@Majikula @LisaMarieBoothe You can also work it out with arithmetic. The vaccines are 80 percent or more effective at preventing infection, so compared to an unvaccinated population, that means only 1/5th as many infections. This means 4 of 5 won't transmit the virus. That suffices. But then ...
@Majikula @LisaMarieBoothe breakthrough infections are relatively rare anyway, so among the 1/5th who get the disease anyway, only a smaller percentage get a breakthrough, and without an infection, you can't transmit, So let's assume that 10 vaccinated get an infection anyway. ...
@Majikula @LisaMarieBoothe So assume you pulled the short straw and you're one of the 1/10th of 1/5th who is fully vaccinated but still gets sick. Then your case is likely less severe and shorter duration. Again, with limited data it's hard to say how much shorter, so let's just take a guess ...
@Majikula @LisaMarieBoothe and say it's half as long. So you're infectious for half the time.
And now we math. only 1/5th of the population isn't immune post-vaccination; only 1/10th actually catch it; of those they're infectious only 1/2 as long. 1/5 x 1/10 x 1/2 is 1/100th. So the vaccine ...
And now we math. only 1/5th of the population isn't immune post-vaccination; only 1/10th actually catch it; of those they're infectious only 1/2 as long. 1/5 x 1/10 x 1/2 is 1/100th. So the vaccine ...
@Majikula @LisaMarieBoothe So with that data and those assumptions, the COVID vaccine reduces transmission about 100 times. And note that this conclusion is insensitive to the assumptions: as long as each of those terms is less than 1, the transmission reduction is greater than 1. ...
@Majikula @LisaMarieBoothe And that concludes my proof.
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