ELECTION 2019 - Last night PM Johnson once again called for a December 12th general election. "If [Parliament] genuinely want more time to study this excellent deal they can have it but they have to agree to a genreal election"
Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn refused to be drawn: "“Tomorrow the EU will decide whether there’s going to be an extension or not,” Corbyn told broadcasters this evening. “That extension will obviously encompass whether there’s a no-deal or not. Let’s find that out tomorrow.”
Corbyn has previously said Labour will back an election as soon as the EU agrees an extension to the looming Article 50 deadline. Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, an early election bill requires a two thirds majority in the Commons, and therefore needs Labour support
Labour MPs are divided over the prospect of an early vote. Neil Coyle tells @paulwaugh 140 have contacted Corbyn telling him to oppose the bill. Shadow Cabinet Minister Jon Trickett is more bullish: "Our troops are ready, the party is fully prepared. Let’s get at them!!”
@paulwaugh EU leaders will be meeting at 10am today Brussels time to discuss the UK's application for an Article 50 extension. It is unclear when a decisions will arrive, or how long the extension offered will be.
Treasury advisors announced last night that the Budget scheduled for November 6th will be cancelled less than a day after Chancellor Sajid Javid announced on ITV's Peston that it would be going ahead.
ELECTION 2019 - Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn last night rejected Boris Johnson's call for an early election. "We absolutely support an early election", Corbyn said, but insisted the possibility of "no deal" Brexit needed to be taken "off the table" before his party would back one
ELECTION 2019 - EU leaders agreed yesterday to extend the Article 50 deadline, which fell on October 31st, but have not agreed a new date. Chancellor Sajid Javid admitted yesterday that the government's deadline to deliver Brexit by Oct 31st "could not be met"
ELECTION 2019 - Sir John Curtice @whatukthinks on the possibility of a Christmas election: "It might be argued it is rather more difficult to hold an election in December now than it once was...we're happy to go out in the winter for Christmas, but apparently not for politics"
ELECTION 2019 - The FT's @PickardJE reports that Labour MPs will be whipped to abstain on Monday's early election vote, with one senior figure telling him "“Right now it feels like we have no strategy, no message, no message discipline,”
ELECTION 2019: Ash Sarkar @AyoCaesar of @novaramedia is more bullish tweeting “The time for a general election is now — you’ve got the policies , you’ve got the activists, and you’ve got a plan to sort out Brexit in 6 months. Hit the big red button.”
ELECTION 2019: In the @nytimes @jennirsl reports Britain is heading for a "scorched earth" election - "It will be nihilism", one Conservative insider tells her - "If you campaign in fury you will govern in the interests of rage". nytimes.com/2019/10/26/opi…
@nytimes @jennirsl ELECTION 2019: an update on the polling situation from @JohnRentoul

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More from @robfordmancs

18 Oct
Its one year since Brexitland was published! In case you aren't familiar with the arguments @ProfSobolewska and I make, here's the "graph of the day" thread I did summarising some of the key data driven points

@ProfSobolewska And here's @ProfSobolewska 's "quote of the day" thread picking out some of the most important arguments made in the book text

@ProfSobolewska Identity divides between graduates and school leavers, ethnic minorities and identity conservative white voters, have continued to reshape our politics since the book came out.
Read 10 tweets
17 Oct
Good thread. As it is likely impossible to end online anonymity, we need better social and institutional mechanisms to address its disinhibatory effects. That is hard to do, but it needs doing.
I feel this will have to be a collective effort. We need to build a social media "immune system", with multiple lines of defence, to shut out toxic actors and violent, prejudiced and hostile discourse. Ultimately, its going to be a job for all of us.
Of course, social media platforms should reforms systems which promote toxicitiy. But there are also many ways we are users could help marginalise bad actors ourselves. What happens to people who behave offline like bad actors behave online? They are socially shamed & shunned
Read 13 tweets
13 Oct
Voters can recall an MP in the event of a conviction (as happened in Peterborough in June 2019 and Brecon & Radnorshire in August 2019). I expect such a recall petition would be quite likely in Leicester East, and would trigger a v interesting contest 1/?
Webbe's 2019 selection for Leicester East, to replace long serving MP Keith Vaz, one of the first BAME MPs elected in 1987, was very contentious. Half a dozen Indian origin Labour councillors attacked Corbyn, accusing him of a policy of excluding Hindu candidates
The swing against Labour in Leicester East was by far the largest against the party in an ethnically diverse seat, the most plausible explanation being large numbers of Indian origin voters swinging away from the party as Webbe replaced Vaz.
Read 6 tweets
12 Oct
Agree with this - the case for autumn lockdown from past evidence here and elsewhere was overwhelming, and the grim inevitability of disaster was obvious to anyone who understood exponential growth. Yet they delayed, and delayed, and delayed.
I vividly remember a growing feeling of nausea watching all the utter nonsense about "saving Christmas" being put about in the Conservative press (who are also culpable here), eagerly embraced by ministers including the PM. They can't pretend now the risks were not obvious then.
*Particularly* important on this front is what we learned soon after, but many in govt must have known in early autumn - namely that effective vaccines were at most a few months away from delivery. To not lock down given that knowledge was a lethal blunder of major proportions.
Read 4 tweets
11 Oct
There is more I want to say on this topic when I have time (a theme I will return to shortly) but I want to say that I *profoundly* disagree with this kind of "unless you're shouting about it on Twitter, you condone it" argument, which is both illiberal and counterproductive
Firstly, it is patently absurd to claim that you are a proponent of academic freedom while also saying "unless you loudly support this behaviour/campaign/opinion/judgement, you are the enemy". The whole *point* of academic freedom is freedom to *disagree*.
Secondly, there are a whole host of legitimate reasons why academics, with or without "public profiles" might want to refrain from engaging in a particular controversy. Matt, typically, treats the situation as a simplistic black & white morality play. It usually is not.
Read 10 tweets
11 Oct
I don't think I ever argued threats to academic freedom were non-existent. What I in fact argued, which is very different, is that many of those campaigning for academic freedom did so on the basis of evidence which did not stand up to scrutiny.
I did this very specifically, on a case by case basis, using evidence sources that individuals such as @goodwinmj and Eric Kaufmann (who I can't include in this discussion of freedom of academics to disagree on Twitter because he blocked me for disagreeing with him)
@GoodwinMJ Here is one thread where I did that. Readers can judge for themselves whether Matthew's description of my position is fair:

Read 10 tweets

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