid since late May/early June even without further restrictions.
If it's right, then this issue about whether we should be locking down is immaterial. We shouldn’t and the Government is doing the right thing.”

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More from @KellerZoe

25 Oct
Hugh Montgomery, professor of intensive care at University College London: “I’m fed up with anti-vaxxers and Covid-deniers taking up ICU beds”.
telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness…
“We are running three beds to one nurse. It’s supposed to be 1:1,” says Montgomery. The problem is exacerbated by the burden of keeping Covid patients isolated. “We cannot put a Covid patient next to a cancer or hip-replacement patient, so we are running two health services.
It’s not fair. We have got a disease we now understand, a safe vaccine that works, but the wards are full of people who don’t believe that to be true.” 
Montgomery is exasperated by the conspiracy theories peddled by anti-vaxxers.
Read 5 tweets
24 Oct
The EU is still attempting a colonial power grab. EU concessions do not solve NIP fundamental problems. To get rid of all of them, the EU law must be extirpated from NI.

— from Martin Howe QC (Chairman of Lawyers For Britain) article

telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/2…
Coverage of the NIP has focussed on disruption to trade. But this is just a symptom of an underlying fundamental issue. The NIP imposes in NI a huge number of EU laws, subject to interpretation by the EU Court, amendment by the EU Parliament, and enforcement by the EU Commission.
They include the EU laws on licensing and marketing of medicines. Once the present “grace period” expires, medicines (including vaccines) authorised by the UK regulator will be illegal in NI unless and until they receive authorisation under the EU’s cumbersome system.
Read 15 tweets
24 Oct
Poland is learning, as Britain did, that the EU will never let its members be sovereign. They must make a fundamental choice between being part of a state-in-the-making and secession

— sum up from Daniel Hannah’s article

telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/2…
European nations freed themselves from the medieval Empire by refusing to recognize its “imperium” over them.
‘Rex, superiorem non recognoscens, in regno suo est imperator’.
This the essence of sovereignty, the pillar of the theory of the modern state.
The EU was always about sovereignty. Who gives orders and who takes them. Poland’s leaders are discovering what Cameron discovered when he tried to shore up the legal supremacy of the UK Parliament, namely that Eurocrats are adept at doublethink.
Read 29 tweets
21 Oct
Decarbonisation is not a global burden to share, it’s a bonanza for those quick to seize it, a growth accelerant. Oxford sees a $26 trillion gain from #NetZero. The Wright’s Law ( i.e. falling prices ) of technology is stronger than politics.

telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/…
A team of mathematicians at Oxford University has carried out the world’s best study so far of the economic windfall to be had from a turbo-charged decarbonisation based on unstoppable leaps and bounds in already known technology. See: inet.ox.ac.uk/files/energy_t…
It concluded that the net gain is $26 trillion (£19 trillion), or $14 trillion under cautious assumptions. The faster it happens, the bigger the benefit. It can be achieved in 25 years, beating the global target of 2050. Most changes do not require state funding anymore.
Read 27 tweets
28 Sep
China's crunch will rock the whole world. China demand is already wilting and that's the cure for high energy prices.
by AEP
telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/…
China’s energy crunch is happening for much the same reasons as in Europe. Covid upset the rhythms of the global fuel market. The weather was extreme: drought hit hydro-power. The hot summer boosted air conditioning. The result was an explosion in demand for coal and gas.
The cost of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) in Shanghai reached $26 MBBtu, luring away shipments to Europe's depleted inventories. China is now the world’s biggest LNG importer: in Aug it bought 6.4m tonnes (compared to 4.9m by Europe + Turkey combined).
Read 25 tweets
26 Sep
The Kremlin has taken advantage of an acute global gas shortage to weaponize flows to Europe, warns Ukraine’s gas king.
by AEP
telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/…
Yuriy Vitrenko (head of the Ukrainian energy and pipeline nexus Naftogaz) warns that the geopolitics of the European escalating gas war with Russia are intractable. The coming supply crunch is likely to force brutal demand destruction in industry and homes.
The Kremlin has taken advantage of an acute global gas shortage to weaponise flows to Europe. But, according to him, a Western capitulation to Putin’s gas blackmail would embolden Russia to launch a full-scale war on former Soviet territory.
Read 34 tweets

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