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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

28 Oct

The youth vote in VA is begin to trend upward in the early vote, after a slow start. Still lagging far behind 2020, but closing. Keep in mind, the youth vote share doesn't need to be at presidential levels for Dems to win.

Also impressive, the African American early vote share is well substantially ahead of the AA share at the same point in the 2017 cycle.

Annnd that's a frustrating typo: "well substantially"

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

27 Oct

TargetSmart isn’t just a data company, we’re the leading progressive data firm. We work with state parties, progressive orgs and non-profits (like organized labor).

Like numerous other progressive firms, we are owned by a holding company that owns other firms. Those holding companies include firms that will work on opposite sides of the aisle, with varying frequency. You wouldn’t know that from the MJ story.

I know how we operate: we're independent of other firms– full stop. We are not involved in, or responsible for work done at other companies.

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

20 Oct

We'll be releasing our two weeks out analysis of the early vote in VA shortly. The short version is that there are largely good signs for Dems, but some important areas of underperformance that will need to be addressed in the remaining 13 days.

I'll flag now, one of the most concerning areas of turnout underperformance in VA is among young voters. Voters <30 account for less than half of their 2020 vote share at this point (5.2% vs 10.7%) and slightly more than half their '17 share (9.8%).

In Albermarle County (home to UVA), voters under the age of 30 are underperforming even more severely: accounting for only 4.8% of votes cast thus far, compared to 12.5% at this point in '20 and 12.8% in '17.

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

10 Oct

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1447208506592006146

This is a thoughtful exploration of what seems to be the hot political twitter subject of the week. I'll share my own, less well-organized thoughts here.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1447208506592006146

First, the Shor conclusion that Dems are facing massive structural hurdles in the Senate/electoral college is inarguable, along with the notion that Dem campaigns need to empower a more diverse generation of leaders.

Unfortunately, I think some of the reporting on Shor's worldview has created a caricature of Dem campaign messaging being driven by a group of 20-something year old wildly liberal staffers. The messaging from most campaign ads is driven by the pollster (who is not 20-something).

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

4 Mar

This will come across as pedantic, but I believe it's important: We need to stop talking about how groups "swung" from one election to another, as if it's the exact same people voting in each election, especially when talking about voters of color.

First, let me say I am likely as guilty of this as anyone. But as an example, many are talking about how Latino voters swung by 8 or 9% towards the GOP from '16 to '20 (citing the Shor interview here, which I mostly agree with) nymag.com/intelligencer/…

Does this mean that 8 or 9% of Latino Clinton voters supported Trump? Nope. It means that if you compare Clinton's support from Latino voters to Biden's, the difference appears to be about 8 or 9 pts. The trick is, these are two different pools of voters (with a large overlap).

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

19 Feb

In the first few days after the election, some pointed to partial results in Philly as evidence that Black voters had swung to Trump. Now we have the individual vote history and can say that almost certainly didn't happen.

The early results showed a lower overall turnout and better Trump performance than the final certified results. In the end, Trump outperformed his '16 share by 2.5 pts. Biden ran 1.1 pts behind Clinton. So, was this gap narrowed due to Black voters going for Trump? Probably not.

Now that we have individual vote history we can see how the electorate in '20 differed from '16: 9k fewer Dems voted in Philly than did in '16, while GOP turnout increased by almost 4k. The Dem vote share dropped by 1.4 pts (more than Biden's 1.1 pt lag behind Clinton).

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